Bulletin

wall bulletin
GermanyMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: wufm | Edit: lirui

During this monitoring period, the harvest of summer crops was mostly completed by the end of October, whereas the sowing of canola and winter wheat started in September. Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Germany were a little worse than average in most regions. Above average rainfall in July caused challenging conditions for harvest of the winter cereals and in late September and early October, harvest of maize was negatively impacted as well. However, the drier than usual second half of October provided good conditions for sowing of the winter cereals.

As shown in the crop condition development graph and the NDVI profiles at the national level, NDVI values were close to the 5YA in July and early August, but otherwise below the average. The harvesting of summer crops and the recent planting of canola and winter wheat resulted in low NDVI values in October. These observations are confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: all regional NDVI values were below average in October, and 19.5% the regional NDVI values were below average during this monitoring period. These negative departures were due to below-average rainfall in the late August and late October. Overall VCIx for Germany was 0.87. CALF was 100% during the reporting period. The cropping intensity decreased by 3% compared to the recent five-year average.

According to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, total precipitation (ΔRAIN +6%) temperature (ΔTEMP +0.8°C) and radiation (ΔRADPAR +3%) were above average at the national level. As shown in the time series rainfall profile for Germany, precipitation was overall below average, but significantly above average in September and early October. Most of the country experienced warmer-than-usual conditions during this reporting period, except for early July and early September. The biomass production potential (BIOMSS) was estimated to increase by 4% nationwide as compared to the fifteen-year average.

The crops are mainly rainfed crops in Germany, and irrigation rates are relatively low (7.2%). Adequate precipitation in late August mitigated the impact of early drought conditions on summer crops. The Crop Production Index (CPI) is 0.97. It indicates close to a normal agricultural production situation in the current season. All in all, crop conditions in Germany for this monitoring period can be assessed as fair.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, six sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Germany. They include: the Wheat Zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast (56), Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest (57), Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia (55), Sparse Crop Area of the East-German Lake and Heathland area (54), Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif (59) and the Bavarian Plateau (58).

Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic Coast are among the major winter wheat zones of Germany. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were close to average during this monitoring period, except for September and October, when NDVI was below average. The area has a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.84). The cropping intensity decreased by 2.5% as compared to the average. Radiation (ΔRADPAR +8%) and temperature (ΔTEMP +0.7°C) was above average in this region. Total precipitation was below average (ΔRAIN -10%). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to increase by 2% as compared to the average.

Wheat and sugar beets are the major crops in the Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were above average except in October, when they were below the average level. The area has a high CALF (100%) and crop conditions for the region are favorable according to the high VCIx (0.88).  The cropping intensity decreased by 2% as compared to the average. According to the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, radiation (ΔRADPAR +3%) was above average in this region. Total precipitation was close to average and temperature was above average (ΔTEMP +0.7°C). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to increase by 5% as compared to the average. 

Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia is another major winter wheat zone. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were above average except in September and October, when they were below the average level. The area has a high CALF (100%) and the VCIx was 0.88 for this region. The cropping intensity increased by 3% as compared to the average. Temperatures and radiation were both above average (ΔTEMP +1.1°C; ΔRADPAR +6%), but rainfall was below average (ΔRAIN -8%), which led to a increase in BIOMSS by 1%.

As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI of East-German Lake and Heathland Sparse Crop Area, the values were above or near average except for September and October when they were below average. The area has a high CALF (100%) and the VCIx was 0.85 for this region. The cropping intensity increased by 0.4% as compared to the average. Significantly below-average precipitation was recorded (ΔRAIN -10%). But temperatures and radiation were both above average (ΔTEMP +1.3°C; ΔRADPAR +5%). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to decrease by 3% as compared to the average.

As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif, the values were above average throughout the monitoring period except in September and October, when they were below average. The CALF was 100% for the regions. The VCIx value was 0.89. The cropping intensity decreased by 12% as compared to the average. Total precipitation (ΔRAIN +7%), temperature (ΔTEMP +0.8°C) and solar radiation (ΔRADPAR -1%) were above average. The biomass potential (BIOMSS) increased by 7% compared to the 15YA.

As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Bavarian Plateau, the values were below average except for mid-July and early October, when they were near average. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.86). The cropping intensity decreased by 2% as compared to the average. Total precipitation and temperature were above average (ΔRAIN +19%; ΔTEMP +0.7°C) with radiation was below average (ΔRADPAR +1%). Compared to the fifteen-year average, BIOMSS increased by 7%. 


Figures 3.2 Germany's crop condition, July - October 2024
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles(g) Temperature profiles
(h) National CPI time series graph
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif,right:Bavarian Plateau)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast,right:Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia,right:East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area)


Table 3.1 Germany's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area

256

-10

16.6

1.3

909

5

716

-2

Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia

241

-8

16.1

1.1

925

6

707

1

Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast

302

-10

16.3

0.9

863

8

803

2

Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west

292

-0

15.8

0.7

878

6

779

5

Bavarian Plateau

460

19

14.9

0.7

943

-1

877

7

Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif

277

7

15.4

0.8

927

4

749

7

Table 3.2 Germany's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

Maximum VCI

CI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

East-German lake and Heathland sparse crop area

100

0

0.85

142

0.4

0.96

Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia

100

0

0.88

147

3.3

1.01

Wheat zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast

100

-0

0.84

138

2.5

0.95

Mixed wheat and sugarbeets zone of the north-west

100

0

0.88

136

2.1

0.99

Bavarian Plateau

100

0

0.86

141

2.5

0.94

Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif

100

0

0.89

165

12.2

1.00