During this monitoriong period, sowing of summer crops was completed in May, whereas harvest of the winter cereals started in July. Rainfall was rather regularly distributed, but lower than the average for the same period in the past 15 years by 31%. Temperatures (TEMP +1.9 °C), and solar radiation (RADPAR +4%) were above the average. The dry and hot weather resulted in a 12% reduction in BIOMSS. Benefiting from abundant precipitation and favorable temperatures, NDVI was above average in April. It subsequently dropped to average and ended below average in July. This was most likely due to the general precipitation deficit. The NDVI departure clustering map shows that large differences in NDVI distance levels occurred mainly in April. Only 6.8% of crops ( marked as "dark green", mainly sporadically distributed in northern and southwestern Poland ) were significantly below average in May, and thereafter the deviation continued to decrease until the margin was positive at the end of July. About 42.8% of the crop ( labeled "light green" and "orange", mainly in the west, partly in the east-central part of the country ) had a decreasing NDVI level (from positive to negative, with increasing negative values) from May onwards, but recovered slightly to slightly below average by the end of July. The rest 50.3% crops (marked "red" and "blue", mainly distributed in east and southwestern of Poland) was significant below the average in late July.

CALF reached 100% and VCIx was 0.86. Crops with VCIx values between 0.5 and 0.8 were widely distributed in east and  southwest of the country. CPI was 0.94.

Overall, crop conditions were below average due to the rainfall deficit.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below. They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (162, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (163, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Compared to the average for the same period of the last 15 years, the Northern oats and potatoes areas had 17% lower RAIN, 1.9 °C higher TEMP, and averaged RADPAR. The rainfall deficit caused 5% lower BIOMSS. CALF in the region was 100% and VCIx was 0.89. Crop growth in the region was below average from June to July. CPI was 0.96. Crop production is expected to be slightly below average.

Rainfall in the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area was 22% below the average of the last 15 years, TEMP was 1.9 °C higher, while RADPAR was above average by 1%, and BIOMSS was 7% lower due to the precipitation deficit. CALF was close to 100% and VCIx was 0.88. NDVI in this subregion was significantly lower than the average of the same period from late June to July. CPI was 0.96. Crop conditions were slightly below average.

Compared to the 15-year average, in the Central rye and potatoes area, RAIN was lower by 35%, TEMP was 1.9°C higher, RADPAR was 4% higher and BIOMSS was 14% lower. CALF in this region reached 100%, and VCIx was 0.86. NDVI was below the average of the last five years in June and July. CPI was 0.94. All in all, the crop conditions were unfavorable. 

In the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, a rainfall deficit (-34%) was observed. TEMP was also 1.7°C higher than the 15YA. Combined with a 7% higher RADPAR, this led to a 13% lower BIOMSS. CALF in this zone was 100% and VCIx was 0.86. In contrast to the other three subregions, NDVI in this zone was significantly below average in July. CPI was 0.90. Crop conditions were rather unfavorable.

Figure 3.5 Poland’s crop condition, April - July 2024

图3.5 2024年4月-7月波兰作物长势

(a) Phenology of major crops

(a) 主要作物物候历

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(b) 基于NDVI的作物生长过程线

(c) Maximum VCI

(c)  最佳植被状况指数

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                 (e) NDVI departure profiles

(d)NDVI距平空间聚类图（与5年平均相比）                          (e) NDVI距平聚类过程线

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(f) 基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线（北部燕麦马铃薯产区（左）和中北部小麦甘蔗产区（右）)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(g) 基于 NDVI 的作物生长过程线（中部黑麦马铃薯产区（左）和南部小麦甘蔗产区（右）)

(h) Rainfall profiles 

(h) 降水时间序列过程线 

(i) Temperature profiles

(i)温度时间序列过程线

(j) CPI time series graph

(j)作物生产形势指数时间序列图

Table 3.1 Poland’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

表3.1 波兰农业生态分区2024年4月-7月与过去15年（15YA）同期农业气象指标

Table 3.2 Poland’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024

表3.2 波兰农业生态分区2024年4月-7月与近5年（5YA）同期农情指标