During this monitoring period, winter wheat reached the flowering stage in mid to late May. Subsequent grainfilling was completed by mid July. According to the crop condition development graph, crops experienced average or below-average conditions in the whole monitoring period.  Rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +5%, TEMP +0.3°C), and radiation was below average (RADPAR -6%). Above rainfall and temperature resulted in above average biomass (BIOMSS +5%). The seasonal RAIN  profile presents above-average rainfall in April, mid-May, late May and early July, and below-average rainfall in the other time of the monitoring period. The seasonal TEMP profile also fluctuated around the average trend.

The national average VCIx was 0.89. CALF (100%). It was unchanged compared to its five-year average.  The crop production index was 0.94. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 66.8% of arable land experienced average crop conditions (blue line and dark green line), mainly in south and east of England. (2) 7.7% of arable land experienced average crop conditions before June to decreased crop conditions in July (red and orange line). (3) 25.5% of arable land (green line) experienced below-average crop conditions in most of the monitoring period with a marked drop of crop conditions in late April, mainly in the east of England. Most likely, the large drops in NDVI can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. Altogether, the conditions for wheat in the UK are assessed to be average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished: Northern barley region（84), Central sparse crop region（83), and Southern mixed wheat and barley region (85). All three sub-regions were characterized by unchanged fractions of arable land (CALF) compared to the 5-year average.

In the Northern barley region, NDVI was close to average. Radiation was significantly below average (RADPAR -9%) and rainfall was slightly below average (RAIN -1%). Temperature was above average (TEMP +0.2°C). Comprehensive agro-climatic conditions resulted in slightly above- average biomass (BIOMSS, +2%). The VCIx was at 0.91. Crop production index was 0.92. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be average.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the country's major agricultural regions for crop production. Crop conditions were similar to the Northern barley region. This region experienced above-average rainfall and temperature ( RAIN +6%， TEMP +0.3°C), while the radiation was below average (RADPAR -6%). Comprehensive agro-climatic conditions result in slightly above-average biomass (BIOMSS, +3%). The VCIx was at 0.93. Crop production index was 0.97. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be average.

In the Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was also similar to the other sub-national regions. This region experienced above-average rainfall and temperature ( RAIN +8%， TEMP +0.3°C), while the radiation was below average (RADPAR -5%). The biomass (BIOMSS, +8%) was above average because of above-average rainfall and temperature. The VCIx was at 0.88. Crop production index was 0.94. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be average. 

Figure 3.17 United Kingdom crop condition, April‐July 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI   (c) Maximum VCI 

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region  (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

(i) CPI Time Series graph

Table 3.25 United Kingdom's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April ‐July 2024

Table 3.26 United Kingdom's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, April‐July 2024