This reporting period from April to July covers the main crop growing season in Mongolia. Wheat, the main cereal crop, was sown in early May. Only 3% of Mongolia's cropland is irrigated, which means that agro-meteorological conditions have a decisive impact on crop growth. Except for the impact of an extreme winter weather event, called "Dzud" in early April and a certain degree of drought caused by high temperatures in July, the overall growth of crops is good and remains at an average level. According to CropWatch agro-climatic indicators, average TEMP was 12.1°C, above the 15-year average (+1.9°C). RAIN was 316 mm, 12% higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 2% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 10% higher than the 15-year average.

The NDVI departure cluster map shows that 35.9% of the area had vegetation conditions slightly below average during the sowing stage, partly caused by "Dzud" conditions. However, subsequently, Mongolia had above or close to average conditions and the increase was more pronounced in May. Then, due to the influence of high temperatures in July, most areas experienced a downward trend but still remained close to the average level. Especially in Central and Eastern Steppe and northern Hangai Khuvsgul Region, NDVI value were below average. The maximum VCI map indicates that most regions in Mongolia have relatively good vegetation health conditions, but Central and Eastern Steppe and northern Hangai Khuvsgul Region were less favorable, consistent with the situation shown in the NDVI departure cluster map.

The national average VCIx was 0.89, indicating that vegetation conditions is still affected by "Dzud" event and unfavorable agricultural conditions. The CALF was 99%, equal to the 5-year average. The CPI for Mongolia was 0.92, indicating near-normal crop production prospects overall this season.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Mongolia can be divided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Altai (135), Gobi Desert (136), Hangai Khuvsgul Region (137), Selenge-Onon Region (138), and Central and Eastern Steppe (139). Among them, Altai and Gobi Desert have no cultivated land, so we mainly focus on the remaining three regions.

In the Hangai Khuvsgul Region, RAIN was 372 mm, 20% higher than the 15-year average for the same period. TEMP was 9.9°C, 2.1°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 1% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 2% lower than the 15-year average. The VCIx was 0.84, reflecting that the vegetation conditions has fluctuated slightly, due to the impact of the "Dzud" event, and high temperatures. But the crop production prospects are still at a normal level. 

The Selenge-Onon region in north-central Mongolia produces more than half of the wheat. RAIN was 320 mm, 12% higher than the 15-year average for the same period. TEMP was 12.7°C, 1.9°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 2% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 7% higher than the 15-year average. The VCIx was 0.93, and CPI was 0.97, indicating that the overall agricultural situation in this region is normal. 

In the Central and Eastern Steppe, RAIN was 211 mm, 6% lower than the 15-year average for the same period. TEMP was 15.2°C, 1.7°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR was 2% lower than the 15-year average. BIOMSS was 2% lower than the 15-year average. Affected by agroclimatic conditions, the VCIx was 0.81, and the CPI is 0.85. However, due to the relatively small planting area of crops, the impact on the nationwide crops condition is relatively minor.

Overall, the agroclimatic conditions in Mongolia are generally normal. The increase in precipitation and warmer temperatures are beneficial for crop growth.

Figure 3.31 Mongolia’s crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                       (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hangai Khuvsgul Region (left) and Selenge-Onon Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central and Eastern Steppe)

(j) Proportion of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

(k) CPI time series graph for Mongolia

Table 3.54 Mongolia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

Table 3.55 Mongolia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024