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Authors: Changsheng | Edit: lirui
The reporting period covers the production period for the main crops, maize, rice and cotton, which were harvested in October. Concurrently, the sowing of winter barley and wheat began in the same month. The agroclimatic and agronomic indicators suggest rather favorable crop conditions between July and October.
RAIN was above average (+64%) and TEMP(+0.8℃)was higher than average, while RADPAR(-4%) was lower. This resulted in an increase in estimated BIOMSS (+30%). Heavy monsoon rains from July to August caused flooding conditions in many areas, mainly in the provinces of southern Punjab, Northern highland, Sindh, and along the Lower Indus River. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) sharply increased by 11% compared to the previous five years average.
As shown by the nationwide NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below average before early August, subsequently reached average levels and exceeded the maximum. Further, the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles indicate that 12.7% of the cropped areas presented continuously below-average conditions during the reporting period, mostly distributed in southern Punjab and along the Lower Indus River. About 36.4% of cropland, distributed in three main production areas, presented below-average conditions in early August mainly due to heavy rainfall and floods. The floods had a impact on crop growth in Sindh and Northern highland, which had a maximum VCI lower than 0.5. At the annual scale, together with higher CALF, cropping intensity increased by 10%. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Pakistan is 1.06, indicating an above average agricultural production situation. All in all, crop production estimates for the summer crops are above average.
Regional analysis
For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based essentially on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Lower Indus river basin(150), the Northern highlands(151), and the Northern Punjab(152) region.
RAIN recorded significantly above-average values (+185%), while TEMP(-0.6℃)and RADPAR(-7%)were below average in the Lower Indus River basin(150). The estimated BIOMSS increased 42% compared to the average. NDVI was initially below average in July but later recovered to average, even exceeding the maximum in August. Heavy rainfall and flooding in northern Sindh and along the Lower Indus Basin caused consistently below-average crop conditions in July. However, CALF reached 71%, which was higher than the average by 12% and the VCIx was 0.88. With a CPI of 1.06, summer crop production prospects are better than normal.
In the Northern highland(151) region, RAIN increased by 33% and TEMP was above average by 1.4℃, while RADPAR(-7%)was below average. The estimated BIOMSS rose by 11%. NDVI remained below average in July and late August due to flooding but improved to above average or maximum levels in early August and September under favorable conditions. CALF increased by 12% compared to the 5YA, and cropping intensity rose by 8%. The VCIx was 0.94. In short, the CPI has a high level of 1.13 in the current period. The situation for the region is assessed as above average.
As Pakistan’s primary agricultural region, Northern Punjab(152) experienced a sharp increase in RAIN (+130%), while TEMP(-0.5℃) and RADPAR(-2%) were slightly below average. The resulting BIOMSS was above average by 32%. The NDVI profile presented below average conditions during late July and early September due to abundant monsoon rains. At other times, the crop conditions were close to the average or above maximum. In addition, the CALF stood at 87%, 4% higher than the 5YA, together with cropping intensity increased by 11%. These indicators reflect above-average total cultivated crop area. The CPI of 1.05 suggests favorable conditions for summer crop production.
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (c) Maximum VCI
(d) Time series precipitation profile (e) Time series temperature profile
(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (g) NDVI profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (left) and Northern Highlands (right)
(i)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Northern Punjab
(j)National CPI time series graph
1 Pakistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July-October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure (%) | Current (℃) | Departure (℃) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure (%) | |
Lower Indus river basin | 692 | 185 | 31.9 | -0.6 | 1212 | -7 | 1020 | 42 |
Northern highland | 508 | 33 | 22.8 | 1.4 | 1321 | -3 | 833 | 11 |
Northern Punjab | 971 | 130 | 30.0 | -0.5 | 1208 | -4 | 1167 | 32 |
2 Pakistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July-October 2024
Region | Cropped arable land fraction | CI | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current (%) | Departure (%) | Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current | Current | |
Lower Indus river basin | 71 | 12 | 165 | 11 | 0.88 | 1.06 |
Northern highlands | 70 | 12 | 139 | 8 | 0.94 | 1.13 |
Northern Punjab | 87 | 4 | 187 | 11 | 0.94 | 1.05 |