This monitoring period from April to July 2024 covers the reproductive growth period and harvest of winter wheat in Uzbekistan. Sowing of maize started in April. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the rainfall (RAIN) was above average (+12%), while temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) were below average (-0.5°C and -5%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was significantly above the 15YA in the middle of April and the beginning of May. The temperature in April and June was close to the 15YA, but it was slightly below the 15YA in May and significantly below the 15YA at the beginning and middle of July. At the end of July, the temperature turned to be much higher than the 15YA. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) slightly decreased by 3% compared to the 15YA. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that the crop conditions were near average for most of the growing period.

The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.81. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 72%, which was same as its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 26.4% of arable land (blue) showed unfavorable conditions in this monitoring period, mainly in the west of Aral Sea cotton zone. (2) 28.4% of arable land (light green), mainly in the west and central area of the Eastern hilly cereals, had better crop conditions than average in this monitoring period. (3) 25.5% of arable land (orange) had unfavorable conditions in April and early May, while subsequently, crop conditions were better than the 5YA. (4) 9.1% of arable land (dark green) had much better crop conditions than average during April to June, but turned to unfavorable conditions in July. (5) On the contrary, 10.6% of arable land (red) had unfavorable conditions during April to June, but turned to average or better condition in July. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.96, which was higher than CPI last year (0.78), but lower than the five-year average CPI (1.04). Prospects for crop production in Uzbekistan are normal.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212). It is noteworthy that the crop condition in the central region with sparse crops had little impact on the crop production of Uzbekistan since the crop fields are sparse in the region.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, TEMP and RADPAR were below average (-0.5°C and -5%), while RAIN was above average (+13%). The CALF was 76%. It had increased by 2% compared to the 5YA and the VCIx index was 0.80. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph showed a similar pattern as the national average state, which indicated that the crop conditions were close to the 5YA in this monitoring period. The BIOMSS slightly decreased by 2%. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.96. The prospects for crop production in this region are estimated to be slightly favorable.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN and RADPAR were below average (-44% and -4%), while TEMP was above average (+0.3°C). These factors resulted in a decrease in BIOMSS (-7%). The CALF was 56%, which decreased by 4% compared to the 5YA. The maximum VCI index was 0.83 and the crop production index (CPI) was 0.96.The NDVI-based crop condition development graph showed that the crop conditions were slightly below the 5YA during April to early May, but turned to be better than the 5-year maximum in late May and close to average in June and July. The prospects for crop production in this region are normal. 

Figure 3.5 Uzbekistan’s crop condition,  April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                                 (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles      

(g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern hilly cereals region (left) and Aral Sea cotton region (right))

(i) CPI time series graph

Table 3.1 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA,  April - July 2024

Table 3.2 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA,  April - July 2024