Spring wheat was harvested in most of the country during this monitoring period in Kazakhstan. The main growth period lasts from June to August. Harvest started in late August. Crop production in Kazakhstan is mostly rainfed, as only 3% of the cropland is under irrigation.

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated precipitation increased significantly by 51%,  temperature was below average by 0.6°C, while the radiation was below average by 5%. During the reporting period, the dekadal precipitation levels were mostly above the average, exceeding the 15-year maximum in early July and mid-July. They were below the 15-year average in mid-September, late September and early October. The dekadal temperatures were mostly close to the 15-year average from July to October. The abundant rainfall and warmer temperature resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 17%.

The CropWatch agronomic indicators also showed favorable crop growth and productions. The Crop Production Index (CPI) for Kazakhstan was 1.49, indicating that the overall growth condition of crops was quite good compared to the average of the past 5 years. Throughout the monitoring period, the average maximum VCI value reached 1.06, with the largest proportion of areas with VCIx greater than 0.8 concentrated mainly in the northern region of Kazakhstan. The CALF increased by 30% and cropping intensity value was close to avearge, indicating of higher land utilizaiton. As shown in the crop condition development graph，the NDVI values at the national level in July, August, and September were above the five-year maximum value. Starting from early October, they began to decrease steadily. These observations were confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: 85.2% of the cropland was above the five-year average from July to September, mainly concentrated in the northern region; 14.8% of the cropland was below the five-year average from July to October, mainly distributed in scattered areas of the eastern, central, and northwest regions.

Overall, the agroclimatic and agronomic conditions during the monitoring period were favorable. The production of spring wheat is forecasted to be very good.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111), and the South region (110).

In the Northern region, the accumulated precipitation increased significantly by 56%, but the temperature was below the average by  0.8°C, while radiation was below the average level by 6%. The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 21%.  During the monitoring period, the NDVI values exceeded the five-year maximum from early July to mid-September. CALF value in the region is 94%, which is 37% higher compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI is 1.10, and the CPI is 1.55, indicating hihgly favorable crop growth and production.

In the Eastern plateau and southeastern region, the significant increase of accumulated precipitation resulted in above average potential biomass by 8%. The NDVI values were higher than the five-year maximum by the mid of July and late July, while starting to gradually decrease below the five-year average in early October. CALF value in the region is 85% with an increase of 10% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI is 0.96, and the CPI is 1.33, indicating favorable crop growth and crop productions.

In the South region, the accumulated precipitation was far above the average by 100%, and radiation was below the average by 6%. The combined effect of agroclimatic indicators has resulted in potential biomass being 13% higher than average. The weather conditions in the region were favorable during the monitoring period. During the monitoring period, NDVI values were above the five-year average. The CALF value is 49%, with a decrease of 3% compared to the five-year average. The maximum VCI is 0.75, and the current CPI is 1.06, indicating fair crop growth and crop yield.

Figure 3.1 Kazakhstan’s crop condition, July - October 2024

(a)Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index

(e) Temperature Index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (g) NDVI profiles

(h)CPI

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and southeastern region)

Table 3.1 Kazakhstan's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Kazakhstan's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024