Several sources, including multi-source remote sensing data from ESA's Sentinel-1 and 2 satellites and the US Landsat 8 and 9 satellites, 10-meter resolution cropland data for the entire country, together with support from over 130,000 ground survey data points across more than 500 counties nationwide, and machine learning and  Big Data Earth monitoring methods were applied to estimate the 2024 planted areas and to evaluate crop growth of major grain and oil crops across China. In addition, agricultural meteorological information, and crop yield monitoring models were employed to asses the 2024 national grain production.

(1) Annual grain harvest is expected to increase by 2 million tons or 0.3% compared to last year

As shown in Table 4.2, total grain production in 2024 is forecast at 654.82 million tons, including the summer crops (including maize, middle-season rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybeans, miscellaneous grains, and tuber crops) at a total of about 482.47 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.56 million tons (0.1%) compared to 2023. Production of winter cereals, on the other hand, increased, while the production of summer crops slightly decreases.

During the summer crop growing period, the Northeast region experienced continuous heavy rainfall, with local flooding disasters. Persistent overcast and rainy weather reduced solar radiation and thus the rate of photosynthesis, adversely affecting the growth and yield of summer grain crops in parts of the Liaohe Plain and Sanjiang Plain. As a result, the national summer grain production situation is slightly below last year's levels. Typhoon "Gemei" caused flooding in some coastal areas of the Southeast and along rivers and lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, but its impact on regional summer grain production was limited.

The total winter grain production in 2024 reached 144.97 million tons, an increase of 2.56 million tons or 1.8% year-on-year. The main producing areas experienced generally good agricultural meteorological conditions, with average yields increasing by 1.0% and planting areas increasing by 0.7% year-on-year. The Huanghuaihai region and Xinjiang saw the most significant increases in winter grain planting areas.

Table 4.2. 2024 Grain Production Forecast and Year-on-Year Changes in Major Producing Provinces

(2) Maize planting area decreased by 1.01 million hectares, production expected to decrease by 4.32 million tons

The total maize production in 2024 is predicted to be 228.44 million tons, a decrease of 4.32 million tons or 1.9% year-on-year. Remote sensing monitoring shows that China's maize planting area in 2024 is 41.08 million hectares, a decrease of 1.01 million hectares or 2.4% year-on-year. Heilongjiang's maize planting area decreased by 0.55 million hectares, close to the 2022 planting area. Jilin and Inner Mongolia's maize planting areas decreased by 0.08 million hectares and 0.17 million hectares respectively. Shandong's maize planting area increased by 0.15 million hectares year-on-year.

During the maize growing period, several major producing areas experienced adverse agricultural meteorological conditions such as high temperatures, drought, extreme precipitation, and localized flooding. However, the construction and improvement of infrastructure to prevent and mitigate the effects of extreme precipitation and flooding proved to be effective. The national average maize yield is expected to be 5,560.5 kg/ha, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year. In mid-to-late June, the Huanghuaihai region experienced persistent high temperatures and low rainfall, delaying maize planting. The impact of drought during the planting period was effectively mitigated through irrigation, and later agricultural meteorological conditions were generally normal, with yields returning to normal levels. From late July to mid-August, the Northeast region experienced extreme heavy rainfall, causing flooding in Liaoning, resulting in a 1.0% decrease in maize yield across the province. Shanxi experienced the largest decrease in maize yield among provinces, mainly due to persistent drought, leading to a 2.5% decrease in maize yield year-on-year.

(3) Rice average yield increased by 1.0%, production expected to increase by 1.86 million tons

The total national rice production is expected to reach 197.67 million tons, an increase of 1.86 million tons or 0.9% year-on-year. Early rice production is 27.39 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.005 million tons year-on-year. Middle-season/single-season rice production is expected to be 136.11 million tons, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year. Late rice production is expected to be 34.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% year-on-year.

The early rice planting area increased by 5,333 hectares or 0.1% year-on-year, while the average yield decreased slightly by 0.1%. From mid-to-late June to the early rice maturity period, strong rainfall in major early rice-producing areas such as Guangdong, Hunan, and Jiangxi caused localized flooding, damaging early rice yields and affecting normal harvesting, resulting in a slight decrease in early rice yield year-on-year.

From mid-July to mid-August, the northern single-season rice-producing areas experienced continuous heavy rainfall, which was unfavorable for rice pollination and yield formation. However, larger planting areas led to production increases of 2.4% and 0.4% in Heilongjiang and Jilin, respectively. Liaoning's rice-producing areas experienced flooding, resulting in a 3.0% decrease in rice production year-on-year. The Yangtze River Basin's major rice-producing areas also experienced heavy rainfall, causing flooding in some areas and leading to slight decreases in rice production in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei provinces. Anhui, Henan, Shaanxi, and Ningxia experienced favorable agricultural meteorological conditions and increased rice planting areas, resulting in production increases of 3.9%, 3.0%, 2.5%, and 4.3%, respectively.

(4) Soybean planting area increased by 0.96 million hectares year-on-year, production expected to increase by 1.97 million tons

The total national soybean production in 2024 is expected to reach a record 19.14 million tons, an increase of 1.97 million tons or 11.4% year-on-year. The national soybean planting area is 10.14 million hectares, an increase of 0.96 million hectares or 10.3% compared to 2023, the largest planting area since the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan. The national average soybean yield is expected to be 1,878 kg/ha, an increase of 1.0% year-on-year.

The increase in soybean planting area in 2024 is mainly related to the annual rotation of maize and soybeans in the northwestern part of Heilongjiang, a major soybean-producing area, and the increase in soybean planting subsidies. Heilongjiang's soybean planting area reached 5.23 million hectares, an increase of 0.59 million hectares or 12.7% year-on-year. The significant increase in planting area led to a production increase of 0.85 million tons year-on-year, reaching 7.17 million tons. Inner Mongolia's soybean planting area further increased to 1.59 million hectares, an increase of 0.071 million hectares or 4.7% year-on-year. Combined with a slight increase in yield, the autonomous region's soybean production increased by 4.6% year-on-year. Soybean production in Anhui, Henan, Hebei, and Jilin provinces increased by 5.7%, 1.8%, 1.0%, and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively.

(5) Wheat planting area slightly increased, yield improvement led to a national wheat production increase of 4.86 million tons

The total national wheat production in 2024 is 137.16 million tons, an increase of 2.43 million tons or 1.8% year-on-year. Winter wheat production reached 131.30 million tons, an increase of 2.34 million tons year-on-year, while spring wheat production was 5.86 million tons, an increase of 0.095 million tons.

The national wheat planting area reached 25.09 million hectares, an increase of 58,667 hectares or 0.2% compared to 2023. Winter wheat planting area was 23.77 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares year-on-year, while spring wheat planting area was 1.32 million hectares, a slight decrease of 1,333 hectares.

Agricultural meteorological conditions in major wheat-producing areas were generally favorable, with a lower incidence of agricultural disasters. The national average wheat yield was 5,466 kg/ha, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year. The average yield for winter wheat was 5,523 kg/ha, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, while the average yield for spring wheat was 4,440 kg/ha, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year.

Table 4.3. 2024 China Maize, Rice, Wheat and Soybean Production (million tons), Increase/Decrease (million tons) and Change Rate (%)