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Authors: zhaoxf | Edit: lirui
By the end of August, the harvest of irrigated potatoes and rice, which are summer crops, was reaching its completion. The sowing of winter crops like wheat and barley commenced in September. Compared to the average of the last 15 years, national-scale cumulative precipitation was 19% lower (ΔRAIN, -19%), temperature was 0.5°C higher (ΔTEMP, +0.5°C), radiation was 1% lower (ΔRADPAR, -1%). Combination of water, light, and temperatures resulted in a 4% reduction of potential cumulative biomass (ΔBIOMSS, -4%). According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the crop conditions in Iran were close to average in July and declined thereafter to slightly below the previous year's and 5-year average. On the national scale, CALF in Iran was 13%, which was 16% higher than the 5-year average. Cropping intensity (CI) in the whole year was 107%, 1% below the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.67 and areas above 0.8 were predominantly in the northern regions, especially the north-west of the country. The national average Crop Production Index (CPI) was trending upward since 2021, but was still only 0.95 in 2024, indicating that crop production was still slightly below average.
The NDVI spatial patterns show that from July to October, 3.6% of arable crops (labeled blue) increased from slightly above average in July to significantly above average in October, mainly in the north and scattered areas in the northwest and northeast. The growth of 7.1% of arable crops (labeled light green) decreased from significantly above average in July to below average in October, mainly in the northwestern region of Iran. 47.1% of the arable crops (labeled red) grew slightly above average throughout the monitoring period. but slightly below average at the end of the monitoring period. They were distributed throughout the country. 35.5% of the arable crops (labeled orange) were slightly below average throughout the monitoring period and were also widely distributed throughout the country. The remaining 6.6% of arable crops (labeled dark green) were mainly distributed in the east and in scattered areas in the north, and their growth was significantly below average throughout the monitoring period. VCIx maps showed areas above 0.8 mainly located in the North, Northwest and Southwest and areas below 0.5 mainly distributed in the West, Northeast and scattered areas in the South. Crop production during this period depended on irrigation, which resulted in fair conditions.
However, the drought conditions, which lasted until mid October, will adversely affect the sowing and establishment of winter wheat, especially in the rain-fed areas of the north-west.
Regional Analysis
Based on farming system, climate, and topographic conditions, Iran can be subdivided into three regions, two of which are the main areas for crop production, namely the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north (104) and the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area (103).
In the semi-arid to the subtropical hilly region in the west and the north, the cumulative precipitation during the monitoring period was 54 mm, 21% below average. Temperature was 0.3℃ above average and photosynthetically active radiation was slightly below the 15YA (-1%). The potential biomass was 6% lower than average. Crop conditions were slightly below the 5-year average. The proportion of cultivated land was 15%, which was 18% higher than the 5YA. CI was 107%, slightly below average by 1%. VCIx for this region was 0.75 and CPI was 0.99, indicating fair crop prospects.
In the coastal lowland in the arid red sea plain area, the temperature was 0.6℃ above average. The accumulated precipitation was 45% above average, but only 24 mm in this period. The photosynthetically active radiation was 2% below average. The potential biomass was 4% lower than the 15-year average. During the monitoring period, CALF was 9% and CI was 112%, both close to the 5YA. The NDVI-based crop condition graph expressed slightly below-average crop conditions, the value of VCIx was only 0.36. CPI was 0.82, indicating unfavorable crop prospects despite of irrigation.
Iran's crop condition, July - October 2024
Table 3.1 Iran's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current | Departure | Current | Departure | Current | Departure | Current | Departure | |
Central and Eastern wasteland region | 11 | -20 | 24.7 | 1.3 | 1476 | -2 | 465 | 5 |
Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains | 24 | 45 | 33.7 | 0.6 | 1436 | -2 | 424 | -4 |
Semi-arid to sub-tropical western and northern hills | 54 | -21 | 21.2 | 0.3 | 1400 | -1 | 440 | -6 |
Table 3.2 Iran's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024
Region | CALF | CI | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current | Current | |
Central and Eastern wasteland region | 1 | -48 | 103 | -3 | 0.27 | 0.48 |
Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains | 9 | 0 | 112 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.82 |
Semi-arid to sub-tropical western and northern hills | 15 | 18 | 107 | -1 | 0.75 | 0.99 |