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RussiaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: qinxl | Edit: lirui

The monitoring period from July to October 2024 covers the main harvest season for both winter and spring crops in Russia, as well as the sowing period for winter crops of the 2024/25 season. Winter crops are typically harvested from late June to late July, while spring crops are harvested from mid-August to late September. Winter crop sowing for the next season begins in September. In Russia, where only 2.7% of cropland is irrigated, precipitation plays a crucial role in agricultural production.

National CropWatch agroclimatic indicators for this period showed mixed conditions. RAIN totaled 256 mm, 8% below the 15YA, while TEMP averaged 14.4°C, 1.1°C above the 15YA. The RADPAR was 880 MJ/m², showing a 4% increase compared to the 15YA. The BIOMSS decreased by 9% compared to the 15YA, reflecting the impact of reduced rainfall despite increased radiation.
Agronomic indicators revealed that the CALF was 93%, representing a 3% decrease from the 5YA. The VCIx reached 0.88, indicating generally favorable vegetation conditions despite the challenges. The CI was 105%, showing a slight decrease of 2% compared to the 5YA. The CPI at 0.98 suggested near-normal production conditions.
The NDVI development curve showed significant temporal variations throughout the monitoring period. Initial values in July were slightly below the five-year average, followed by a stable trend through July-September. The September-October period saw NDVI values significantly below the five-year average, particularly at two observation points in October. However, they may have been caused by cloud coverage or fog, considering that there were no significant anomalies in the rainfall and temperature data.

Spatial patterns revealed distinct regional variations in crop conditions. The VCIx spatial distribution map showed that in the main agricultural areas, the crop conditions gradually deteriorates from north to south. Good conditions were prevalent in Western Siberia (189), Ural and Western Volga Region (178), and Central Russia (169). The worst conditions were concentrated in parts of the Northern Caucasus (174) and South Caucasus (176).

NDVI clustering analysis revealed five distinct patterns of crop development:

  • 27.7% of cropland showed consistently negative NDVI departures throughout the period

  • 13.6% exhibited moderate negative departures with slight improvement in September

  • 34.5% maintained near-average conditions

  • 13.4% demonstrated above-average conditions, particularly in August and September

  • 10.8% showed positive departures before August but below-average from August to October

Overall, the western and Siberian regions generally experienced favorable conditions, supported by adequate to above-average rainfall and moderate temperatures. However, the southern regions, particularly the Northern Caucasus and parts of the Central Black Soil area, faced significant challenges due to severe rainfall deficits and above-average temperatures. For the 2024/25 winter crop season, the sowing conditions were generally challenging due to widespread moisture deficits in key winter wheat regions, particularly in the southern agricultural zones. This situation may affect crop establishment and could influence production potential for the coming season.


Regional Analysis

Russia can be divided into thirteen agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions. This report focuses on nine main agricultural regions.

Central Russia (169)

Central Russia is one of the country's major agricultural regions, growing large areas of winter wheat and other cereal crops. RAIN was 240 mm (-19%), TEMP averaged 15.4°C (+2.3°C), and RADPAR increased by 15%. BIOMSS decreased by 8%. CALF remained at 100% with a VCIx of 0.95, CI of 101% (-6%) and CPI of 1.00, indicating favorable crop conditions despite reduced rainfall. The generally favorable conditions suggest normal crop production potential despite the rainfall deficit.

Central Black Soil Area (170)

The Central Black Soils Area, known for its fertile black soils and favorable climatic conditions, is one of Russia's most important agricultural regions. The region experienced severe drought with RAIN at 96 mm (-59%) and temperatures 2.6°C above average. Despite increased RADPAR (+12%), BIOMSS dropped significantly (-31%). CALF remained at 100%, but VCIx decreased to 0.86 and CI decreased by 10%. CPI of 0.95 indicated slightly below-normal production conditions. The severe precipitation deficit and high temperatures likely impacted both harvesting conditions and winter crop establishment.

Eastern Siberia (171) 

Eastern Siberia has a relatively small cultivated area, with agriculture playing a minor role in the regional economy. It experienced reduced rainfall (413 mm, -17%) with slightly higher temperatures (+0.4°C). RADPAR remained stable while BIOMSS decreased by 4%. CALF was maintained at 100% with strong VCIx (0.92) and CPI (0.97). And CI decreased by 2%. Given this region's minor role in crop production, the slightly unfavorable conditions will have limited impact on national production.

Middle Siberia (172)

Agricultural production in Middle Siberia is limited by climatic conditions, with a small cultivated area. RAIN was 271 mm (-7%) with temperatures 1.4°C above average. RADPAR increased 2%, while BIOMSS decreased 3%. CALF dropped to 95% (-3%) with VCIx at 0.84, CI at 102% (-2%) and CPI at 0.93. The yields of its spring crops  are expected to be slightly below the 5-year average.

Middle Volga (173)

The Middle Volga region is an important agricultural area in Russia, especially for summer crop production. RAIN decreased to 223 mm (-16%) with temperatures 0.6°C above average. RADPAR increased 7% while BIOMSS declined by 11%. CALF improved to 97% (+2%) with VCIx at 0.90 and CPI at 1.03. CI was 103% (-3%). Despite some challenges, crop production is expected to be slightly above average.

Northern Caucasus (174)

The Northern Caucasus region has a significant agricultural production. It mainly grows winter wheat and other cereal crops. It experienced severe drought with RAIN at 107 mm (-46%) and temperatures 1.9°C above average. RADPAR increased 5% while BIOMSS dropped 19%. CALF decreased significantly to 58% (-33%) with low VCIx (0.57) and CPI (0.58). These conditions indicate significantly reduced crop production potential and challenging conditions for winter crop establishment.

South Caucasus (176)

The South Caucasus region has relatively mild climatic conditions, with agricultural production playing an important role in the regional economy. RAIN increased slightly (336 mm, +5%) with temperatures 0.2°C above average. RADPAR decreased 4% and BIOMSS declined 4%. CALF dropped to 64% (-16%) with VCIx at 0.68 and CPI at 0.70. CI was average. The relatively poor indicators suggest below-average crop production outcomes.

Ural and Western Volga Region (178)

The Ural and Western Volga region is one of Russia's important agricultural areas, mainly growing spring wheat and other summer crops. RAIN increased to 291 mm (+14%) with temperatures 0.7°C below average. Despite decreased RADPAR (-2%), BIOMSS increased 3%. CALF improved slightly to 100% (+1%) with high VCIx (1.02) and CPI (1.20). CI decrease by 1%. The favorable conditions suggest above-average production potential for both spring crops and winter crop establishment.

Western Siberia (179)

Agricultural production in Western Siberia is limited by climatic conditions, with a small cultivated area. It experienced a significant rainfall increase (412 mm, +44%) with temperatures 0.3°C above average. Despite decreased RADPAR (-6%), BIOMSS increased substantially (+21%). CALF improved to 100% (+1%) with high VCIx (0.98) and CPI (1.17). CI was average. The abundant moisture conditions benefited crop development, though excess rainfall may have complicated harvesting operations.




Russia's crop condition, July - October 2024


(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles(g) Temperature profiles
(h) National CPI time series graph
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Western Siberia,right:Middle Siberia)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Eastern Siberia,right:Ural and wetsrn Volga region)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Middle Volga,right:Central black soils area)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Central Russia,right:Northern Caucasus)

Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:South Caucasian,right:)



Table 3.1 Russia's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

Amur and Primorsky Krai

371

-6

14.4

0.8

928

2

771

-6

Central Russia

240

-19

15.4

2.3

854

15

662

-8

Central black soils area

96

-59

17.5

2.6

952

12

445

-31

Eastern Siberia

413

-17

13.6

0.4

858

-0

854

-4

Middle Siberia

271

-7

10.8

1.4

940

2

621

-3

Middle Volga

223

-16

14.2

0.6

863

7

596

-11

Northern Caucasus

107

-46

20.8

1.9

1096

5

510

-19

Northwest Region including Novgorod

259

-20

14.6

2.0

798

12

697

-8

South Caucasian

336

5

17.1

0.2

1046

-4

698

-4

Subarctic region

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Ural and wetsrn Volga region

291

14

11.5

-0.7

746

-2

663

3

Western Siberia

412

44

12.2

0.3

763

-6

842

21

West subarctic region

220

-36

12.9

1.9

720

16

608

-19

Table 3.2 Russia's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

CI

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current

Amur and Primorsky Krai

100

-0

102

0

0.94

0.98

Central Russia

100

-0

101

-6

0.95

1.00

Central black soils area

100

-0

102

-10

0.86

0.95

Eastern Siberia

100

0

105

-2

0.92

0.97

Middle Siberia

95

-3

102

-2

0.84

0.93

Middle Volga

97

2

103

-3

0.90

1.03

Northern Caucasus

58

-33

131

11

0.57

0.58

Northwest Region including Novgorod

100

-0

105

-4

0.90

0.94

South Caucasian

64

-16

113

0

0.68

0.70

Subarctic region

99

-0

106

-1

0.99

0.00

Ural and wetsrn Volga region

100

1

100

-1

1.02

1.20

Western Siberia

100

1

101

0

0.98

1.17

West subarctic region

100

0

102

0

0.96

0.00