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Authors: gaoww,Abdelrazek | Edit: lirui
The reporting period from July to October encompasses the growth and harvesting of key summer crops, such as maize and rice. As we approach early November, preparations are underway for the sowing of winter wheat. The average rainfall during this period was 1 mm, reflecting arid conditions. The average temperature reached 26.5°C, which is 0.8°C above 15YA. Overall, the temperature profile indicates consistently warmer conditions compared to the 15YA, with the exception of October, when temperatures fluctuated around the 15YA. RADPAR remained consistent with the 15YA, while BIOMSS fell shortly by 14% compared to the 15YA. The nationwide NDVI profile slightly dropped below the 5-year average (5YA) towards the end of this monitoring period. The spatial analysis of NDVI reveals that 11.8% of the cultivated area was performing above the 5YA, 15.2% of the cultivated area was fluctuating around the 5YA, and a significant 73% of the cultivated area was below the 5YA. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map indicates that the current crop conditions are near average, with the predominant VCIx values falling between 0.50 and 1. This suggests that, despite the challenges posed by lower biomass levels, the overall health of the crops remains relatively stable within the expected range. This stability may be attributed to the fact that virtually all crop production in Egypt is irrigated. This finding aligns with the national VCIx value of 0.68, indicating a consistent trend across the country. Additionally, the CALF is consistent with the 5YA, reflecting stable conditions in crop productivity. The Cropping Intensity (CI) estimate reached 175%, marking a 13% increase compared to the 5YA. This suggests a combination of single and double cropping practices. The Crop Production Index (CPI) stands at 0.93. However, the combination of all parameters indicates that crop conditions were close to normal.
Regional Analysis
Based on crop planting systems, climate zones, and topographical conditions, Egypt can be divided into three agroecological zones (AEZs), two of which are suitable for crop cultivation. These are the Nile Delta and the southern coast of the Mediterranean (area identified as 60 in the crop condition clusters map) and the Nile Valley (61).
The Nile Delta and the southern coast of the Mediterranean (zone 60): the average rainfall was at the 15YA, while the temperature was 0.9°C higher than the 15YA. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were below the 15YA, declining by 1% and 6% respectively. Overall, the NDVI development graph mirrored the nationwide NDVI profile. The CALF remained consistent with the 5YA, and the VCIx was recorded at 0.70. The CI was estimated at 179%, representing a 15% increase over the 5YA, indicating a mix of single and double cropping practices. However, the CPI stood at 0.93.
The Nile Valley (zone 61): the average rainfall was at the 15YA, while temperatures were 0.6°C above the 15YA. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were below the 15YA, with declines of 1% and 61% respectively. The NDVI development graph overall aligned with the national NDVI profile. The CALF was 1% below the 5YA, and the VCIx was recorded at 0.76. The CI was estimated at 170%, reflecting a 12% increase over the 5YA and indicating a combination of single and double cropping practices. However, the CPI was at 0.93, indicating a below-normal situation for crop production. Regionally, although CI was higher in both regions, the CPI remained below average.
Figure 3.14 Egypt’s crop condition, July - October 2024
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Nile Delta (left) and Nile Valley (right))
(g) Time series profile of rainfall (h) Time series profile of temperature
Table 3.19 Egypt’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, July - October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (°C) | Departure from 15YA (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | |
Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip | 0 | -94 | 26.6 | 0.9 | 1374 | -1 | 450 | -6 |
Nile Valley | 0 | -99 | 28.5 | 0.6 | 1416 | -1 | 96 | -61 |
Table 3.20 Egypt’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA, July - October 2024
Region | CALF | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current | Current | |
Nile Delta and Mediterranean coastal strip | 65 | 0 | 179 | 15 | 0.70 | 0.93 |
Nile Valley | 70 | -1 | 170 | 12 | 0.76 | 0.93 |