Kenya has two distinct rainy seasons. The long rains extend from March through late May, while the short rains span from late October to December. Maize cultivation is feasible during both the long and short rains, whereas wheat cultivation exclusively takes place during the long rains. This report encompasses the monitoring phase spanning from April to July 2024, addressing the initial planting and early growth phases of long rainy season maize and wheat crops.

At the national level, rainfall (RAIN -17%) was below the 15-year average (15YA), temperature (TEMP +0.9°C) was above 15YA and the solar radiation (RADPAR +1%) was close to the 15YA. Due to decreased rainfall, biomass (BIOMSS -7%) was below average. The rainfall dynamics graph shows that the rainfall was high from April to early May and decreased from mid-May to July. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI was above average in the entire monitoring period. The VCIx of most of the arable land was greater than 0.8. According to NDVI clusters and corresponding departure profiles, the NDVI values in most of the arable land were close to or above the average, while the NDVI in southeastern Kenya (red area) was significantly below the average from May to July. The VCIx was 0.95, CALF was 98%, CPI was 1.06, the crop production condition is favourable.

Regional analysis

Considering cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Kenya can be divided into four distinct sub-national agro-ecological regions: the Eastern Coastal Region (113), the Highland Agriculture Zone (114), the Northern Region (115), and the Southwest Region (116).

The Eastern coastal region experienced a positive departure in rainfall (+5%). Rainfall was mainly concentrated in April and early May, favoring maize and wheat growing, so that NDVI values were greater than the 5-year average (5YA) from late May to July there was a significant decrease in rainfall, and NDVI was below the 5YA. The temperature (TEMP +0.8°C) was above the 15YA. The VCIx reached 0.85 and the CPI was 1.00. Generally, the crop production condition is generally normal during the monitoring period. 

In the Highland agriculture zone, the rainfall was 12% below the 15YA, temperature (TEMP +0.9°C) and the solar radiation (RADPAR +3%) was above-average, which resulted in below-average biomass (BIOMSS -4%). Rainfall is abundant from April to early May, which is favorable for crop growth. The VCIx was 0.96 and CALF was 100%. The CPI was 1.08. According to the agro-climatic indicators, crop production condition were favourable.

In the Northern region, the rainfall was 8% above the 15YA, temperature (TEMP +1°C) was above-average, and the biomass was near-average. High rainfall in April favored crop growth and contributed to a rapid increase in NDVI values. During the monitoring period, NDVI values remained above the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.94 and the CALF was 95% above the 15YA. The CPI was 1.23. Benefiting from the abundant precipitation, the crop production condition were favourable. 

In the Southwest region, the rainfall was 64% below the 15YA with the largest negative departure in four subzones, and the solar radiation (RADPAR -3%) was below-average, which resulted in below-average biomass (BIOMSS -28%). High rainfall from late April to early May corresponded to NDVI values higher than the 5-year average, after which rainfall continued to decrease and NDVI values also continued to decrease. The VCIx was 0.94 and the CPI was 1.01, CALF was 100%, indicating that crop growth was normal during the monitoring period. 

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, April-July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Time series rainfall pofile

(d) Time series temperature pofile

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(g) National CPI time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern coastal region)

(i) Time series rainfall pofile (Eastern coastal region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Highland agriculture zone)

(k) Time series rainfall pofile  (Highland agriculture zone)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern region)

(m) Time series rainfall pofile (Northern region)

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southwest region)

(o) Time series rainfall pofile (Southwest region)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2024

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2024