The agricultural situation in Brazil from July to October 2024 reflects a period of transition and challenge, marked by the conclusion of winter crop harvests and the commencement of summer crop sowing. Wheat harvests are progressing towards completion by December, while maize harvesting in the Northeast continues. Rice and second maize harvests in the North and Northeast, as well as Central and Southern Brazil, concluded by August. The sowing of summer crops, including maize, soybean, and rice, began in October, with expectations to continue until the end of December. This period also signifies the end of the dry season and the onset of the rainy season, with precipitation profiles indicating below-average rainfall compared to the last 15 years and a delayed start to the wet season. Such conditions may hinder the timely sowing, emergence, and early development of summer crops.
The winter crops growing season  was characterized by dry and warmer-than-usual weather, with CropWatch Agro-climatic Indicators (CWAIs) showing 56% lower rainfall and 1.6°C higher temperatures than the 15-year average (15YA). Photosynthetic Active Radiation (RADPAR) presented a 6% increase compared with 15YA. The adverse weather conditions led to a 20% reduction in potential biomass. Dry weather conditions were wide-spread across all of Brazil with all states receiving below-average rainfall. The extreme dry weather was observed in several major agricultural producing states such as Goias, Mato Grosso, and Sao Paulo with over 70% negative rainfall anomalies. Similarly, almost all states experenced above-average temperature except for Rio Grande do Norte where the temperate remained at same level as 15YA. The largest temperature anomalies were observed in five states including Minas Gerais, Amazonas, Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana where temperatures were more than 2.0 degree higher than the 15YA. Positive anomalies of RADPAR were observed in most states except for Amapa, Roraima and Amazonas, with the largest positive departure in Santa Catarina and Rio de Janeiro at 11% and 12% above average, respectively. Low rainfall, high temperatures and above average radiation altogether resulted in severe water stress across the country. The BIOMSS was in general well below average, as shown in the BIOMSS departure map.

The NDVI-based crop condition development graph for Brazil also indicates that the water stress negatively affected crop development, with 81.7% of the country experiencing below-average crop conditions from early July to late September. Crop condition exhibited a gradual recovery in October, with 61.5% of crops at above-average condition by the end of the month. In terms of spatial distribution, crops in the southern and central regions exhibited below-average NDVI, while other regions remained at or below average. It is noteworthy that parts of the Nordest, eastern Central Savanna, and central eastern Coast regions (depicted in orange on the map) exhibited above-average crop conditions throughout the monitoring period. There was a discernible improvement in crop condition in the Parana basin (shown in light green on the map) since July, which is likely attributable to irrigation systems. Conversely, extensive areas in the northeastern mixed agriculture and forestry regions, northeast coast, and northern part of the Parana Basin exhibited deteriorated crop conditions.
The VCIx map corroborates these patterns, with high values in the northeast coast and southern part of Parana River Basin contrasting with lower values in central Brazil, particularly the Central Savanna zone and northern part of Parana River Basin. Nationally, the VCIx was 0.75, the lowest value in the past ten years. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was at 89%, 4% below the 5-year average (5YA). Cropping intensity decreased by 3% annually, indicating a below-average total cultivated crop area. 

Overall, due to the continous dry spell and warmer weather, overall crop production outlook for Brazil is unfavorable with the Crop Production Index (CPI) dropped to 0.80, reflecting an overall below-average crop production. As it is still at early stage of the 2024-2025 summer crops, the outputs will mainly depend on the weather conditions in the coming months. CropWatch will keep watch the crops and provide updated prediction in the 2025 quarterly Bulletin.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna(31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland(33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste(35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands(37). Similar to the national wide dry and hot weather patterns, all the AEZs received significantly below average rainfall, ranging from 25% below 15YA in Southern subtropical rangelands to 69% below 15YA in Mato Grosso AEZ. Above average temperature (0.6 ºC to 2.0 ºC) were observed among different AEZs. Together with the above average RADPAR, all AEZs presented below average potential biomass (-6% in Nordeste to -34% in Northeastern mixed forest and farmland). Considering the current agriculture practices, this bulletin focuses on Central Savanna (31), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). 

Brazilian wheat is predominantly cultivated in the Southern Subtropical Rangelands and the Paraná Basin. In the Southern Subtropical Rangelands, rainfall during the reporting period reached 460 mm, the highest among all agro-ecological zones (AEZs). However, this was significantly lower than the same period last year and 25% below the long-term average. Rainfall exhibited substantial temporal variations over the past four months, with significant deficits compared to the 15-year average (15YA) from late June to mid-September. The exception was early August, which recorded 40 mm above-average rainfall. Near- or above-average rainfall from late September to mid-October supported wheat grain filling, while reduced rainfall in late October further benefited crop maturation. Overall, the winter crop performed close to average, with a Vegetation Condition Index maximum (VCIx) of 0.82. The cultivated area of land fraction (CALF) was 1% below the 5-year average (5YA), while the cropping intensity (CI) was 2% higher than the 5YA. This reflects a slight decrease in winter crop area but also an increase in the preceding summer crop area. Despite these conditions, wheat production was below average, as indicated by the Crop Production Index (CPI) of 0.87.
In the Paraná Basin, rainfall was 51% below average, leading to a 20% reduction in biomass production potential (BIOMSS). Although water availability and irrigation partially mitigated the drought's impact, crop conditions remained below the 5YA level, as shown by the NDVI-based crop development profile. The CALF for the wheat season was 7% below the 5YA, and the CI was 128%, slightly (1%) below the 5YA. The average VCIx in this region was 0.72, the lowest in a decade. Consequently, wheat production was below average, with a CPI of 0.79, placing the Paraná Basin among the lowest-performing AEZs in Brazil.
Other regions, including the Central Savanna, Mato Grosso, and Nordeste zones, also experienced challenging conditions due to dry and hot weather. Rainfall was consistently below average, while temperatures were above average, resulting in reduced BIOMSS. VCIx values in the Central Savanna and Mato Grosso zones were the lowest among all AEZs. The CPI values for these three regions were 0.65 and 0.77, marking them as the lowest-ranking AEZs for wheat production in Brazil.

For more indicators and detailed information, please visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.15 Brazil's crop condition, July - October 2024