During this monitoring period, wheat reached maturity by late April and was harvested in May and June, while maize matured by late May and was harvested in June and July. Cumulative rainfall was 32 mm, 66% lower than the 15-year average (15YA). The rainfall index graph shows precipitation below the 15YA throughout the period. The average temperature was 20.8°C, 0.5°C above the 15YA, with temperatures fluctuating around the 15YA. RADPAR exceeded the 15YA by 1%, while BIOMSS was 14% below. Morocco already suffered from a rainfall deficit during the previous monitoring periods, which explains the below average NDVI values at the beginning of this monitoring period. The continuing lack of rainfall exacerbated the situation: The nationwide NDVI development graph indicates that crop conditions were below the 5-year average (5YA) during the entire monitoring period. NDVI spatial patterns show 83.8% of the cultivated area below the 5YA and 16.2% fluctuating around it.  The CALF was 1% below the 5YA, with a VCIx value of 0.55, confirming unfavorable crop conditions.

Overall, Morocco's crop production faces significant challenges due to prolonged drought conditions, with reduced rainfall leading to below-average crop condition and smaller harvests.

Regional Analysis

CropWatch delineates three agroecological zones (AEZs) relevant to crop production in Morocco: The Sub-humid northern highlands (area identified as 125 in the crop condition clusters map), the Warm semiarid zone (126), and the Warm subhumid zone (127).

Rainfall was below the 15YA by 61%, 73%, and 61% in the Sub-humid northern highlands, Warm semiarid zone, and Warm subhumid zone, respectively. Temperatures exceeded the 15YA by 0.5°C, 0.5°C, and 0.4°C in these zones. RADPAR was above the 15YA by 1% and 2% in the first two zones (125 and 126) and at the 15YA in the third zone (127). BIOMSS was below the 15YA by 16%, 11%, and 16% across the three zones.

NDVI-based crop condition development graphs showed similar trends for all three zones, mirroring the national crop development NDVI graph. CALF was below the 5YA by 6% and 24% in zones 125 and 126, but 8% above in zone 127. VCIx values of 0.65 and 0.40 in zones 125 and 126 confirmed unfavorable crop conditions, while 0.73 in zone 127 suggested moderately favorable conditions.

The CPI was 0.98 and 0.83 in the Sub-humid northern highlands and Warm semi-arid zone, indicating below-normal crop production. In contrast, the Warm sub-humid zone had a CPI of 1.15, suggesting average to above-average crop production.

Overall, the three agro-ecological zones of Morocco experienced varying degrees of water deficits, with the Sub-humid northern highlands and Warm semi-arid zone facing more significant challenges due to below-average rainfall and unfavorable crop conditions, while the Warm sub-humid zone showed slightly better resilience with moderately favorable conditions (higher CALF and VCIx ) and potential for average to above-average crop production despite the overall dry conditions.

Figure 3.27 Morocco's crop condition, April-July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands).and (g) Warm semiarid zones) 

(h). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(i) Time series profile of rainfall (j) Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.45 Morocco's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2024

Table 3.46 Morocco's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, April-July 2024