The reporting period includes the harvesting of spring wheat from August to September and the planting of winter wheat in October. The nationwide rainfall amount was 172 mm, 37% below the 15YA. Average temperatures were warmer (+2.6°C) and solar radiation was above average (RADPAR, 867 MJ/m², +8%). The potential biomass was below average (-17%). Agronomic conditions were generally favorable: good values of VCIx (0.88), cropping intensity (CI, 109%) and cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 100%) were observed. Low rainfall in late October hampered the establishment of the new winter wheat crop.

Belarus had experienced a rainfall deficit during the monitoring period. The low rainfall and warmer temperatures in September might have led to NDVI below the 15YA, which continued into October. Crop condition on about 68% of cropped areas were close to or slightly above the 5-year average, but the other areas remained below average. According to the VCIx distribution map, VCIx was satisfactory in most cropped areas of the country (above 0.8). The agricultural production index was below 1.0 (CPI, 0.96), indicating average prospects. Overall, conditions were slightly unfavorable.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus recorded a solar radiation increase (8%) combined with higher temperatures (+2.5°C) and lower rainfall (-37%).  Potential biomass decreased by 18%. The VCIx was 0.89, and CALF had reached 100%, with a CPI of 0.95. The NDVI development curve was generally below average level in October.

Central Belarus also experienced increased radiation (+8%) and higher temperature (+2.6°C) and decreased rainfall (-36%). High CALF (100%), VCIx (0.87) and CPI (0.96) were recorded. Similar to overall country, the NDVI growth curve was generally below the average trend from September to October. The potential biomass decreased by about 17%. Yields may be impacted by the weather anomalies experienced during this period.

Rainfall in Southern Belarus was also below the 15YA average level (-39%), and the temperature was higher by 2.6°C and radiation increased by 8%. Potential biomass decreased by 18%. The CALF and the VCIx were 100% and 0.87 respectively. The CPI of 0.96 indicated that the overall production potential was below average , which, combined the greatest rainfall deficit, may lead to lower crop yields.

Figure 3.5 Belarus’s crop condition, July 2024- October 2024.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI    

  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles  

 (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

(k) CPI time series   

Table 3.1 Belarus's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Belarus's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024