Introduction

This section summarizes global disaster events that occured between April and July 2024. It covers various shocks with food security implications, including the effects of armed conflict, desert locust outbreak, extreme heat and droughts, as well as floods.

Extreme conditions by type

Conflicts

The Democratic Republic of Congo: In recent months, tensions were escalating rising between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. Since October 2023, clashes between government forces and rebels in North Kivu have significantly worsened security and caused a humanitarian crisis. Between January and June 2024, an estimated 23.4 million people (22% of the population) are likely to experience severe food insecurity (IPC Phases 3 or above).

Sudan: The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces started in Khartoum in the early hours of April 15th, 2023. As a consequence, Sudan is facing the worst levels of acute food insecurity ever recorded by the IPC for this country. Over half the population (25.6 million people) face CRISIS or worse conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above) from June to September 2024. The risk of famine is especially critical for populations trapped in areas affected by direct conflict and/or insecurity and lack of protection.

Gaza strip: The damaged and ruined buildings include not only homes but also schools, hospitals, government offices and nearly every type of facility vital for service provision. About 28% of Gaza's agricultural land has been damaged, with Gaza and the northern governorate being most affected. Over 20% of irrigation wells are destroyed, and much agricultural infrastructure is damaged. The impact of the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip continues to be severe.

The entire strip is facing acute food insecurity and limited access to water, sanitation and health facilities. According to a report released on June 25th, 2024 by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) stated that a high risk of famine persists in Gaza and the situation "remains catastrophic" as the war between Israel and Hamas continues. According to the report, 96% of the population of Gaza – more than 2 million people – face crisis, emergency, or catastrophic levels of food insecurity through at least the end of September. The recent deaths of many Palestinian children due to hunger and malnutrition leaves no doubt that famine has spread across the entire Gaza strip, a group of independent experts said on July 9th, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine: Russia's special military operation has had a significant impact on Ukraine's agricultural sector. In March 2023, the World Bank, Kyiv School of Economics, European Union, and United Nations estimated that the Russian agression has resulted in a total of $40.2 billion in aggregate losses and damages to Ukraine's agriculture sector. The World Bank and partners estimated damage to the irrigation sector at a further $380.5 million.

CropWatch monitoring results show that both the planted area and yield of maize in Ukraine have decreased compared to the previous year, leading to a decline in the country's maize production to 22.61 million tonnes, a reduction of 13.2%. Ukraine's wheat planting area has significantly decreased, resulting in a 16.3% in wheat production compared to last year.

Desert locust

According to the 2024 FAO Desert Locust Bulletin from April to July, the Desert Locust outbreaks ended in Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan in April, where they had started in November 2023, while those in Egypt and Saudi Arabia subsided due to control measures. According to ground-based plant protection observations: In May, the second-generation winter breeding declined on the Red Sea coast, while one generation of limited spring breeding and control occurred in the interior of Saudi Arabia and Egypt with the presence of hoppers, several groups and some bands. In June, the spring season with hoppers, groups, bands, and a few adult groups had decreased significantly in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where the control efforts were nearly finished. The Desert Locust situation was calm during July.

In April 2024, the second-generation hoppers, bands, and adult groups decreased along the Red Sea coast of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Hatching and hopper groups were observed near the Nile valley in Southern Egypt. Scattered adults were present in various places in Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.

In May 2024, A few adults in central Sahara in Algeria. The second-generation winter breeding declinedon the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia (3 252 ha treated) and Egypt (8 255 ha), while one generation of limited spring breeding occurred in both countries in the interior, where there were some hoppers, groups and bands. A few adult groups were seen along the northern Nile Valley of Sudan (190 ha). Scattered adults were present in northwest Somalia and eastern Yemen.  A few isolated adults in southeast lran.

In June 2024, A few adults in the central Sahara of Algeria (95 ha treated) and Libya (20 ha). The one generation of limited spring breedingdeclined in Saudi Arabia (1 450 ha treated) where therewere some hoppers, groups and bands as well as fewadult groups in Egypt (1 410 ha). Mature adults and smallgroups increased in northern Sudan (56 ha), while small numbers of hopper groups and scattered adults decreasedin northwest Somalia (80 ha) and isolated adults in theinterior of Yemen. A few isolated adults in southeast lran.

In July 2024, A few adults in the central Sahara of Algeria. A few small groups and more scattered adultswere seen moving south in northern Sudan (30 ha treated), isolated immature adults continued to decline along the RedSea coast and interior of Egypt. A few isolated adults in Pakistan.

Figure 5.2. Desert locust situation, April 2024 – July 2024 (Source: https://www.fao.org/locust- watch/information/bulletin/en)

Drought

Extreme heat and drought: Extreme heat and drought: According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average global May temperature in 2024 was 1.18 ℃ above the 20th-century average of 14.8 ℃, ranking as the warmest May in NOAA's 175-year global record. May 2024 marked the 12th-consecutive month of record-high temperatures for the planet. Earth's ocean temperatures also set a record high for the 14th month in a row, according to data and scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. The regions with the largest positive temperature departures were in Central China, western Africa, Northern India, eastern Europe, Southern and central-western America and Southern Brazil.

May                                                      June

Figure 5.3. The monthly temperature anomaly（℃）during extreme heat period in May and June, 2024

Between April and June, some countries in the southern (such as Brazil and southern Africa) and northern hemisphere experienced severe meterological droughts. They negatively influenced crop growth in Eastern Europe, Eastern Africa, Nigeria, and India.

January to March, 2024                          April to June, 2024

Figure 5.4 The meteorological drought from January to March and from April to June, 2024

Floods events

Flood around the world: Global climate change boosts increases and exacerbates extreme flood events.  Devastating floods were observed in different parts of the globe from South America to Eastern and Southern Asia, causing a high number of casualties and losses        

Figure 5.5 The main flood events from June to July

Devastating floods in Brazil: Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil experienced the most severe floods in Aprill and May recorded in the past 80 years. From 29 April 2024 through to May 2024, the Rio Grande do Sul floods, caused by heavy rains and storms, resulted in 181 fatalities (as of 7 July 2024), widespread landslides, and a dam collapse. Based on Sentinel-1 satellite data, we estimated that a total of 114,855 ha cropland was submerged.  But the general economy of that state was affected as well, since it is the main distribution center and export channel for the state's agricultural products.

 Figure 5.6 Accumulated precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul flood in Brazil (April 29th-May 15th)

Figure 5.7 Flood submerged areas in Rio Grande do Sul flood in Brazil from April to May

Rainstorm and flash floods in Afghanistan: Three flood events affected Afghanistan. A rainstorm flood occurred from April 11th to April 14th. The maximum accumulated precipitation exceeded 160 mm and was in the central-southern Afghanistan. A flash flood occurred in the Hindukush Mountains of Afghanistan on May 10th. The 24-hour accumulated precipitation exceeded more 100 mm. Another flash flood occurred on July 15th, in the south slope of Hindukush Mountains.

Figure 5.8 The accumulated precipitation during April 11th to April 14th

Figure 5.9 The accumulated precipitation during May 10th

Figure 5.10 The accumulated precipitation during July 15th

Summer of devastating floods in China:  Since early June, unusually strong, stationary weather systems have produced frequent storms and heavy rainfall in China. Extreme precipitation was recorded in the central and northern Guangxi province, central Hunan, Southern Guizhou, Northern Jiangxi, Western Zhejiang, and Northern Fujian. The accumulated precipitation exceeded 705mm and even 933mm in some areas.

Dozens of rivers and lakes swelled to record high levels. Poyang Lake, for example, reached a record high of 22.6 meters on July 13, surpassing the annual average maximum of 19.2 meters. Across the wider region, flooding and landslides threatened villages and affected millions of people. In the areas of Poyang lake and neighborhood, the water body expended to 3,872 km².

Figure 5.11 The accumulated precipitation (June 9th to July 3rd, 2024)

Meizhou flood From June 16th to June 18th: Extreme precipitation caused a rare flood in Meizhou, Guangdong. The accumulated precipitation map shows that precipitation was mainly in Shiku River, Tingjiang, Meijiang and Hanjiang river basin and caused severe flash flood and landslides.

Figure 5.12 The accumulated precipitation during June 16th to June 18th

According to the remote sensing monitoring results of the Sentinel-1 satellite, the impact of floods has expanded in Xinpu Town and Sanlan Town at the Shikuo River Falls in Jiaoling County, as well as in the lower reaches of the Tingjiang River Falls and the Hanpu River in Dabu County.

Figure 5.13 The flood monitoring by remote sensing in Meizhou in June 2024

Dongting Lake Tuanzhou embankment bursts in Huarong county: Affected by the continuous heavy rainfall since mid-June 2024 and the sharp increase in upstream water, the dam was broken. The total area of Tuanzhou Embankment where the embankment burst occurred, is 52.34 km2, of which the cultivated land area is 39.57 km2. Based on Sentinel-2 images, as of July 10, most areas have been flooded.

Figure 5.14 Gaofen-3 remote sensing images before and after Tuanzhou embankment burst in Dongting Lake, Huarong County, Yueyang County, Hunan Province

(We thank the China Centre for Resources Satellite Data and Application for supplying the Gaofen-3 satellite imagery)