Authors. Babamaaji Rakiya, Akinola Jumoke, Awe-peter Helen, Ajih Simon, Umar Sani

This report provides an overview of crop conditions for maize [North/main], second-season maize, maize [South/main], irrigated rice, and rain-fed rice in Nigeria from July to October 2024. It covers the rainy season, which is the main period for crop production. Agroclimatic indicators showed that rainfall (ΔRAIN -23%), radiation (ΔRADPAR -2%), and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -8%) were below the 15-year average except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.4°C), which was above average.

According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were favorable and closely aligned with the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period but fell below average in July and middle of September. This maybe due to the late onset of rain across the country as forecasted by the Nigeria Meteorological Agency(NiMet). The NDVI departure clustering map shows that 47.9% of cropped land distributed across the Sahel and Sudan savanna AEZs has values slightly above average from July to October, while the freshwater zone has 108% of cro.pped area above average. The cropped arable land fraction (ΔCALF 3%) was above the 5-year average with favorable maximum VCI value of 0.93, and crop intensity departure was -4%. The Crop Production Index (CPI) is 1.03, which  is above normal; this indicates a slightly above average crop production situation for the monitoring period.

Regional Analysis

There are nine sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) in Nigeria based on cropping   systems, climate, and topography: Sahel Savannah (152), Sudan Savannah (153), Guinea   Savannah (147), Derived Savannah (145), Jos Plateau (148), Montane Forest (151), Lowland  Rainforest (149), Freshwater Swamp Forest (146), and Mangrove Forest (150). The Sahel     Savanah is located in the country's northeast; the Sudan Savanah covers the entire Northern area. The Guinea savannah is the largest, stretching from the Sudan Savanah to the Derived Savanah and spanning much of the country's central region. The Freshwater swamp forest, Montane Forest and Mangrove Forest are situated in the southern part of the country. The Montane and Mangrove Forest have few agricultural activities this reporting period thus, indicating crop conditions with minimal influence and hence will not be discussed.

The Derived Savannah zone  experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -23%) and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -6%) that were below the 15-year average except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.4°C) which was above average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were above the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period, except for September. The crop conditions reached the 5-year maximum level and above after July. The maximum VCI was 0.92, and the crop production index (CPI) of 0.97 indicated that the crop production was close to normal.

The Freshwater Swamp Forest zone  experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -27%), radiation (ΔRADPAR -4%,  and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -4%) that were below the 15-year average except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.3°C), which was above average, and an increase in CALF by 1%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were above the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period. The crop conditions reached the 5-year maximum for all the monitoring periods except August. With a maximum VCI of 0.89, the crop production index (CPI) has declined consistently over the last five years to 0.93 indicating below normal crop production status in the zone. This may be due to environmental degradation in the zone.

The Guinea Savannah Zone experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -19%) and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -9%) that were below the 15-year average, except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.5°C), which was above average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions closely aligned with the 5-year average for most of the study period but fell below average in July and August. The maximum VCI was 0.9,2 with the crop production index (CPI) of 0.99 indicating below normal crop production in the zone.

The Jos Plateau Zone experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -27%), radiation (ΔRADPAR -1%), and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -11%) below the 15-year average except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.5°C), which was above average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions closely aligned with the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period except early September,  with maximum VCI of 0.92 and a crop production index (CPI) of 0.99, indicating a normal crop production situation.

The Low Land Rainforest Zone experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -24%), radiation (ΔRADPAR -1%), and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -5%) below the 15-year average except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.3°C), which was above average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions aligned closely with the 5-year average for most of the monitoring period except for early September. The maximum VCI was 0.89 with a crop production index (CPI) of 0.96 indicating normal crop production for the zone.

The Sahel Savannah Zone experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -23%), radiation (ΔRADPAR -6%), and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -3%) that were below the 15-year average. With no change in temperature, there was a 16% increase in CALF over average. According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were above the 5-year average and the 5-year maximum for most of the monitoring period with maximum VCIx of 0.98 and crop production index (CPI) of 1.24, the zone experienced a favorable crop production situation.

The Sudan Savannah Zone experienced rainfall (ΔRAIN -28%), radiation (ΔRADPAR -5%) and biomass (ΔBIOMSS -10%) that were below the 15-year average except for temperature (ΔTEMP 0.3°C). CALF increased by 2%. The NDVI development graph showed that crop conditions in the zone were initially below average, but then improved to average conditions in August and subsequently stayed above. The maximum VCI was 0.95 and the crop production index (CPI) was 1.04, indicating that the crop production in this zone was  slightly above normal.

Figures 3.37 Nigeria's crop condition, July - October 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) CPI time series chart

(g) Rainfall profiles                                                                                       (h) Temperature Profiles

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Derived Savannah, Right: Freshwater swamp Forest)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Guinea Savannah, Right: Jos Plateau)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Left: Lowland Rainforest, Right: Sahel Savannah)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sudan Savannah)

Table 3.1 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Nigeria's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024