This report covers the end of the main growing season with havesting of rainfed field crops being the main activity.  Zambia has been affected by a dry spell, which started at the peak of the rainy season during the last monitoring period. The cause of the dry spell was El Niño, exacerbated by global warming. The most affected regions were the Southern, Western, Central, and Eastern provinces. For this period, the CropWatch agronomic indicators at the national scale showed a decrease in rainfall (RAIN -15%) while the temperature increased (TEMP = +1.2ºC). Similarly, there was an increase in radiation (RADPAR = +3%), biomass production decreased (BIOMSS = -7%), while  CALF was 92% with the overall VCIx at 0.72. Government statistics reported that cereal production fell  by 42% compared to the previous five-year average, causing a large supply shortfall in the main agriculture production belts. The government therefore declared a National Disaster and Emergency.

Regional Analysis:

Based on regional analysis, a reduction in rainfall was obserevd in the zones 225 Luangwa-Zambezi Valley (-23%), 227 Central Eastern and Southern plateau (-20%), Northern high rainfall region (-13%) and an increase in Western Semi-arid plain (+23%). An increase in solar radiation (+2% to +5%) was observed in all the zones except  for the Western Semi-arid plain (-2%), however there was an increase in potential biomass production in all the zones (+1% to +12%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was above 90% in the three zones exept Luangwa-Zambezi rift valley (83%). The lack of moisture heavily affected biomass production in the main agriculture production zones (Central Eastern and Southern plateau). Apart from the Northern high rainfall zone, CPI was below 1.0:  Western Semi-arid plain (0.66), Luangwa Zambezi rift valley (0.70), and the Central Eastern and Southern plateau (0.79). 

Table A: Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April 2024 – July 2024

Table B: Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April 2024 – July 2024

Figure A: CPI time series graph

Figure B: Phenology of major crops

Figure C: Time series rainfall profile

Figure D: Time series temperature profile

Figure E: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure F: Maximum VCI

Figure G: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles