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CanadaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: tianfuyou | Edit: lirui

The monitoring period extends from July through October 2024, encompassing the wheat harvesting season in August and September. In the Saint Lawrence Basin, soybean and maize harvest occurred in October, while the planting of winter wheat commenced in September. According to the NDVI development gragh, the crop condition was slightly below average before September and above average in October.

According to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, Canada had warmer and dryer weather than usual in this reporting period. Rainfall (RAIN -18%) was below the 15YA, while average temperature (TEMP +1.6℃) and solar raditiation were above (RADPAR +5%). These factors contributed to a lower than average estimate for potential biomass production (BIOMSS -7%). 

The NDVI cluster map revealed that 23.9% of the cropped areas, predominantly situated in southern Saskatchewan and central Alberta (indicated in light green), exhibited a decline in crop health starting in July, improvement in September, and levels surpassing the average in October. In contrast, crop conditions in the remaining regions were generally average. Overall, the annual cropping intensity reached 108%, marking a 3% increase compared to the five-year average (5YA). The maximum vegetation condition index(VCIx) reached 0.92, and the CALF was also above the 5YA (CALF +2%).

In short, taking into account the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, along with a Crop Production Index (CPI) of 1.03 during this monitoring period, the overall status of Canada’s summer crops is evaluated to be close to average.


Regional analysis 

The Prairies (Zone 53) and Saint Lawrence Basin (Zone 49) are the major agricultural regions in Canada.

The Prairies, Canada’s primary agricultural hub, predominantly cultivates winter and spring wheat, alongside canola and sunflowers. This season, conditions were notably drier and warmer compared to the 15-year average. Precipitation fell well below the average (RAIN 174 mm, -27%), while average temperatures were higher (TEMP +2.3℃), accompanied by increased radiation (RADPAR +6%). Rainfall in the Prairies was particularly scarce at the onset of July and throughout September. This shortfall in rainfall contributed to a potential production decrease (BIOMSS -11%). NDVI development graph and NDVI profile suggest that crop conditions hovered slightly below average during the monitoring period. The CALF remained at 99%, surpassing the 5YA. With a VCIx of 1.04, overall crop conditions in the Prairies were close to average.

Meanwhile, the Saint Lawrence basin experienced significantly warmer (TEMP +1.0°C) and drier conditions (RAIN -19%) than the 15-year average. While Radiation was above average (RADPAR, 6%). The potential BIOMSS saw an 8% decrease. Crop conditions, as per NDVI analysis, were at average levels until October but then slightly declined. Consequently, production in this area is projected to be average.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                     (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

(i) CPI time series graph


Table 3.1 Canada's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

Saint Lawrence basin

349

-19

15.5

1.0

954

6

839

-8

Prairies

174

-27

15.6

2.3

1020

6

573

-11

Table 3.2 Canada's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

CI

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current

Saint Lawrence basin

100

-0

124

8.20

0.93

0.98

Prairies

99

2

102

0.39

0.92

1.04