Bulletin

wall bulletin
EthiopiaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: MH18174088459,AsfawKK,tadesse,Melkamu | Edit: lirui

Ethiopia's crop condition, July - October 2024

Overall crop condiction:

Normal


Key Messages:

  • Moderate Vegetation Health Nationally: NDVI data indicates moderate vegetation density across Ethiopia, with some regions showing healthier conditions than the five-year average.

  • Rainfall Concerns: There is a slight decrease in rainfall from the fifteen-year average, potentially impacting water availability and crop growth.

  • Favorable Temperature Trends: The temperature profile is stable and moderate, generally supporting crop development, although there is a slight upward trend as the season progresses.

  • Regional Variability: Conditions vary significantly across Ethiopia’s diverse agro-ecological zones, with some areas experiencing stress due to lower rainfall and higher temperatures, while others benefit from irrigation and perennial crops.

  • Positive Agro-indicators: High values of VCIx, VHI, and VHIn suggest generally favorable conditions for crop health, with an increase in cropping intensity and efficient land use indicated by high CALF values.

  • Overall prospects for the main rainy season crop production are promising.


Advisory/Recommendations

  • Given that the overall prospects for the main rainy season crop production are promising, it is advisable to continue regular remote sensing monitoring to quickly identify any changes in crop conditions.

  • Closely monitor the regions that have experienced significant precipitation deficits to assess the need for any intervention that could mitigate the impact on crop growth.

  • Raise farmers’ awareness to monitor their fields regularly and take control measures when necessary.


This monitoring period from July 2024 to October 2024 covers the planting season of the Meher (main rainy season) crops.  The main crops are maize, wheat, teff, and sorghum. On a national scale, cumulative rainfall decreased by 6% compared to the 15-year average (15YA). This consistent deficit across these months suggests a drier season compared to the historical norm. The temperature for the period from July to October in 2024 exhibits minor fluctuations around the 15-year average with a rise of 0.5°C compared to the 15YA, while photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) showed a small change (-4%). The NDVI curve was near average levels (5-year average).  


The current Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) reached 0.97. The Crop Production Index (CPI) stood at 1.02, which is higher than last year's value of 0.95. Estimated biomass (BIOMSS) was 1% higher than the 15-year average. Rainfall starting in July to August was close to average which helped improve the NDVI curve to reach close to average level but in September and October it was declining but still in some areas of the regions the rain may not be required for crops at maturing stages. The NDVI data suggests moderate vegetation density, with some regions showing positive departures from the five-year average, indicating healthier vegetation conditions. However, the rainfall profile indicates a slight decrease from the fifteen-year average, which could have implications for water availability and crop growth.


The spatial distribution map of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for a region, likely representing different crop conditions across the area. The NDVI values are indicated pattern, with higher percentages (e.g., 42.2%, 24.3%) corresponding to areas with healthier, more vigorous vegetation, while lower percentages ( 9.5%, 10.1% and 13.9) indicate less healthy or stressed vegetation. 

Regional analysis

This regional analysis centres on five key cereal production areas: the Central-northern maize-teff highlands (63), Great Rift region (65), South-eastern Mendebo highlands (71), South-western coffee-Enset highlands (73), and Western mixed maize zone (74). Cumulative rainfall in AEZ 63, AEZ 73 and AEZ 74 exhibited below average compared to 15YA (-10, -8 and -7 %) respectively. Biomass levels followed a comparable pattern with the rainfall compared to the 15YA (BIOMSS -1% ) for both AEZ 63 and 74. CPI values for these region (AEZ 63= 1.03, AEZ 65 = 1, AEZ 71 = 0.98, AEZ, and 73= 0.98) show that crop production situation is normal and a better crop production situation. Cropped arable land fraction remained relatively stable.


Rainfall was notably lower at -10% compared to the 15YA. In contrast, the Great Rift region (65) experienced above-average rainfall, recording a 20% increase. Biomass levels in (63) were estimated at -1% compared to the 15YA, while in (65), biomass showed an increase of 8%. Cropped arable land fraction and cropping intensity remained mostly unchanged across all regions except that AEZ 65 increased by 17%. The NDVI imagery comparison to the 5-Year Average (5YA) profiles across Ethiopia can be classified basically  three categories  as: close to normal , above normal, and below normal. 63 central maize teff highland ,65 great rift region  and 74 western mixed maize are close normal  while 73 south west coffee- enset highland and 71 south east mandebo are above and below normal respectively.


In summary, Ethiopia's agricultural landscape from July to October 2024 was characterized by regional disparities. While some areas like the great riftvalley region and northern arid areas   maintained normal crop conditions, most regions show signs of stress due to less rainfall and higher temperatures. The Semi-arid pastoral areas are with good condition for livestock production, whereas the North western semi arid lowlands, Central northern maize-teff highlands, south western coffee-enset highlands and Western mixed Maize zone  shows below normal rainfall. Overall, the country's agricultural prospects for the Meher season crops were influenced by a combination of decreased rainfall, slightly higher temperatures, and increased radiation, with NDVI values and VCI indicating the health and potential productivity of the vegetation.



(a) Phenology of major crops



(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles(g) Temperature profiles
(h) National CPI time series graph
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:South-western coffee-enset highlands,right:South-eastern Mendebo highlands)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:western maize mixed,right: Great Rift region.


Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-teff highlands)




Table 3.1 Ethiopia's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

Central-northern maize-teff highlands

862

-10

17.7

0.7

1182

-4

935

-1

Eastern arid area









Great Rift region

416

20

18.7

0.5

1192

-4

758

8

Northern Arid area

367

187

29.1

-0.4

1296

-4

890

24

North-western cereal-root-sesame lowlands

934

-14

19.7

-0.3

1237

-4

1200

-4

North-western sesame irrigated lowlands

974

-11

23.2

0.1

1160

2

1360

-7

North-western semi-arid lowlands

835

-17

23.2

-0.4

1201

-8

1250

0

South-eastern mixed maize zone

459

23

19.2

1.0

1176

-1

883

10

South-eastern Mendebo highlands

561

18

15.5

0.8

1070

-5

808

4

Semi-arid pastoral areas

228

36

24.7

1.5

1323

-2

758

14

South-western coffee-enset highlands

845

-8

17.4

0.4

1064

-2

1056

5

Western mixed maize zone

1243

-7

19.8

0.2

1073

-2

1192

-1

Table 3.2 Ethiopia's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

CI

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current

Central-northern maize-teff highlands

100

1

131

9.72

0.98

1.03

Eastern arid area






0.00

Great Rift region

100

1

140

16.67

0.93

1.00

Northern Arid area


-100




0.00

North-western cereal-root-sesame lowlands

100

0

110

5.77

0.92

0.97

North-western sesame irrigated lowlands

100

2

100

-0.60

0.95

0.00

North-western semi-arid lowlands

100

0

100

-0.20

0.97

1.00

South-eastern mixed maize zone

100

3

128

6.84

0.95

1.00

South-eastern Mendebo highlands

100

0

156

10.64

0.94

0.98

Semi-arid pastoral areas

91

19

125

7.57

0.99

1.20

South-western coffee-enset highlands

100

0

152

8.73

0.95

0.98

Western mixed maize zone

100

0

122


0.97

1.00