During the reporting period from July to October, Spring wheat reached maturity and was harvested in August. Maize was in its peak growth phase in July. Its harvested started in August. Rice was in its main growth period from July to September. Harvest peaked in October.  While winter wheat had already been harvested in June, land preparations for the next planting cycle commenced in October.

During this reporting period, agro-climatic conditions reflected favorable support for crop growth. Recorded RAIN totaled 61mm, 29% above the 15YA. The TEMP was 20.5°C, slightly above the 15YA by 1.3°C. RADPAR reached 1421 MJ/m², marking a 2% decrease from the 15YA, while BIOMSS, estimated at 475 gDM/m², was 16% above the 15YA. The CALF was recorded at 8%, a 16% increase over average levels. However, this was the dry summer period and most crop production depended on irrigation.

Based on the Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA, crop conditions significantly exceeded the average levels across 6.5% of the monitored cropland areas, primarily concentrated in eastern Afghanistan, including Khost, Nangarhar, and Kunar provinces. Approximately 57.9% of croplands displayed average crop growth, indicating stable agricultural conditions across nearly half of croplands. However, 33.6% of croplands experienced slightly below-average crop conditions, particularly in northern Afghanistan. Only minimal areas exhibited significantly below-average crop growth, with these regions being scattered throughout the country. Most croplands showed crop growth at or above average levels. However, this is contrary to the VCIx of 0.52 and CPI of 0.97, which remained low. This discrepancy can be attributed to the prolonged poor agricultural production conditions and the multiyear drought, which have lowered the overall average levels.

In summary, agro-climatic conditions during this period were generally favorable, supporting stable crop growth for crops. RAIN was above the 15YA, and although TEMP was slightly below normal, they had minimal impact on crop conditions. Increases in BIOMSS and CALF indicate an overall strengthening in agricultural productivity. Nevertheless, areas with below-average crop growth, especially in northern Afghanistan, warrant attention to mitigate agricultural production risks. 

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivided Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

During the reporting period, the Central region with sparse vegetation, recorded a total RAIN of 21 mm, which was 39% below the average. The region's TEMP was recorded at 17.4°C, which was 2.3°C above the 15YA. RADPAR measured 1433 MJ/m², showing a 1% decrease from the average. BIOMSS was estimated at 377 gDM/m², reflecting a 12% increase over the 15YA. The CALF was 9%, marking a 13% increase over the average. NDVI-based crop condition development graphs indicated that crop growth was at normal levels. The VCIx for the region was 0.7, and the CPI was calculated at 1.03, suggesting that crop growth in this region was close to normal levels.

In the Dry region, total RAIN reached 62 mm, representing a 62% increase over the average. The TEMP was recorded at 23.8°C, exceeding the 15YA by 2.2°C. RADPAR measured 1434 MJ/m², indicating a 3% decrease compared to the average. BIOMSS reached 509 gDM/m², showing a 21% increase above the 15YA. The CALF was 6%, reflecting a 31% increase over the average. NDVI-based crop condition graphs showed that crop growth was at normal levels. However, the VCIx was 0.38, pointing to poor crop conditions in this region. The CPI was calculated at 1.05.

In the Mixed Dry Farming and Irrigated Cultivation region, RAIN totaled 86 mm, 15% above the 15YA. The TEMP was 18.3°C, 0.7°C higher than average. RADPAR was recorded at 1402 MJ/m², while BIOMSS was 477 gDM/m², indicating a 1% decrease relative to the average. The CALF was 13%, a notable increase of 12% above average values. NDVI-based crop condition graphs showed that crop growth remained at normal levels. However, the VCIx of 0.51 and the CPI of 0.97 signal suboptimal agricultural conditions in this region.

In the Mixed Dry Farming and Grazing region, total RAIN was recorded at 17 mm, 89% above the average. The TEMP was 21.4°C, 1.1°C above the average. RADPAR reached 1438 MJ/m², showing a 2% reduction from the average. BIOMSS was estimated at 444 gDM/m², reflecting a 21% increase over the 15YA. The CALF was reported at only 1%, consistent with the limited cropland in this grazing-dominated region. NDVI-based crop condition graphs indicated that crop growth remained at average levels. The VCIx was 0.66, and the CPI was 1.01, suggesting suboptimal agricultural conditions for the region.

Figure 3.6 Afghanistan’s crop condition, July‐October 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                              (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                    (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

(j) CPI time series graph

Table 3.1 Afghanistan's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Afghanistan's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024