In Ukraine, maize started to sow in May while the harvesting of winter wheat began in July in this monitoring period (April to July, 2024).

Ukraine experienced a hot and dry summer this year. Agroclimatic indexes showed that the whole country was highly deficient in rainfall (169mm, -45%), the seasonal average temperature (18℃) was 2℃ higher than 15YA, only the sunshine was stable (1286 MJ/m2, +4%). Based on above drought and hot climatic conditions, CropWatch projected that the potential biomass was 20% lower than 15YA. Agronomic indicators showed a good CALF (0.99) indicating that nearly all arable land was cropped, but a moderate VCIx (0.82) and low Crop Production Index (CPI, 0.9) indicated an below average or unfavorable crop production situation.

Remote sensing based crop condition also confirmed the unfavorable situation for crop development. National NDVI was consistently blow 5YA since middle May. According to the map of spatial NDVI patterns, NDVI in 78.2% cropped was below 5YA in the end of July.  There were 11.7% area concentrated in southern and eastern Ukraine (the frontline of Ukraine-Russia conflict) showed 0.3 NDVI units reduction. Lower VCIx (0.5 to 0.8, some even below 0.5) was also observed in southern eastern Ukraine including Kherson, Odessa, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia Oblasts. Considering these regions are the major maize areas, the prospects for maize production are unfavorable.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

All four AEZs shared generally similar patterns in agroclimatic and agronomic conditions due to national wide drought. AEZs received less rainfall from 35% (Northern wheat area) to 59% (Southern wheat and maize area), and had higher temperature varying from 1.7℃ (Northern wheat area) to 2.4℃(Southern wheat and maize area) as compared to 15YA; radiation was near normal (+3% to +5%). Agroclimatic indicators based projected biomass was 15%(Eastern Carpathian hills) to 25%(Southern wheat and maize area) lower than 15YA. Agronomic indicators showed all arable land cropped (CALF of 1) and good VCIx (0.87 to 0.92, except Southern wheat and maize area (CALF of 0.99 and VCIx of 0.75), but lower CPI varying from 0.83(Southern wheat and maize area) to 1(Eastern Carpathian hills) indicative of overall just normal or below average conditions.

Because of rainfall deficiency, NDVI based crop development curves were generally below 5YA since May (Central wheat area, Southern wheat and maize area) or June (Northern wheat area, Eastern Carpathian hills), and only Eastern Carpathian hills recovered to 5YA in the end of this season. Based on above information, crop production was not optimistic, especially for maize in Southern wheat and maize area.

Figure 3.46 Ukraine's crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

(l) Time series CPI profile

Table 3.83 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  April - July 2024

Table 3.84 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024