Spring wheat was cultivated in most of the country during this monitoring period in Kazakhstan. Sowing took place in May and harvest will start in mid-August. Crop production in Kazakhstan is mostly rainfed, as only 3% of the cropland is under irrigation. 

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated precipitation increased significantly by 53%,  temperature was above average by 0.2°C,  while the radiation was below average by 5%. During the reporting period, decadal precipitation was mostly above the average level, and it exceeded the 15-year maximum values in early June, late June, early July, and mid-July, while it was  below the 15-year average in late April only. The dekadal temperature was mostly close to the 15-year average from April to July, except for the late May. The abundant rainfall and warmer temperatures resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 21%.

The CropWatch agronomic indicator shows favorable crop growth and productions. The Crop Production Index (CPI) for Kazakhstan was 1.45, indicating that the overall growth condition of crops was quite good with an increase of 0.58 compared to the average of the past five years. Throughout the monitoring period, the average maximum VCI value reached 1.07, with the largest area proportion where VCIx was greater than 0.8 mainly concentrated in the northern region of Kazakhstan. As shown in the crop condition development graph and the NDVI profiles at the national level, NDVI in April was almost close to the five-year average. Starting from early May, it gradually exceeded the five-year average level, and above the five-year maximum value from mid-June to the end of July. These observations are confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: 60.6% of the areas were above the five-year average from mid-April to mid-July; NDVI values in 18.9% of the croplands, distributed in most of South region and some areas of northwest and northeast regions, were the below the five-year average from April to early July, but above the five-year average in mid-July; NDVI values in 20.5% of the croplands, mainly distributed in the central north region, were mostly below the five-year average from April to June, and above the the five-year average in July.

Overall, the agroclimatic conditions during the monitoring period were favorable. The production of spring wheat are forcasted to be high.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111), and the South region (110).

In the northern region, the accumulated precipitation increased significantly by 64%, and the temperatures were also above the average by  0.3°C, while radiation was below the average level by 5%. The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 26%. The NDVI values were gradually increasing during the monitoring period, exceeding the five-year average after mid-May, and surpassing the five-year maximum in June and July. CALF value in the region is 97%, which is 39% higher compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI is 1.11, and the CPI is 1.53, indicating favorable conditions for crop production.

In the eastern plateau and southeastern regions, the significant increase of accumulated precipitation  resulted in potential biomass being 9% higher than the average. The NDVI values were above the five-year average during the monitoring period, exceeding the five-year maximum by the end of May, and then gradually decreasing. CALF value in the region is 96% with an increase of 8% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI is 0.99, and the CPI is 1.29, indicating favorable crop growth and crop productions.

In the southern region, the accumulated precipitation was far above the average by 46%, and the temperature was also above the average  (△TEMP +0.4°C), while radiation (△RADPAR -6%) was below the average. The combined effect of agroclimatic indicators has resulted in potential biomass being 7% higher than average. The weather conditions in the region were favorable during the monitoring period. NDVI values gradually increased but remained below the five-year average except for early and mid-May. The CALF value is 55%, with a decrease of 3% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI is 0.77, and the current CPI is 1.06, indicating fair crop growth and yields.

Figure 3.25 Kazakhstan’s crop condition, April-July2024

(a)Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index 

(e) Temperature Index 

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (g) NDVI profiles

(h)CPI

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and southeastern region)

Table 3.39 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July2024

Table 3.40 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April-July2024