5.1 CropWatch food production estimates

Methodological introduction

CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models, CropWatch global agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, and meteorological data from over 20,000 meteorological weather stations around the world. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 47 major producing and exporting countries are estimated and forecast for 2024 (January to mid-August). The is assessments for the estimates included remote sensing monitoring and verification of yield for the above indicated major staple crops that were either in their growing period or close to harvest.

Global Crop Production Index

Figure 5.1 Global CPI Time Series Graph for the Third Quarter

The global CPI for the third quarter of 2024 (April-July) is 0.97, slightly up on the past two years, indicating some improvement in global agricultural production conditions but below normal level. This is mainly due to unfavorable weather conditions in some major agricultural areas, including insufficient rainfall in parts of South America, drought in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, and generally above-average temperatures globally. Nevertheless, the good performance in regions like North America, Western Europe and Central Asia has to some extent offset the adverse effects.

Production estimates

In 2024, the adverse impact of extreme events on the production of major grain and oil crops globally was less severe than in the same period of 2023. The global production of major grain and oil crops is expected to reach 2.878 billion tonnes, an increase of 3.66 million tonnes compared to the previous year, representing a growth of approximately 0.1%. Global maize production in 2024 is estimated at 1.063 billion tonnes, a decrease of 6.81 million tonnes or 0.6% compared to the previous year. Global rice production, at 754 million tonnes, has shown a slight increase of about 0.57 million tonnes (plus 0.1%). Global wheat production, estimated at 740 million tonnes, is 7.51 million tonnes or 1.0% up on last year. Similarly, soybean production is estimated at 321 million tonnes, an increase of 2.38 million tonnes or 0.7%.

From April to mid-August 2024, the overall agroclimatic conditions in the major wheat-producing countries of the Northern Hemisphere were generally normal, favoring overall wheat production. Major wheat producing countries such as China, India, and the United States all saw an increase in production compared to the previous year. Similarly, rice production in South and Southeast Asia, was relatively stable resulting in average overall production. So far, in 2024, extreme events have had less adverse impact on major grain and oil crop production globally compared to the same period in 2023. The total production of major grain and oil crops is expected to reach 2.878 billion tonnes, an increase of 3.66 million tonnes or about 0.1% on last year. However, severe drought in Southern Africa and flooding disasters in South America and Asia have led to reduced grain production in related countries or regions.

Maize

The United States and China, the world's largest maize producers, both saw a decrease in maize production, leading to a slight global decline. However, global maize supply remains generally stable, with relatively low levels of maize prices. In the Southern Hemisphere, significant disparities exist among the major maize-producing countries. In Argentina, both maize area and average yield increased in 2024, rebounding maize production to 55.58 million tonnes, an increase of 11.9%. In Brazil, the first maize crop was affected by drought, while the second crop yield was higher than last year, resulting in an estimated total national maize production of 100.74 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.1%. On the other hand, southern Africa, Influenced by El Niño, has experienced severe drought, with countries such as South Africa and Zambia seeing significant decreases in maize yields, leading to production decline of about 12.6% and 7.7% respectively. The region is now facing serious food shortages.

The United States, as the world's largest maize producer, saw a slight 1% decrease in maize planting area. Due to persistent rainy weather in the main producing areas, the maize yield decreased by 1.4% compared to the previous year. Maize production is expected to reach 367.45 million tonnes, a decrease of 8.93 million tonnes or 2.4%. China's maize planted area decreased, with an expected production of 228.44 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.32 million tonnes or 1.9%. Most maize-producing countries in Europe experienced generally favorable agroclimatic conditions, with Russia, France, and Germany seeing increased production. However, countries in Eastern Europe such as Romania and Hungary were affected by rainfall deficits, leading to decreased maize yields and production reductions of 3.0% and 1.8% respectively. In Ukraine, both maize planting area and yield decreased, resulting in a production drop of about 13.2% to 22.61 million tonnes. In the Horn of Africa, countries like Ethiopia and Kenya experienced good agroclimatic conditions for maize, with production increases of 4.8% and 7.9% respectively. Mexico saw increases in both maize planting area and yield, leading to a production increase of 14.7%, the highest among major producing countries.

Rice

Most rice-producing countries saw slight increases in rice production, with global rice production increasing by 0.57 million tonnes or about 0.1%. Countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam experienced rainfall deficits, leading to slight decreases in rice production. China, India, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan saw slight increases in rice yields, resulting in varying degrees of production increase. Iran experienced increases in both rice planting area and yield, leading to a significant production increase of 20.5%. Among countries in the Southern Hemisphere, Angola, Argentina, and Brazil had favorable agroclimatic conditions in their rice-producing regions, with rice yield increases leading to production increases of 4.8%, 22.6%, and 2.4% respectively.

Wheat

Global wheat production in 2024 is generally favorable, but significant variations were observed among major producing countries. Most wheat-producing countries in Asia experienced good agricultural meteorological conditions, except for Afghanistan, where drought led to a 6.7% decrease in wheat production. All other Asian countries saw increases in wheat production with China and India seeing increases of 1.8% and 2.6% respectively. Central Asian countries experienced increases in both wheat planting area and yield, with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan seeing production increases of 45.6%, 14.8%, and 15.4% respectively. Pakistan saw an increase in wheat planting area, leading to a 1.0% increase in production.

In North America, the main wheat-producing regions in the United States and Canada experienced favorable agroclimatic conditions, with wheat production increasing by 5.4% and 4.4% respectively. Affected by high temperatures, most wheat-producing countries in Europe saw varying degrees of yield decrease, leading to production decreases in Hungary, Romania, and Italy. The UK and Turkey saw wheat production decreases of 1.0% and 4.3% respectively. France and Ukraine experienced significant decreases in wheat planting area, resulting in production decreases of 12.0% and 16.3% respectively.

Iran and Syria saw wheat production increases of 10.7% and 18.6%, reaching 13.22 million tonnes and 3.73 million tonnes respectively. Egypt's wheat production is entirely dependent on irrigation, with relatively stable planting area and yield, resulting in a slight decrease in total wheat production by 0.3%.

Soybean

The major global soybean exporters saw a slight increase in production, with China experiencing a significant increase in soybean production, relaxing the global soybean supply situation. Overall soybean production in the Southern Hemisphere increased, but Brazil's soybean growing period was affected by persistent drought resulting in expected total production of about 102.85 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.76 million tonnes or 3.5%. in contrast, Argentina experienced good rainfall during the soybean growing period, with both average yield and planting area increasing, leading to a significant production increase of 20.2%. The United States saw an increase in soybean planting area but a slight decrease in yield, resulting in a 1.8% decrease in soybean production. The total soybean production of Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, the three major soybean-producing countries, is 252.05 million tonnes, an increase of 2.95 million tonnes, indicating an overall favorable global soybean supply situation. China's soybean planting area increased significantly, with production reaching a record level, which is expected to lead to a decrease in imports.

5.1 2024 cereal and soybean production estimates in million tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2024 production when compared with corresponding 2023 values.