This monitoring period coincides with the rainy season in the Philippines. It had started about one month later than usual, by around mid May. During this monitoring period, the harvest of the main season maize began in July, followed by the main season rice harvest starting in September. The second season rice and second season maize were planted at the end of this period. Before August, both rainfall and temperature remained normal. Then the country experienced persistently higher-than-average temperatures and three distinct increases in cumulative rainfall. The normal levels of rainfall and temperature were favorable for crop growth, restoring crop condition to normal levels by early August. However, subsequent intense rainfall events negatively impact maize and rice harvesting, resulting in a decline in crop NDVI departure. The three distinct increase in ten-day cumulative rainfall were mainly brought by several typhoons, which made landfall in Philippines in late Ausust, mid-Spetember and late October, respectively. Nonetheless, this negative effect was limited according to the clustering results of NDVI departures, and crop condition was slightly below the average by the end of the monitoring period. Clustering results of NDVI departure also indicated that approximately 89.5% of cultivated land (orange, light green, and dark green) experienced a recovery followed by a slight decline in crop NDVI. These lands maintained a normal crop condition and are distributed throughout the country. Only about 10.5% of cultivated land (blue) showed fluctuations in NDVI due to cloud and rain cover, though the overall trend remained similar to the other cropland. Compared to the average, rainfall (RAIN) was slightly higher by 9%, temperature (TEMP) was higher by 0.4°C, radiation (RADPAR) was lower by 4%, and potential biomass (BIOMASS) remained normal. Despite a slight decline in crop condition, the cropping intensity (CI) increased by 5%, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was near 100%. The country-level production index (CPI) stood at 1, suggesting that crop production remained normal.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands, agro-ecological zone 158), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros, agro-ecological zone 159), and the Lowlands region (northern islands, agro-ecological zone 160). The CALF values for each zone are relatively stable, almost reaching 100%.

In the Forest region, rainfall (RAIN) increased by 5%, temperature (TEMP) increased by 0.5°C, radiation (RADPAR) was lower by about 2%, and potential biomass (BIOMASS) remained normal. At the beginning of the period, crops in this region recovered to normal levels with the support of favorable rainfall, and subsequently remained at normal. The VCIx for the region was 0.95, and the CPI was 0.99. The CI increased by about 5%, with an overall normal crop production.

For the Hilly region, rainfall (RAIN) was slightly higher by about 5%, while the temperature (TEMP) remained normal, radiation (RADPAR) was lower by 4%, and potential biomass (BIOMASS) was lower by about 1%. During the early stage, above-average rainfall promoted crop recovery, and thereafter, it remained at normal levels. Although the VCIx for the region was 0.95 and the CPI was 1, the CI increased significantly by 19%, suggesting that crop production is expected to rise.

In the Lowlands region, rainfall (RAIN) increased by 13%, radiation (RADPAR) decreased by 5%, temperature (TEMP) was higher by 0.3°C, and potential biomass (BIOMASS) was higher by 1%. Crop NDVI in this region reached the highest level in nearly five years in August, coinciding with a period between two intense rainfall events. Afterward, crop NDVI remained slightly below the average level. The VCIx for the region was 0.95, and the CPI was 1. The CI was slightly higher by 2%, indicating that crop production is expected to remain normal.

(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI	(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA	(e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles	(g) Temperature profiles
(h) National CPI time series graph
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Northern lowlands of Mindanao to western Visayas,right:Negros and central Visayas Islands)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Forest islands,right:)

Table 3.1 Philippines's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Table 3.2 Philippines's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024