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Authors: xujm | Edit: lirui
During this reporting period, sowing of maize and wheat started since September. The main rice was growing during July to September. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions were below average.
According to the agroclimatic indicators, RAIN increased by 2% compared to the 15YA, TEMP was also higher (+0.6ºC), RADPAR was up by 3%. 97% of cropland was utilized, which was slighter lower than the 5YA by 1%. BIOMSS increased by 1%. NDVI values were on average before October, and dropped to below-average after that. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.92. The CPI value was 0.98, which generally represents an average agricultural production situation for this period.
As shown by the NDVI clusters map and profiles, the crop conditions across the country were heterogeneous. Crops in the main paddy producing region have been negatively affected by flooding from heavy rains and Typhoon Yagi in September. An estimated 2.3 million hectares of cropland were affected. This caused below average conditions for 31.6% of the cropland, distributed mainly around the central plain and some clustered areas across the whole country. The remaining 69.4% of the cropland showed below-average with fluctuating crop conditions for the whole period. The maximum VCI maps showed similar distribution as the NDVI clusters map. It seems that not only the weather, but the internal conflict also had a negative impact on crop production, such as in the north. Crop conditions are assessed as below average.
Regional analysis
Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain (132), the Delta and Southern Coast regions (133) and the Hills (134).
The Central Plain had a rainfall deficit (RAIN -2%), while TEMP (+0.7ºC) and RADPAR (4%) were higher as compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was on average. CALF showed that 98% of the cropland was utilized. The NDVI values were below average in July. The VCIx was 0.95. The CPI was 1.03. Crop conditions for this region were below average.
The Delta and Southern Coast region had an above-average rainfall (RAIN +5%). RADPAR was 2% above average, TEMP was 0.5ºC above average. BIOMSS was up by 2%. The 92% of cropland was utilized. The NDVI values were fluctuate around the 5YA and generally below average. VCIx was 0.86. The CPI was 0.89. Crop conditions in this region were below average.
The Hills region also had above-average rainfall (RAIN 3%). RADPAR was 2% higher than average, TEMP increased by 0.6ºC. BIOMSS (1%) was slighter higher than the 15YA. 98% of cropland was utilized. NDVI values were above average until August and subsequently dropped below average. The VCIx was 0.93. The CPI was 0.95. Crop conditions are assessed as below average.
Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, July – October 2024
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall Profile
(g) Temperature Profile
(h) CPI time series chart
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central plain region(left) and Hills region(right))
(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region
Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July – October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMASS | ||||
current (mm) | Departure from 15YA (%) | current (°C) | Departure from 15YA (°C) | current (MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | current (gDM/m2) | Departure from 15YA (%) | |
Central plain | 1060 | -2 | 25.0 | 0.7 | 1120 | 4 | 1410 | 0 |
Delta and southern-coast | 2054 | 5 | 26.2 | 0.5 | 1111 | 2 | 1626 | 2 |
Hills region | 1818 | 3 | 23.1 | 0.6 | 1005 | 2 | 1428 | 1 |
Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July – October 2024
Region | CALF | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current (%) | Departure from 5YA (%) | Current | Current | |
Central plain | 98 | 1 | 146 | 8 | 0.95 | 1.03 |
Delta and southern-coast | 92 | -3 | 171 | 1 | 0.86 | 0.89 |
Hills region | 98 | 0 | 169 | 11 | 0.93 | 0.95 |