The period from April to July is the main growth period for crops in Russia. In July, winter crop harvest started in many regions, while spring crops reached their peak development. In Russia, a mere 2.7% of cropland is irrigated. Hence, precipitation has a big impact on crop production. 

In terms of agro-climatic indicators, the national average for RAIN was 321 mm, 3% above the 15YA. Regional variations were significant, with the Northern Caucasus experiencing a substantial deficit (-61%), while the Ural and Western Volga regions saw a marked increase (+56%). The average TEMP was 14.3°C, 1.0°C above the 15YA, with the Northern Caucasus showing the most pronounced warming (+2.1°C). RADPAR was 2% below the 15YA, with minimal regional variations ranging from -8% to +5%. BIOMSS was 3% above the 15YA, but it showed considerable regional differences: a significant decrease in the Northern Caucasus (-26%) contrasted with a substantial increase in the Ural and Western Volga regions (+21%).

Agronomic indicators showed that the national average CALF was 98%, on par with the 5YA. Most regions maintained 100% or near 100% CALF, with only the Northern Caucasus slightly lower at 93%. The national average VCIx was 0.91, indicating generally good vegetation conditions. Most regions had VCIx values above 0.8, with the Northern Caucasus being an exception at 0.75.

The NDVI curve revealed that NDVI values were initially at par with the 5YA but declined from mid-May. The notable negative deviation in mid-June can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images. It subsequently fluctuated around last year's trend.  These fluctuations coincided with extreme rainfall and high temperatures, particularly affecting the Northern Caucasus (174) and Southern Caucasus (176) regions. In contrast, the Ural to Volga-Vyatka region (178) and Western Siberia (179) showed gradual improvement in crop conditions during June and July.

The national average CPI was 1.00, indicating average crop production conditions. Regional variations were significant, ranging from 0.85 in the Northern Caucasus to 1.19 in the Ural and Western Volga regions.

Spatial analysis of VCIx showed generally favorable conditions across most agricultural regions, particularly in central and western Russia. The Central region (169) and Central Black Soil area (170) displayed high VCIx values (0.8-1.0), indicating excellent crop conditions. The Northern Caucasus (174) and Southern Caucasus (176) showed more spatial variability, with some areas having lower VCIx values (0.5-0.8). The Middle Volga region (173) had generally high VCIx values, except for its southeastern parts. The Ural and Western Volga region (178) and Western Siberia (179) exhibited predominantly high VCIx values, benefiting from adequate rainfall and suitable temperatures.

Overall, the April-July 2024 period in Russia was characterized by stable agro-climatic conditions, though extreme rainfall and high temperatures in mid-June and late July may have adversely affected crop growth in some areas. Most regions experienced favorable agricultural production conditions, particularly in central, western, and Siberian areas. The Northern Caucasus faced challenges due to significantly reduced precipitation. The Ural and Western Volga regions showed the most favorable conditions, with increased rainfall and biomass potentially leading to good production.

Regional Analysis

Russia can be divided into thirteen agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. This report focuses on nine main agricultural regions.

Central Russia (169)

Central Russia is one of the country's major agricultural regions, growing large amounts of winter wheat and other cereal crops. The RAIN was 341 mm, 4% higher than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 14.1°C, 1.3°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 1% lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 4% higher than the 15YA, and CALF was on par with the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.96, and the CPI was 0.99. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows predominantly high values (0.8-1.0) in this region, indicating very good vegetation conditions. Overall, sufficient rainfall and higher temperatures provided favorable conditions for crop growth, suggesting a good harvest for this region.

Central Black Soils Area (170)

The Central Black Soils Area, known for its fertile black soils and favorable climatic conditions, is one of Russia's most important agricultural regions. The RAIN was 226 mm, 27% lower than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 16.2°C, 1.5°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was on par with the 15YA. BIOMSS was 13% lower than the 15YA, and CALF was equal to the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.88, and the CPI was 0.92. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows generally high values (0.8-1.0), confirming good crop growth conditions. This suggests that the deep soils were able to buffer the rainfall deficit. Nevertheless, the drier than usual conditions may cause below average wheat yields.

Eastern Siberia (171)

Eastern Siberia has a relatively small cultivated area, with agriculture playing a minor role in the regional economy. The RAIN was 378 mm, 14% lower than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 11.5°C, 0.1°C below the 15YA. RADPAR was 7% lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 4% lower than the 15YA, and CALF was equal to the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.93, and the CPI was 0.96. The VCIx spatial distribution map indicates generally high values, suggesting good vegetation conditions despite the limited cultivated area. Although precipitation and RADPAR were low, moderate temperatures seem to have favored crop growth.

Middle Siberia (172)

Agricultural production in Middle Siberia is limited by climatic conditions, with a small cultivated area. The RAIN was 282 mm, on par with the 15YA, while the TEMP was 12.0°C, 1.6°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was equal to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 1% higher than the 15YA, and CALF was 1% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.84, and the CPI was 0.93. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows relatively low values, with most areas appearing light green or yellow, indicating poor vegetation conditions. Given this region's low share in Russian agriculture, its impact is limited.

Middle Volga (173)

The Middle Volga region is an important agricultural area in Russia, especially for summer crop production. The RAIN was 325 mm, 9% higher than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 14.4°C, 0.8°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 3% lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 5% higher than the 15YA, and CALF was 2% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.91, and the CPI was 1.00. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows generally high values, with most areas appearing dark green, indicating good vegetation conditions. However, some areas in the southeast show lower VCIx values. Adequate rainfall and suitable temperatures created favorable conditions for crop growth, suggesting a potentially high-yielding year for this region.

Northern Caucasus (174)

The Northern Caucasus region has a significant agricultural production. It mainly grows winter wheat and other cereal crops. The RAIN was 119 mm, 61% lower than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 19.7°C, 2.1°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 5% higher than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 26% lower than the 15YA, and CALF was 3% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.75, and the CPI was 0.85. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows considerable spatial variation, with some areas having good vegetation conditions (dark green) while others show poor conditions (yellow or light green), with VCIx values ranging from 0.5 to 0.8. Severe precipitation deficit and high temperatures likely adversely affected crops, and this region may face a risk of reduced yields.

South Caucasus (176)

The South Caucasus region has relatively mild climatic conditions, with agricultural production playing an important role in the regional economy. The RAIN was 442 mm, 12% lower than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 16.0°C, 0.9°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 3% lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 13% lower than the 15YA, and CALF was equal to the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.84, and the CPI was 0.95. The VCIx spatial distribution map, similar to the Northern Caucasus, shows considerable spatial variation in vegetation conditions.  Crop growth conditions were unfavorable.

Ural and Western Volga region (178)

The Ural and Western Volga region is one of Russia's important agricultural areas, mainly growing spring wheat and other summer crops. The RAIN was 425 mm, 56% higher than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 12.4°C, 0.2°C below the 15YA. RADPAR was 8% lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 21% higher than the 15YA, and CALF was 1% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 1.01, and the CPI was 1.19. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows predominantly high values appearing dark green, indicating very favorable vegetation conditions. Abundant rainfall and suitable temperatures provided highly favorable conditions for crop growth, suggesting above average production for this region.

Western Siberia (179)

Agricultural production in Western Siberia is limited by climatic conditions, with a small cultivated area. The RAIN was 407 mm, 34% higher than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 13.3°C, 0.8°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 4% lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 18% higher than the 15YA, and CALF was 1% higher than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.98, and the CPI was 1.17. The VCIx spatial distribution map shows generally high values, with most areas appearing dark green, especially in the southern parts. Adequate rainfall and suitable temperatures promoted good crop growth.

Figure 3.42 Russia’s crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)            Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index

(l) Temperature index

(m) CPI Time Series graph

Table 3.75 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April 2024 - July 2024

Table 3.76 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April 2024 - July 2024