From April to July, soybeans and maize are the main crops  produced. In this monitoringrperiod, maize harvesting began in May in the east, while in the west, it started a month later. Soybean harvesting began in April,  while wheat planting started in May.

At the national level, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that South Africa experienced drier and hotter weather than usual, during this monitoring period, with the RAIN below average (-30%), TEMP higher (+0.7°C), and RADPAR (+2%) slightly above the average. All these indicators resulted in lower BIOMSS (-20%). The VCIx was 0.73, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 17% compared to the 5-year average level. The CPI was 0.66, indicating poor agricultural production conditions.

The NDVI development graph shows that crop conditions during this monitoring period were below the 5-year average. This was mainly due to the persistent hot and dry weather. Since the second half of last year, the El Niño event has caused a severe drought in South Africa, significantly disrupting its food production. The drought has primarily affected cereal and oilseed crops.

As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, it shows that until mid-May, crop conditions in approximately 33.6% of South Africa's areas were above average. However, afterward, only about 5.4% of the areas had crop conditions above average, primarily concentrated in the southern parts of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape provinces. In the remaining 66.4% of the areas, crop conditions were close to or below average throughout the monitoring period, mainly concentrated in the North West, Free State, the western part of the Western Cape, and the southeastern coastal areas. Overall, due to insufficient rainfall, crop conditions in South Africa were generally below average.

Regional analysis

In the Arid and desert zones (221), compared to the 15-year average, the RAIN was significantly above average (+17%), TEMP was higher (+0.7°C), and RADPAR (0%) was at the average level. Despite the increased rainfall, hotter weather  kept the BIOMASS  at the average level (0%). The CALF was 3% higher, and the VCIx was 0.83. The CPI was 0.79, indicating a low level. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop conditions were generally below average before early June. However, during the subsequent monitoring period, crop conditions reached the 5-year average, mainly due to the increased rainfall in early June and early July. Overall, crop conditions were average.

 In the Humid Cape Fold mountains (222), compared to the 15-year average, the TEMP (+1.0°C) and RADPAR (+1%) were above average, while the RAIN (-28%) was significantly below average. These conditions resulted in a lower BIOMASS (-16%). The CALF was 99%, and the VCIx was 0.88. The CPI was 0.95, indicating average crop production conditions. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average in April, declined in May and June due to decreased rainfall, and rebounded in July, with overall average crop conditions.

 In the Mediterranean zone (223), compared to the 15-year average, the TEMP (-0.4°C) and RADPAR (-2%) were below average, while the RAIN was above average (+29%). It is noteworthy that this region was in its rainy season during this monitoring period. Despite sufficient rainfall, the reduced temperature and light conditions slightly lowered the BIOMASS(-1%). The CALF slightly increased (88%, +3%) compared to the 5-year average, with a VCIx of 0.90. The CPI was 1.06, indicating favorable production conditions. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop condition was close to the 5-year average in April. They dropped shartly in May, but rebounded to close to average conditions by late July.

 In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (224), compared to the 15-year average, the RAIN (30 mm, -54%) was significantly below average, while the TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.8°C, +2%). Due to insufficient rainfall, the BIOMASS was 20% below average. The CALF was significantly lower (68%, -23%) compared to the 5-year average, indicating that many fields were left uncultivated this season. The VCIx was 0.68 and the CPI was 0.54, indicating poor crop production conditions. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, crop conditions were below the 5-year average until early June, then approached the average level. Overall, crop conditions were poor.

Figure 3.5 South Africa's crop condition, April - July 2024

(a) Phenology of the main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall index (e) Temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA        (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Arid and desert zones (left) and Humid Cape Fold mountains (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (left)  and Mediterranean zone (right)

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.1 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2024

Table 3.2 South Africa's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, April - July 2024