Bulletin

wall bulletin
AustraliaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: zhaodan | Edit: lirui

The current period covers the late sowing and main growth periods of wheat. Some fields already reached maturity by the end of this monitoring period. Similar to the same period of last year, the weather was rather dry and warm. The national NDVI profile was largely below average from July to August, and then above average. This was probably because of the abundant rainfall in mid-August, as shown in the rainfall profile.

Generally, the rainfall was lower than the 15-year average (RAIN -14%, equal to only 178 mm). The average temperature was higher (TEMP +0.9°C) while the sunshine was average (RADPAR +1%). Biomass was below the 15YA (BIOMSS -5%). The agronomic indicators were favorable, with an increased CALF (+7%) and CI (+8%),   and a VCIx of 0.86.

The conditions in the three of four main wheat production states (New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria,) were generally similar, with largely below-average rainfall (-19%, -36% and -25%), slightly warmer temperatures (+1.0°C, +0.7°C and +0.7°C), and above-average sunshine (+1%, +7% and +6%). These conditions led to a decrease in estimated biomass production (-7%, -19% and -12%).  Conditions in Western Australia were slightly different, with all agroclimatic indicators above the 15YA (RAIN +5%, TEMP, +0.8°C, RADPAR, +1%, BIOMSS, +3%)

Spatially, the VCI map shows that the VCIx in Australia was good. It was mostly ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. A few low values appeared in South Australia. The spatial NDVI profiles show the same pattern. About 38.9% cropland had below average NDVI, while 31.3% were average, and the others were above average.

Overall, the crop conditions for Australia were average.

 

Regional analysis

Australia has five agro-ecological zones (AEZs), namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 on the NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

The Southeastern wheat zone had largely below average rainfall (-32%), above average temperature (+0.9°C) and solar radiation (+5%). Consequently, the average biomass accumulation estimation was 16% lower than the 15YA. The CALF  increased slightly (+2%), and the cropping intensity increased as well (+13%). The VCIx and CPI were 0.81 and 0.93, respectively. The NDVI profile showed that the conditions from July to mid-August were poor, and then above average, due to the abundant rainfall that appeared in mid-August.  Conditions were slightly unfavorable in this AEZ.

The subhumid subtropical zone also encountered below average rainfall (-12%), above average temperature (+1.0°C), but the solar radiation slightly decreased (-1%). The average biomass accumulation estimation was predicted as average. The CALF largely increased (+36%), as well as the cropping density (+7%). The good VCIx (0.90) and CPI (1.46) both indicated a good condition. The NDVI profile showed the same pattern, the conditions from mid-August to October were better than the 5YA.

The conditions in the Southwestern wheat zone were different, with all agro-climatic indicators above average (RAIN +5%, TEMP +0.7°C, RADPAR +2%, BIOMSS +2%). The CALF increased by 5%, while the cropping intensity was average (-1%). The VCIx of 0.94 and CPI of 1.14 both showed good conditions. The NDVI profile was below average from July to early August, and then improved to above average.

The Wet temperate and subtropical zone had the same agro-climatic indicator departures as the Subhumid subtropical zone. The rainfall was below average (-10%), the temperature increased by 0.8°C, and the solar radiation was average. The biomass accumulation estimation was also average. The agronomic indicators were near average, with increased CALF (+4%) and CI (+14%). The VCIx and CPI were 0.82 and 1.01, respectively. The NDVI profile was below average from July to August, and then above average.

Overall, combining the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in the current period were average.



Figure 3.1 Australia’s crop condition, July – October 2024

(a)Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                     (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                  (g) Temperature profiles

                                                               

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone) (k) CPI time series graph of Australia


Table 3.1 Australia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national   regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current (mm)

Departure (%)

Current (°C)

Departure (°C)

Current (MJ/m2)

Departure (%)

Current (gDM/m2)

Departure    (%)

Arid and     semiarid zone

70

0

23.3

0.7

1217

-2

498

2

Southeastern     wheat area

156

-32

12.8

0.9

873

5

473

-16

Subhumid     subtropical zone

140

-12

16.3

1.0

1053

-1

517

0

Southwestern     wheat area

247

5

13.7

0.7

877

2

607

2

Wet temperate     and subtropical zone

217

-10

13.9

0.8

938

0

596

0











 

2 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2024

Region

Cropped arable land fraction

Cropping intensity

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Current (%)

Departure (%)

Current

Current

Arid and     semiarid zone

66

16

121

6

0.83

0.97

Southeastern     wheat area

95

2

121

13

0.81

0.93

Subhumid     subtropical zone

81

36

123

7

0.90

1.46

Southwestern     wheat area

97

5

101

-1

0.94

1.14

Wet temperate     and subtropical zone

97

4

130

14

0.82

1.01