Chapter 3. Core countries

3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and

beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 46 countries

that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As

evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance

are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit

into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”,including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro-ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well. In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 47 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize,

rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of

the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice,

wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops,

whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports are being dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Together, they are supplying three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Brazil has substantially increased its production in recent years, whereas Ukraine’s export has been hampered by the Russian invasion. No significant maize production took place during this monitoring in the southern hemisphere. In the USA, conditions for maize production were generally favorable and high yields are expected in the corn belt. In the eastern regions of the corn belt, some periods with water deficits, especially during the grain filling period, limited yields. In Canada, production conditions were similar to last year’s and a good production can be expected as well. In France and Germany, conditions were rather favorable. However, Poland and Eastern Europe, including the Ukraine, were affected by droughts and lower production has to be expected. Conditions in China were generally favorable, aided by above average rainfall.

Rice: Conditions for monsoon (Kharif) season rice production were generally favorable in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The official onset of the monsoon in India occurred a few days earlier than in recent years. It covered the entire country on July 2^nd. Some localized flooding affected rice production in Sindh, Pakistan as well as in Eastern India and Bangladesh. Southeast Asia benefitted from regular monsoon rains and normal production can be expected. The Philippines were hit by several typhoons, causing some yield losses. In China, conditions were favorable and a high production can be expected. However, localized flooding caused by typhoons caused some yield losses. In the USA, excessive rainfall in California in May caused a reduction in planted area. In the south and southeast, water supply was adequate to support a good production.

Wheat: Conditions for wheat production in the major exporting countries, such as USA and Canada were generally favorable. In Western Europe, excessive moisture during the sowing period in the fall of 2023 led to a reduction in area planted. Frequent rainfall during the harvest period in July and August caused some sprouting in France and Germany, which in turn reduced the quality of the wheat. Eastern Europe was negatively affected by drier than normal conditions. Especially the Ukraine and Romania were negatively affected. In Russia, its important southern wheat production region around  Krasnodar and Stavropol was affected by severe droughts, as well as its Caucasus region. Conditions were more favorable in the Wolga region. Kazakhstan benefitted from above average rainfall, resulting in above average yields. Rainfall in the Cape region of South Africa was above average, resulting in above average wheat production. In China, only spring wheat was harvested in the northeast during this period. Conditions were favorable.

Soybean: In the USA and Canada, conditions for soybean production were generally favorable, and high yields are expected. The upper Midwest in the USA experienced some drought conditions, leading to yield reductions. The Ukraine, as well as Romania were affected by drought conditions, causing yield reductions. In China, soybeans benefitted from above average rainfall in the North China Plain and the Northeast and a high production can be expected. In South America, soybean sowing started in Brazil in October. After the prolonged drought, regular rains in October created favorable conditions for crop establishment of soybeans. In Argentina, soybean planting starts in November. Rainfall in October was rather favorable.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In Argentina, rainfall varied greatly among the provinces. Among its important wheat-producing regions, it was below average in the provinces of La Pampa (-29%), and Buenos Aires (-35%), while it was near average in Santa Fe (-3%) and far above average in  Cordoba (+92%). In Brazil, both Parana (-51%) and Rio Grande do Sul (-27%) experienced strong rainfall deficits. However, supplemental irrigation is widely used in Parana. In Central America and in Mexico, rainfall was generally favorable, aiding maize production. All states in the western half of the USA had a rainfall deficit greater than 10%. In the Pacific Northwest, wheat reached maturity in July. Hence, the deficit had little impact on wheat production. In the other states, irrigation is widely practiced, such as in Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas. The corn belt also had a slight rainfall deficit. However, its deep soils generally have a high water holding capacity. In Canada, wheat and maize benefitted from ample early-season rainfall. Hence, the precipitation deficits had little impact on production. Rainfall in Western Europe was above average, aiding production of summer crops. Most of Eastern Europe had a rainfall deficit, affecting maize production in Romania, the Ukraine and in Russia. Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, benefitted from above average rainfall.

Most of the Sahel countries with rainfed crop production received above average rainfall. In Nigeria, rainfall levels were still sufficient to sustain favorable crop growth, despite of a rainfall deficit. The rainfall deficits in southern Africa had little impact on crop production, as generally, no crops are grown during the dry winter months. Rice production in South Asia benefited from above-average rainfall, whereas in Southeast Asia, rainfall was average, providing favorable conditions. In China, most crop production regions had average to above-average rainfall. Especially maize production in the North China Plain benefitted from above average rainfall. A deficit greater than 10% was recorded for the provinces of Hubei and Hunan. Rainfall in Western Australia was average, while a deficit was recorded for the important wheat production regions in the Southeast.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of July to October 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.2 Temperatures

In almost all parts of Earth, temperatures were average or warmer as compared to the 15YA. The only notable exceptions in regions with significant crop production were Senegal, Eritrea, northern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Temperatures in these regions were 0.5 to 1.5ºC below the 15YA.  Regions with the highest positive departures of 1.5ºC and higher were the Central and Northern Plains in North America, Eastern Europe, the Korean Peninsula, Japan and parts of China.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of July to October 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in °C .

2.3 RADPAR

Solar radiation was more than 3% below the 15YA in Central America, Florida, most of West Africa, Ethiopia, France, Italy, Pakistan, and the Northeast of China. However, almost all other regions of China had solar radiation levels that were 3% or more above the 15YA. In Central Asia, the severity of the deficit varied among the subregions. Above average solar radiation was recorded for most of Argentina, Brazil and the eastern half of North America. Europe east of Germany also had higher levels of solar radiaton, exceeding the average by more than 3%. Southeast Asia and the crop production regions of Australia had above average solar radiation levels.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of July to October 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in tropical regions during the rainy season, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high-latitude regions, the temperature may also limit biomass production. In South America, biomass was mostly below average, with the only exception being the region along the foothills of the Andes in Argentina. Biomass production was average in Central America, but 5 to 10% below average in Mexico. Negative departures were estimated for most of the USA and Canada as well. A positive departure exceeding +10% was estimated for France, Italy, Senegal, Mali, Sudan, the Arabian Peninsula, most of Central and South Asia as well as the North China Plain and the Northeast of China. For the important rice production regions of southeast Asia, no departure from the 15YA was estimated. A strong negative departure was estimated for Eastern Europe.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of July to October 2024 total relative to the 2009-2023 average (15YA), in percent.

2.5 Crop Conditions Index

The CPI spatial distribution map for July to October 2024 shows that crop production conditions in East Asia, South Asia, the Corn Belt and the Northern Plains of USA, Canada, and Argentina are generally close to normal levels. However, conditions are poorer along the Black Sea coast, in Brazil, and South Africa. On the other hand, production conditions are relatively favorable in parts of Central Asia, the semi-arid to semi-humid regions and southwestern wheat-growing areas of Australia, as well as along the Mediterranean coast of Western Europe.

Figure 3.5 Spatial distribution of CPI in global agro-ecological zones (AEZs)