The reporting period from July to October primarily encompasses the harvest of irrigated maize in July. During this time, no cereal crops are cultivated, as it is a slack season. Following this monitoring interval, preparations will begin for the sowing of winter wheat in November. The cumulative rainfall during this period reached 69 mm, which is 12% below the 15-year average (15YA). The rainfall profile indicates that levels did not exceed 20 mm, with the exception of late October, when a notable increase was observed. The average temperature was 23.1°C, which is 0.2°C above the 15YA. The temperature profile indicates that temperatures fluctuated around the average throughout the period. Both RADPAR and BIOMSS were consistent with the 15YA, indicating stable conditions in terms of radiation and biomass production. The nationwide NDVI profile during the reporting period fell below the 5YA. Spatial analysis of the NDVI reveals that only 5.2% of the cultivated area performed above the 5YA, while 36.2% fluctuated around the 5YA. The remaining percentage of cultivated land (58.6%) was below the 5YA, highlighting a concerning trend in vegetation health. The Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map indicates that the conditions of the crops was below average. VCIx values fell to 0.56. Additionally, the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 9% lower than the 5-year average (5YA), further indicating challenges in agricultural productivity across the country. The Cropping Intensity (CI) estimate reached 102%, aligning with the 15YA, which suggests a mix of single and double cropping practices. The Crop Production Index (CPI) stands at 1.14. However, most of the cropland was fallow.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agroecological zones (AEZs) relevant to crop production in Morocco: the Sub-humid northern highlands (zone 125), the Warm semiarid zone (zone 126), and the Warm sub-humid zone (zone 127).

Rainfall was below the 15YA by 17%, 23%, and 7% in the three zones, in that order. In terms of temperature, zone 125 experienced an increase of 0.1°C, zone 126 saw a rise of 0.3°C, while zone 127 remained consistent with 15YA. RADPAR was consistent with 15YA in the first zone. In the second zone, it was above 15YA by 1%, while in the third zone, it fell below the 15YA by 1%. BIOMSS was below 15YA in the first zone by 3% and in the second zone by 1%. In the third zone, it remained consistent with 15YA. The NDVI development graph indicates that crop conditions were below average in all three zones, reflecting the overall trend observed in the nationwide NDVI profile. The CALF was below the 5YA by 8%, 44%, and 2% in the three zones, in that order (125, 126, and 127). The VCIx values were 0.60 for zone 125, 0.45 for zone 126, and 0.70 for zone 127, indicating varying conditions of vegetation health across the zones. The CI estimates were 101%, 100%, and 103% for the three zones, respectively, indicating that all regions were primarily dominated by single cropping during the investigation period. The CP values for the three zones were 1.12, 0.74, and 1.18, respectively.

Figure 3.27 Morocco’s crop condition, July - October 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands) and (g) Warm semiarid zones)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(i) Time series profile of rainfall (j)Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.1 Morocco's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Morocco's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024