The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of November 2024. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing agri-climatic conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries"), while Chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) are harvested this year or currently still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from July to October 2024.

Agroclimatic conditions

2024 is on track to be the first year in which the critical threshold of 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels is surpassed. Heat waves affected Japan throughout the summer. In some parts of China, heat waves occurred in August and record-setting high temperatures exceeding 40ºC were recorded in Australia during August as well. El Niño has ended, but some regions, such as in southern Africa and the Amazon basin, still suffered from its lingering effects, as the extreme droughts, continued. Rainfall may return to normal levels in the coming months, as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is forecasted to stay in a neutral phase.

Global crop production situation

The global CPI for the forth quarter (July-October) of 2024 is 0.99, which is slightly higher than in the previous two years. It is close to 1, indicating that the global agricultural production situation was generally normal. Global food production in 2024 is expected to remain stable, with increases in rice, wheat, and soybean yields, while maize saw a slight decline. Total production of staple crops and oilseeds is projected at 2.901 billion tonnes, an increase of 26.85 million tonnes, approximately 0.9% up from 2023.

Maize:

In 2024, global production is estimated at 1.069 billion tonnes, a slight decrease of 0.75 million tonnes or 0.1%. Both the United States and China, the world's largest maize producers, reduced their planting areas. In the United States, as the world's largest maize producer, the planted area decreased slightly by 1.0%. Persistent rainy weather during the early growth stage in major producing regions adversely affected crop conditions. Production is estimated at 371.51 million tonnes. In China, the push to increase soybean production caused a reduction in maize area, resulting in a total maize production of 229.71 million tonnes. Production decreased by 3.04 million tonnes or 1.3%. In Canada, a reduced planting area caused an 8.4% decline in maize production, while in India, production decreased slightly by 1.7%. Mexico saw increases in both maize planting area and yield, leading to a production increase of 14.7%, the highest among major producing countries. In Europe, favorable weather conditions in major producing countries such as France and Germany contributed to increased maize production. However, hot and dry conditions in Eastern European countries such as Romania and Hungary reduced yields. This led to a production decline by 6.4% for Romania. In Hungary, the increase in area planted compensated for the yield decline, resulting in a production of 5.51 million tonnes.

In the Ukraine, the rainfall deficit as well as the ongoing war caused a decline in production by 12.8%, down to 22.73 million tonnes. In Argentina and Brazil, the sowing of the new maize crops started in October. Rainfall was close to normal.

Rice:

Global rice production in 2024 reached 767 million tonnes, an increase of 13.84 million tonnes or 1.8%. Southeast Asia, a key global rice producing and exporting region, saw slight production declines in most major producing countries. Due to the El Niño, the 2024 dry-season rice crop in Southeast Asia was dominated by hot and dry weather, leading to generally poor production. The rainfall shortages led to production declines in Bangladesh (-2%), Myanmar (-2.3%), and Laos (-0.9%).  However, rainfall levels returned to average starting with the monsoon season. Production increased in India by 6.7% to 186.44 million tonnes. In Pakistan, a significant expansion in planted area drove up rice production by 17.9% to 13.5 million tonnes. The cyclones starting in August negatively affected semi-late and late rice yield in China, resulting in a 0.7% total production decrease compared to 2023. China’s production is estimated at 194.44 million tonnes.

Wheat:

Global wheat production in 2024 is estimated at 743 million tonnes, an increase of 10.2 million tonnes or 1.4%. The overall outlook for global wheat production is favorable, easing tight supply pressures. However, productions vary significantly across regions. China, the world's largest wheat producer, saw a production increase of 1.8%, reaching 137.15 million tonnes, driven by simultaneous growth in both planted area and yield.  Similarly, an increase in area and yield in Central Asian countries led to production increases in Kazakhstan (+45.6%), Uzbekistan (+14.8%), and Kyrgyzstan (+15.4%). In Europe, wheat production was variable. Due to irregular rains, the majority of major wheat-producing countries in Europe experienced varying degrees of yield decline, such as Poland (-5.1%), Hungary (-5.6%), Romania (-1.8%), Italy (-0.3%), the UK (-15), and Russia (-0.2%). In France, yields improved slightly, but a 12.4% decrease in planted area led to a sharp 12.0% drop in production to 29.4 million tonnes, the lowest in five years. In Germany, higher yields drove a production increase by 4.3%. However, quality was generally poor in France and Germany, due to rainy weather during the harvest period. Meanwhile, in the Ukraine, the ongoing war severely impacted wheat production, with planted area shrinking by 13.7% and yields declining by 3.1%. Total production fell to 18.93 million tonnes, a decrease of 16.3%. In North America, better conditions than a year ago helped increase production by 5.4% in the USA to 58.66 million and by 4.4% in Canada to 29.17 million tonnes.

Soybean:

Global soybean production in 2024 is projected at 322 million tonnes, an increase of 3.56 million tonnes or 1.1%. Soybean planting in South America is off to a good start, with close to average rainfalls starting in October. Production estimates for the northern hemisphere are as follows: In the United States, a slight decline in soybean yields contributed to a 0.5% drop in total production to 99.98 million tonnes. Soybean production increased by 4.1% in India to 13.56 million tonnes, whereas in Canada, it dropped by 1.3% to 7.45 million tonnes. In China, soybean acreage expanded significantly by 7.6%, driving production to 18.65 million tonnes, an 8.6% increase. This growth is expected to reduce the soybean imports.