This bulletin covers the period from April to July. The winter wheat harvest was concluded in June, while the maize and rice planting commenced in May. Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators show normal crop conditions throughout this timeframe.

Pakistan has a high proportion of irrigated cropland, which accounts for 80% of the total, which reduces the negative impact of droughts on crop production. Recent data indicates a 4% decrease in rainfall compared to the 15-year average. Photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) fell short by 3% in comparison to the 15YA, but air temperatures (TEMP) during this period increased by 0.9℃. The combined effect of these agroclimatic indicators resulted in an above-average biomass (BIOMSS) production by 1%. At the national level, the rainfall remained below average in May and June, together with normal to above-normal mean temperatures recorded in most parts of the country, which may result in slight drought in non-irrigated areas. Poorer crop growth in the areas of Northern highlands and downstream of the rivers can confirm this situations, with the VCIx values falling below 0.5 in those regions. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by 5% compared with the 5YA, which may have a positive effect on the summer crop production.

At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicated below-average conditions for most of this monitoring period. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 63.4% of the cropped areas were below average in late May, while 34.4% were below average in June and July. The cropped area with continuously below average, mainly located in the Northern Highlands, north of Punjab and some regions along the Indus River basin. The NDVI trends reached or even surpassed the 5YA in all regions by the end of July, indicating favorable prospects for crop production. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Pakistan is 1.05, indicating an above average agricultural production situation.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch divides Pakistan into three agroecological regions based on geography and agroclimatic conditions: the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sindh(155)，the Northern Highlands(156) and the Northern Punjab(157).

In the Lower Indus River basin in South Punjab and Sindh, RAIN wasabove average by 75% and TEMP was above by 0.4℃, while RADPAR was below average by 6%. The estimated BIOMSS departure was +9%. The VCIx was at 0.80, which is above normal for this period between the harvest of wheat and the establishment of the summer crops. Prospects for the newly established crops are promising. CALF was rather low (44%), but 9% higher than the five-year average. Overall, the CPI is 1.08, the prospects are better than normal.

RAIN (-11%) and RADPAR (-2%) of Northern Highlands were both below average, while TEMP was above by +1.3℃. The region experienced warmer and drier weather, and the estimated BIOMSS departure was -8%. Wheat conditions were satisfactory, weather was generally favorable for the establishment of maize and crop conditions were above average from July. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 57%, but which is an increase by 2% over the 5YA. Though the CPI is low level of 0.93 in current period, crop conditions are average.

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded more rainfall and higher temperature than usual (RAIN +11%,  TEMP +0.9℃). RADPAR (-2%) was below average. The combination of these factors resulted in below-average estimates of BIOMSS by 8% compared to the recent fifteen-year average. Wheat had average NDVI values during the late growth period, which resulted in average yields. For summer crops, crop conditions in June were below average, but they improved and exceeded the maximum in late July.  CALF was high (77%) with a increase by 5% and  VCIx was 0.82. . CPI (1.07) was higher than average. All in all, conditions for production of summer crops is favorable

Figure 3.5 Pakistan crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                             

(c)  Time series precipitation profile

(d)  Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (f) NDVI profiles

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (left) and  Northern Highland(right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Northern Punjab

(i) National CPI time series

1 Pakistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

2 Pakistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024