This bulletin covers the period from April to July, during which summer crops (maize, soybean, and rice) reached maturity and were harvested. The exception is maize in the northeast, which will be harvested starting in October. Wheat, sown from April to May, was nearing its peak growth by the end of July. Overall, crop conditions in Brazil were below the 5-year average and last year's conditions.

The growing season for summer crops was characterized by drier and warmer weather than usual. National agro-climatic indicators showed generally unfavorable conditions: 37% below average rainfall, 2.1°C higher temperatures, and 5% above average radiation (RADPAR). This resulted in a 24% decrease in Biomass (BIOMSS) compared to the 15-year average. Prolonged dry and warm weather impacted almost the entire country, with all major agricultural states experiencing rainfall deficits and above-average temperatures (+0.4°C in Alagoas to +3.3°C in São Paulo). Amapá recorded the highest rainfall at 1527mm. Radiation departures varied from -15% in Rio Grande do Sul to +15% in São Paulo. The dry and hot conditions led to significant BIOMSS reductions in key agricultural states, especially in São Paulo (-51%) and Goiás (-47%).

The crop development profile based on NDVI for Brazil presents below-average values. The distribution of NDVI departure from the 5YA and the corresponding profiles further illustrate the spatial variations of crop growth conditions. Crop conditions varied greatly, especially since May. Most crops in Mato Grosso Do Sul and Sao Paulo (in red color on the NDVI departure cluster map) presented slightly above average crop conditions although the region experienced a rainfall deficit. The major reason is the irrigation systems along the Parana River which provide sufficient water for second crops in the region, mitigating the meteorological drought. However, only 12% of the cropland in Brazil is irrigated, while most areas in Brazil are rainfed. In contrast to the irrigated fields, crop growth conditions presented below average conditions in the rainfed regions as dry weather conditions played a decisive role. It is worth mentioning that at the same time, southern Brazil suffered from extreme heavy rainfall, resulting in floodings, which also had a negative impact on crop growth. The VCIx map shows a similar spatial pattern with relatively high VCIx values in the regions along the Parana River and Rio Grande Do Sul while other regions present low VCIx.

Despite insufficient precipitation and high temperature, according to the VCIx map, the values across the country are still close to average. The national VCIx is 0.91. The dry weather did not significantly affect the crop cultivation and the CALF was at 100%, comparable with the 5YA. The CPI value for Brazil is 0.98, below the 5YA as well as the the same period during the last two years.

Overall, crop conditions in Brazil were below average, and CropWatch estimates suggest average wheat outputs.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna (31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37).

Similar to the dry and hot weather pattern at the national level, across all AEZs, there was a notable deficiency in rainfall, ranging from -17% to -85% compared to the average. However, the Southern subtropical rangelands exhibited a surplus of rainfall, with 41% above the average. Heavy rainfall has led to widespread flooding across Rio Grande do Sul, in particular the state capital Porto Alegre, impacting agriculture, infrastructure, and communities. Above average temperatures were recorded in the eight AEZs, with the largest positive departure of temperature in the Parana basin (+2.9°C) above the 15YA. Meanwhile, above average RADPAR was also observed in most AEZs except for Southern subtropical rangelands (-15%). The continuous dry, hot, and sunny weather conditions in all AEZs hampered crop growth and resulted in lower BIOMSS from -9% to -32%, except for Southern subtropical rangelands(+12%). Among the AEZs, crop condition in Parana River was well below average with the lowest BIOMSS (-32%) compared to other AEZs. The largest VCIx was observed in Nordeste at 0.95, while Parana basin presented the lowest VCIx at 0.89.

Adverse weather conditions resulted in generally below average crop development in all AEZs but at different levels. 

In the Central Savanna (31), Mato Grosso (34), and the Paraná Basin (36)—the primary production areas for maize and soybeans—rainfall was below average. Despite this, crop growth conditions remained close to normal, as indicated by the NDVI-based crop development profiles. Although the reduced rainfall led to lower BIOMSS, normal soil moisture levels, supported by irrigation, benefited the crops. The Crop Production Index (CPI) values for these AEZs were 0.96, 0.98, and 0.96, respectively, suggesting that crop production prospects are normal.

Among the other AEZs, crop conditions in Nordeste (35) were above average. NDVI profiles indicate that crop growth in Nordeste was above or close to average throughout the monitoring period. In the Southern Subtropical Rangelands (37), crop conditions were also favorable from January to early May, with above-average vegetation greenness for the region. However, heavy rainfall in early May caused significant flooding, adversely affecting the harvest and damaging some summer crops nearing maturity, as well as some early-stage wheat. Sentinel-1 satellite remote sensing data reveals that about 115,000 hectares of cropland in northeastern Rio Grande do Sul were inundated (see figure n). Given the region's importance as a major agricultural and livestock hub and a key export route, this flooding is expected to have a substantial impact on both agricultural production and the local economy. The severe flooding led to a notable decline in the vegetation index from mid-May, which continued through June, with a slow recovery beginning in July. Nevertheless, the abundant rainfall also replenished soil moisture, which may benefit wheat crops in non-flooded areas. CPI values for Nordeste (35) and Southern Subtropical Rangelands (37) were 1.10 and 1.05, respectively, while VCIx values were 0.95 and 0.91. With CALF values 2%  above the 5YA, maize production in the Nordeste as well as wheat production in the Southern Subtropical Rangelands (CALF 0.91) are expected to exceed the  5-year average.

For more indicators and detailed information, please visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.5 Brazil’s crop condition, April – July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops      

(b) Maximum VCI  

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil 

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure from 5YA and NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters 

(e) Potential biomass departure from 15YA   

(f) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index 

(g) CPI time series graph

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna 

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(n) Severe flooding occurred at the northeast of Rio Grande do Sul

Table 3.14  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, April-July 2024

Table 3.15  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, April-July 2024