The Philippines gradually entered its rainy season starting in late April. During the monitoring period, harvest of the second-season maize and second-season rice was completed before the start of the rainy season. Their harvest was followed by planting of the the main-season maize and main-season rice. Before late May, the Philippines experienced persistently higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Subsequently, the precipitation increased and continued to be above the 15YA, while the temperature gradually decreased and approached the average level. Compared to the 15-year average, the precipitation (RAIN) was slightly lower by about 4%, the average temperature (TEMP) was higher by about 0.6°C, and the radiation (RADPAR) was slightly lower by 1%. The combination of higher temperatures and lower precipitation during the dry season exacerbated soil moisture stress in Philippines, resulting in a 6% decrease in potential biomass (BIOMASS). The lack of soil moisture seems also to have caused a delay in planting of the main season crops, including maize and rice. Before mid-May, the NDVI of crops continued to be lower than the 5YA. Subsequently, it gradually recovered with the increase of precipitation. Clustering results of NDVI departure also show that almost all of the cultivated land in the country experienced a pattern of decrease followed by a recovery of NDVI. However, about 30.7% of these lands (orange and light green) showed a sudden decline at the end of the monitoring period, mainly distributed in the southern Luzon Island, the western Visayas Island, and the eastern Mindanao Island. This sudden decline might have been due to cloud cover in the satellite images or temporary flooding. In addition, the VCIx in the Philippines was only 0.90, along with an almost 100% CALF and a 0.94 CPI index. Considering both agroclimatic and agronomical indicators, the growth condition of crops in the Philippines during this monitoring period is slightly lower than the average level. However, prospects for main season rice and maize are still promising.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands, agro-ecological zone 158), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros, agro-ecological zone 159), and the Lowlands region (northern islands, agro-ecological zone 160). The CALF values for each zone are relatively stable, almost reaching 100%.

In the Forest region, the precipitation (RAIN) is lower by about 9%, with a higher temperature (TEMP) by about 0.7°C, and a lower radiation (RADPAR) by about 2%. Potential biomass (BIOMASS) has also decreased by approximately 5%. The lack of precipitation during the dry season has also resulted in a continuous below-average NDVI in this region before June. The VCIx for this region is only 0.91, with a CPI of 0.93, indicating an overall below average crop growth condition.

For the Hilly region, there was a slightly decline of 4% in precipitation (RAIN), with an increase of 0.5°C in average temperature (TEMP), a decrease of 9% in biomass (BIOMASS) and a normal radiation (RADPAR). The impact of precipitation deficiency on this region is relatively greater compared to other regions, with the largest drop in crop NDVI occurring at the beginning of the monitoring period. The VCIx for this area is only 0.87, with a CPI of 0.91, indicating a lower crop growth condition.

In the Lowlands region, the precipitation (RAIN) is slightly lower by 2%, with a 0.5°C increase in temperature (TEMP), a 4% decrease in biomass (BIOMASS) and a normal radiation (RADPAR). Similarly, crops in this region also experience a same pattern of initial decline followed by recovery in NDVI. The VCIx for this region is 0.90, with a CPI of 0.95, indicating below averge crop conditions.

Figure 3.35 Philippines' crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile (left) and rainfall profile (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Forest region (left) and in the Hilly region (right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lowland region

(i) CPI time series

Table 3.61 Philippines' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

Table 3.62 Philippines' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, April- July 2024