During the reporting period, the harvest of the Aus rice crop was completed in August. The planting of the main rice crop (Aman) ended in August and the harvest will begin in November. For the whole reporting period, rainfall was below average (-7%) while TEMP was above average (+0.6℃). RADPAR was close to the 15YA. This resulted in BIOMASS being slightly below average (-1%). The national NDVI development graph shows that overall crop conditions were slightly above the 5-year average in July and close to average in August, but they were slightly below average in September and October. The spatial NDVI pattern showed that most areas were below average through this period. Affected by uneven distribution of precipitation, crop conditions varied widely across the country, 45.1% experienced a rapid recovery to average before September and 23.8% slowly recovered to average over this reporting period, while 31% had a continuous reduction in August and returned to average in early September mainly distributed in the northern Bangladesh. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.89, with most areas showing values higher than 0.8 and CALF was close to the 5YA (93%). The Cropping intensity was 172% and Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.98. Overall, the crop conditions in most parts of Bangladesh were close to average.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Coastal region (23), the Gangetic Plain (24), the Hills (25), and the Sylhet basin (26).

In the Coastal region, RAIN and TEMP were above average (+7% and +0.6°C), while RADPAR and BIOMASS were below average (-3% and -2%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were above the 5-year average from July to September. They dropped to average in October. Above average rainfall in the reporting period had a slightly negative effect on Aman rice. Cropping intensity (CI 159%) was close to the 5YA. CALF was 92% (-1%) and VCIx was 0.86, Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.94. Overall, crop conditions were close to average for this zone.

RAIN was greatly below average (-24%) in the Gangetic Plain in this period. Both TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.6°C and +1%, respectively). The BIOMSS was slightly below average (-1%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5YA for the entire period. During the monitoring period, CALF (97%) was above average (+1%) while CI was below the 5YA (-1%). VCIx was 0.94 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.00. Crop conditions of this region were close to the average.

The Hills recorded more rainfall than the 5YA (+9%) and warmer temperature (+0.4℃). The RADPAR was close to average. Potential biomass for the Hills was estimated 4% lower than the 15YA average. The crop conditions experienced a deterioration from above average to below average due to heavy rains and flooding in August. Cropping intensity was above the 5YA (+3%). CALF was 98% and VCIx was 0.93, Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.95. Overall, crop conditions were close to the average.

The Sylhet basin had less rainfall (-3%). TEMP was above the 15YA (+0.5℃) while RADPAR was below the 15YA (-1%). Potential biomass for the Sylhet basin was close to the 15YA. Both CALF and CI were lower than the 5YA by 1% (87% and 163%, respectively) and VCIx was 0.84 for the area. Crop development based on NDVI was near or slightly below average in this period except for August and the end of October. However, these low values might be an artifact caused by cloud cover in the satellite images. Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.96. Based on the above information, near-average prospects for rice in this zones can be expected.

Figure 3.5 Bangladesh’s crop condition, July - October 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                            

  (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA               (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                                                                                            

  (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(k)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

Table 3.1 Bangladesh's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Bangladesh's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024