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Authors: zhaoxf | Edit: lirui
The monitoring period covers the harvest of spring and winter wheat in July and August, as well as the main growth period of maize. It was harvested in September and October. High temperatures and limited rainfall in July-August favored the harvesting of winter crops and accelerated the growth of summer crops, leading to an early start of their harvest. Extreme precipitation in the south-west of Poland has caused localized flooding and negatively impacted crop growth in early September. On the national scale, precipitation during the monitoring period was 22% below the average of the last 15 years (ΔRAIN, -22%), while temperature and radiation were 1.8°C and 6% higher (ΔTEMP, +1.8°C; ΔRADPAR, +6%), respectively. The drought and warm weather resulted in a 10% lower biomass (ΔBIOMSS, -10%). Furthermore, CALF was up to 100% and VCIx was 0.77. Areas below 0.8 are mainly located in the east-central and south-western parts of Poland. CI was 124%, 9% lower than the average of the last 5 years. The CPI was only 0.86, indicating that crop conditions were below the average of the last 5 years.
The crop growth curve based on NDVI shows that crop growth was already below average in the previous monitoring period. Affected by drought and high temperature in July-August, NDVI continued to be lower than the average. Although precipitation recovered for the first dekade of August, NDVI remained below average. In addition, heavy flooding in southwest Poland in early September caused further crop damage. By the end of the current monitoring period, NDVI was significantly lower than the previous year and average of 5-year, although that drop was most likely caused by cloud cover in the satellite images or fog. The spatial distribution map of NDVI clustering shows that throughout the whole monitoring period, only 13.2% of the crops (labeled as "light green") was above the 5-year average in July-August, and then dropped below the average, mainly in the western region and scattered areas in the northwest. As much as 86.8% of the remaining cropland (labeled as "red", "orange", "dark green" and "blue", respectively) continued to have below-average crop growth, which was found in almost all areas. The cropland labeled in blue, representing 8.7% of the area, had significantly lower-than-average crop growth throughout the entire monitoring period, mainly located in the northeast and southwest. 20.3% of cultivated land (labeled "red") had significantly lower crop growth in July-August, and then slowly recovered to slightly below average, mainly in the east and southeast. And 21.2% of cultivated land (labeled "dark green") was slightly below average in July-August and then declined to significantly below average, mainly in the north-central and western regions. In the remaining 36.7% of the arable land (labeled "orange") crops were slightly below average throughout the entire monitoring period, mainly located in the eastern part of Poland. The The VCIx map shows that it was below 0.5 in the central and north-eastern regions, as well as in parts of the south-west, and above 0.8, mainly in the western and north-western regions, while the rest of the regions were mainly in the range of 0.5 to 0.8.
Overall, crop growth in Poland was below average and crop yields are below average in most regions, except for parts of the north.
Regional analysis
Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below (shown by Figure (c) Maximum VCI). They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (163, the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (162, Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (161, Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (164) from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders.
Compared to the average of the last 15 years, precipitation in the Northern oats and potatoes area was 23% lower, temperature was 1.9℃ higher, RADPAR was 7% higher, leading to a lower BIOMSS (ΔBIOMSS, -8%). CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.82. Crop growth was close to the previous year and slightly below the 5-year average in July-August and close to the average by the end of August. Thereafter, however, crop growth declined to below 5-year average. VCIx was 0.82 and CPI was 0.91. This area had relativley better crop conditions than the other areas, but they nevertheless stayed below average. The CI for the year was 130%, 1% below the average. Overall, crop production can be expected to be lower than the average of the last five years.
In the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area, rainfall was 20% lower, temperatures were 1.8℃ higher, RADPAR was 7% higher, resulting in a 5% lower BIOMSS. The percentage of cultivated land was 100% and VCIx was 0.78. Crop growth was close to the previous year's level but below the last 5-year average in July, but then declined to the previous year's level as well as the last 5-year average. VCIx was 0.77 and CALF was 100%. CI of this sub-district was 117%, 11% lower than the average, and the annual crop planting was lower than in previous years. CPI was 0.86, indicating below average crop production.
Compared with the average of the last 15 years, in the Central rye and potatoes area, precipitation was 25% lower, temperature was 1.9°C higher, RADPAR was 7% higher. This led to a 11% lower BIOMSS. Crop growth was close to the previous year only at the end of July, the rest of the period was below average and the previous year, and at the end of October, crop growth was significantly lower. CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.76. VCIx in the eastern part of the subregion was predominantly less than 0.8 and in the western part, it was predominantly above 0.8. CI was 120% in this year, 11% lower than the average. CPI was 0.89. Overall, the crop growth and the crop yield were below the average.
In the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, precipitation was 17% lower, temperature was 1.6°C higher, RADPAR was 4% higher, resulting in a 12% lower BIOMSS as compared to the 15YA. Crop growth throughout the monitoring period was significantly lower than in the previous year and the average of the last 5 years. CALF was 100% and VCIx was only 0.76. The western part of the subregion was affected by flooding. It had a VCIx of even less than 0.5. CI of this region was 132%, which was 8% lower than the average. With a CPI of only 0.81, the smallest of the four subregions, this region was most affected by unfavorable weather conditions.
Table 3.1 Poland's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current | Departure | Current | Departure | Current | Departure | Current | Departure | |
Central rye and potatoes area | 212 | -25 | 17.6 | 1.9 | 906 | 7 | 649 | -11 |
Northern oats and potatoes areas | 243 | -23 | 16.7 | 1.9 | 866 | 7 | 703 | -8 |
Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area | 224 | -20 | 17.0 | 1.8 | 879 | 7 | 691 | -5 |
Southern wheat and sugarbeet area | 251 | -17 | 16.6 | 1.6 | 942 | 4 | 654 | -12 |
Table 3.2 Poland's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024
Region | CALF | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current | Current | |
Central rye and potatoes area | 100 | 0 | 120 | -10 | 0.76 | 0.89 |
Northern oats and potatoes areas | 100 | 0 | 130 | -1 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
Northern-central wheat and sugarbeet area | 100 | 0 | 117 | -11 | 0.77 | 0.86 |
Southern wheat and sugarbeet area | 100 | 0 | 132 | -8 | 0.76 | 0.81 |