During the current reporting period, Mexico's primary crops included maize, rice, soybeans, and winter wheat. While maize, soybeans, and rice were in the sowing phase, winter wheat was in the harvesting phase.

The agro-climatic conditions during the reporting period indicated that RAIN was 554 mm, which was 9% below the average. The average TEMP was recorded at 24.8°C, 1.3°C above the average. RADPAR was recorded at 1490 MJ/m², reflecting a 1% increase compared to the average. BIOMSS was estimated at 882 gDM/m², representing a 10% decrease below the average. The CALF was reported at 83%, showing a slight increase of 1% compared to average values. The VCIx was recorded at 0.83, and the CPI was calculated at 1.03.

The preceding drought has already had a significant adverse impact on agricultural production in Mexico. During this reporting period, RAIN in April and May remained far below the 15-year average, and May also experienced high TEMP. These conditions exacerbated the drought, affecting 70% of the national territory, including provinces such as Chihuahua, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Puebla, Morelos, Hidalgo, and the major agricultural province of Sinaloa. However, a marked shift occurred in June and July, with June's RAIN exceeding the 15-year maximum, leading to flooding that negatively impacted crop production in the southern regions of Mexico.

Most croplands were adversely affected by severe high temperatures and a lack of RAIN in May, resulting in crop growth being significantly below average. Particularly during May and June, crop growth across all croplands was below average. As RAIN increased later in the monitoring period, crop growth gradually approached average levels; however, in most regions, it remained slightly below the average.

The combination of severe drought followed by excessive rainfall has posed significant challenges for crop production across Mexico. While the increased precipitation mitigated some of the drought's adverse effects, in certain regions, such as the State of Mexico, the excessive RAIN caused flooding, further impeding crop growth. As a result, overall crop conditions remained below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provided more details for the production situation in Mexico.

In the arid and semi-arid region of northern and central Mexico, agro-climatic conditions were characterized by a significant reduction in RAIN, with recorded RAIN at 247 mm, 33% below the average, marking the most substantial decrease among all regions. The average TEMP was 24.1°C, while the RADPAR was 1564 MJ/m². BIOMSS declined by 11%. The CALF was 65%, representing a 5% increase above the 5 YA. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop growth remained below average for most of the monitoring period. The VCIx was 0.81, and the CPI was 1.19.

In the humid tropics region with summer rainfall in southeastern Mexico, the recorded precipitation was 944 mm, 9% above the average. The average TEMP was 27.5°C, which was 1.4°C higher than the average. The RADPAR was 1398 MJ/m². BIOMSS was 1163 gDM/m², showing an 8% decline. The CALF reached 100%. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop growth remained below average throughout the reporting period. This underperformance can be primarily attributed to significantly below-average RAIN during April and May, leading to drought conditions across most of the region. The VCIx was 0.86, and the CPI was 0.96, indicating slightly below-normal crop conditions.

In the sub-humid temperate region with summer rains in central Mexico, the recorded precipitation was 621 mm, which was below the average by 12%. The average TEMP was 22.5°C, representing a 1.8% increase above the average. RADPAR was 1481 MJ/m², reflecting a 2% increase above the average. BIOMSS decreased by 9%. The CALF was at 94%. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop growth was significantly below average levels. The VCIx was 0.81, while the CPI was 1.05.

In the sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains region of southern Mexico, the recorded RAIN was 634 mm, which was 7% below the average. The average TEMP was 24.9°C, reflecting a 1.3% increase above the average. RADPAR was at an average level of 1466 MJ/m². BIOMSS experienced an 8% decrease. The CALF remained stable at 95%, which was within the average range. Analysis of crop development based on NDVI indicated that crop growth was significantly below average levels. The VCIx was 0.84, and the CPI was 0.96.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition,  April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.1 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April- July 2024

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA,  April- July 2024