During the monitoring period, the dry season maize and secondary rice were planted in June and July, and their harvest began in October. 

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that radiation was below average (RADPAR -1%), temperature and rainfall (TEMP +0.4°C, RAIN +1%) were higher than the 15YA. Despite these fluctuations, there was no significant impact on potential biomass (BIOMSS 0%). 

According to the national NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average during the reporting period. NDVI clusters and profiles indicated that crop conditions in 91% of arable land was close to average, which was situated in Pulau Kalimantan, Java, Sumatra, and Palembang. About 9% of arable land, mainly distributed in New Guinea and Aru, was below average in late August and late September but returned to normal in October.

The area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.92. 

The Cropping Intensity (CI) in this region is 139, a 4-point increase compared to  the 5YA. With a Crop Production Index (CPI) of 0.98, the country's crop production conditions are estimated to be close to the average. In conclusion, the overall crop conditions  are considered normal.

Regional analysis 

CropWatch focuses on four agro-ecological zones, namely Sumatra (92), Java (90), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91), and west Papua (93), among which the former three are the most relevant for crop cultivation. Java is the main agricultural region in this country. The numbers of the zones correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps. 

In Java, radiation and temperature were above average (RADPAR +1%, TEMP +0.5℃). However, precipitation was substantially below the 15YA (RAIN -28%), resulting in a slight decline in potential biomass production (BIOMSS -3%). As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average before September, but recovered to the 5YA in October. The strong rainfall deficit and steady decline of the NDVI development curve below the long-term average indicate below average crop conditions. The Cropping Intensity (CI) for this region was 127, which was 3 points lower than the value from the 5YA, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) in Java was 0.99. The crop production can be assessed as close to average. 

In the Kalimantan and Sulawesi region, radiation was below the average (RADPAR -1%), but precipitation and temperature were above the average (RAIN +1%, TEMP +0.4°C). Favorable weather conditions contributed to a 2% increase in potential biomass production (BIOMSS +2%). The NDVI development graphs indicate that crop conditions were close to the 5YA before August and exceeded the 5YA in September and October . Cropping intensity (CI -3%) was below the 5YA, and the Crop Production Index (CPI) in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was 0.98. Overall, the crop conditions and the crop production situation in Kalimantan were similar to those in previous years.

In Sumatra, radiation was close to average (RADPAR 0%), and temperature was higher than average (TEMP +0.6°C), while precipitation was below the average (RAIN -2%). Rainy conditions led to the reduction of the potential biomass production (BIOMSS -2%). The NDVI development graph reveals that crop conditions were below average before mid-September. However, rising temperatures in October resulted in conditions surpassing the 5YA. Cropping intensity was below the 5YA (CI -6%), and the Crop Production Index (CPI) in Sumatra was 0.97. In summary, Crop conditions in Sumatra were expected to be favorable. 

Figure 3.20 Indonesia's crop conditions, July 2024 – October 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Rainfall profile

 (d) Temperature pofiles

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA             (g) NDVI departure profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Kalimantan_Sulawesi)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.1 Indonesia's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Indonesia's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024