After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 then presents China's crop prospects (section 4.2), describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (section 4.3). Section 4.4 describes trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

This reporing period covers the harvest of early rice and winter wheat. Summer crops, such as semi-late rice, maize, and soybeans reached the flowering stages by the end of July. The planting of late rice was finished in July. The agro-climatic conditions were quite favorable, with above average rainfall (+12%) and temperature (+1.0°C), while RADPAR (-3%) was slightly below average. On the combined effects of agroclimatic indicators, BIOMSS was 3% greater than the 15YA. National crop area land fraction (CALF), valued at 0.97, was average, while the national maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.90. National Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.99, higher than last year (0.95) and close to the recent five-year average (1.00), indicating an overall favorable crop condition.

According to the time series rainfall profile, above-average rainfall was observed nationwide in entire April, late May, middle and late June, and late July. All of the main agricultural regions of China recorded average to above-average rainfall, with the largest positive departure occurring in Huanghuaihai (+33%).  However, that region experienced a severe rainfall deficit until the end of June. It was offset by July's rainfall, which was about double of the 15YA. At the country level, rainfall anomalies fluctuated largely over time and space. As can be seen from the spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, 73.4% of the cropped areas (marked in dark green) recorded near-average precipitation. 11.3% of the cropped areas (marked in light green) generally experienced extreme rainfall (with positive departure more than +135 mm/dekad) from early to middle July, mainly distributed in some parts of Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, and Anhui. The remaining 15.4% of the cropped areas (marked in blue), received the most variable rainfall among the three clustered regions. It was marked by extreme rainfall in late July (with positive departures of more than +180 mm/dekad), mainly located in Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi, Taiwan, and Guangxi. As influenced by the super typhoon Gaemi, from July 24 to 28, some areas in Taiwan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guangdong experienced accumulated rainfall of 300 to 600 millimeters, with localized areas in Fujian, Zhejiang, and Hunan receiving 700 to 875 millimeters. Meanwhile, the central and eastern parts of Liaoning and eastern Jilin also saw continuous heavy rainfall, with accumulated precipitation ranging from 100 to 300 millimeters. In Liaoning's Shenyang and Anshan, and Jilin's Tonghua, the rainfall totaled between 400 and 614 millimeters. Persistent heavy rainfall has led to flooded cropland and crop lodging.

In terms of temperature conditions, all of the main agricultural regions in China recorded average to above-average temperatures, with the largest positive departure occurring in the Loess region and Inner Mongolia (+1.7°C). Temperatures fluctuated during the monitoring period as follows: Temperature departure patterns in 54% of the cultivated land (marked in blue) and 30.5% of the cultivated land (marked in dark green) are relatively similar, both generally showing a trend towards higher temperatures. Temperature changes in 15.5% of the cultivated land (marked in light green) are the most extreme, with temperature deviations exceeding 5°C above average in mid-April and dropping by more than 2.5°C below average in late May, mainly located in parts of Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, as well as the eastern regions of Inner Mongolia. The cold weather also led to a lack of pre-existing temperature accumulation in North East China, which retarded crop growth and development.

All of the agricultral regions had negative RADPAR anomalies, whereas the largest negative departure was recorded for Lower Yangtze region (-5%). As for BIOMSS, the situation varied among the main producing regions, with departures between -6% (Huanghuaihai) and +3% (North East China). With regard to VHI, low values (below 35%) were mainly distributed in Shandong, eastern part of Henan, and northern part of Anhui and Jiangsu. Water deficit mainly occurs during the sowing period of fall grain crops, which has a certain impact on the sowing of fall grain crops as indicated by the time series rainfall in Huanghuaihai. But still CALF was average in all of the main agricultural regions as compared to the 5YA. The VCIx values were all higher than 0.8 in all the main producing regions of China, with values between 0.84 (Loess region) and 0.93 (North East China). CPI values are all close to normal levels.

Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, April to July 2024, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1 China crop calendar

Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, April-July 2024

Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, April-July 2024

Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, April-July 2024

Figure 4.5 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, April-July 2024

Figure 4.6 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, April-July 2024

Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, April-July 2024

Figure 4.8 China time series of Crop Production Index (CPI), January - April 2024

Figure 4.9 China time series of rainfall, January - April 2024