Key messages:

• Significant precipitation deficit impacted crop growth across Ethiopia.

• Overall average crop conditions, with some regions like Western mixed maize zone near normal, and others like Central-northern maize-teff and Southeastern Mendebo highlands close to normal despite lower rainfall.

• Overall prospects  for  the main rainy season crop production are promising.

Advisory/Recommendations

• Given that the overall prospects for the main rainy season crop production are promising, it is advisable to continue regular remote sensing monitoring to quickly identify any changes in crop conditions.

• Closely monitor the regions that have experienced significant precipitation deficits to assess the need for any intervention that could mitigate the impact on crop growth.

• Raise farmers’ awareness to monitor their fields regularly and take control measures when necessary.
  
  

Ethiopia

This monitoring period from April 2024 to July 2024 covers the planting season of the Meher (main rainy season) crops.  The main crops are maize, wheat, teff, and sorghum. On a national scale, cumulative rainfall decreased by 14% compared to the 15-year average (15YA). In contrast, there has been a slight change in the average temperature, with a rise of 1.1°C compared to the 15YA, while photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) showed a small change (2%). The NDVI curve was near average levels (5-year average) at the beginning of April, and remained below the 5-year average until the end of July. The current Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) intensity reached 0.94. The Crop Production Index (CPI) stood at 0.93, which is lower than last year's value of 1.17. Estimated biomass (BIOMSS) was 3% lower than the 15-year average. Rainfall was below average in May and June, but reached average levels starting in July, which helped improve the NDVI curve to reach close to average levels. Prospects  for  the main rainy season crop production are promising.

Regional analysis

This regional analysis centres on five key cereal production areas: the Central-northern maize-teff highlands (63), Great Rift region (65), South-eastern Mendebo highlands (71), South-western coffee-Enset highlands (73), and Western mixed maize zone (74).

Cumulative rainfall in AEZ 63 and AEZ 74 exhibited below average compared to 15YA (-18 and -19 %) respectively. Biomass levels followed a comparable pattern with the rainfall compared to the 15YA (BIOMSS -6% and -2%) respectively for AEZ 63 and 74. CPI values for these region (AEZ 63= 0.93, AEZ 73= 0.97, and AEZ 74= 0.98) show that crop production situation is normal and a better crop production situation Cropped arable land fraction remained relatively stable, except for AEZ 63, which experienced a decrease in cropped arable land fraction (-3%).

The South-western coffee-Enset highlands (73) were similarly affected by moisture stress. Rainfall was notably lower at -9% compared to the 15YA. In contrast, the Great Rift region (65) experienced above-average rainfall, recording a 13% increase. Biomass levels in (73) were estimated at 2% compared to the 15YA, while in (65), biomass showed an increase of 4%. Cropped arable land fraction and cropping intensity remained mostly unchanged across both regions.

In summary, Ethiopia's agricultural landscape from April to July 2024 was characterized by regional disparities. While some areas like the Western mixed maize zone maintained normal crop conditions, others such as the Northern Arid Area faced critical challenges. The Semi-arid pastoral areas struggled with decreased precipitation affecting livestock production, whereas the Central-northern maize-teff and Southeastern Mendebo highlands managed to keep conditions close to normal despite lower rainfall. The South-eastern mixed maize zone had average conditions for autumn grain production. Overall, the country's agricultural prospects for the Meher season crops were influenced by a combination of decreased rainfall, slightly higher temperatures, and increased radiation, with NDVI values and VCI indicating the health and potential productivity of the vegetation.

Figure 3.5 Ethiopia's crop condition, April 2024 - July 2024 

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition developmnet graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profile

(f) Time series profile of rainfall

(g) Time series profile of temperature 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff hihlands (left) Great Rift region (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-eastern Mendebo hihlands (left) and South-western coffe-enset highlands (right)

(j) Crop condition develoment graph based on NDVI (Western mixed maize zone)

(k) CPI Time Series in Bulletin 3

Table 1. Ethiopia's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2024 - July 2024

Table 2. Ethiopia's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April 2024- July 20204