Bulletin

wall bulletin
TurkeyMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: limengxiao | Edit: lirui

This monitoring period covers from July to October 2024, which includes the wheat harvest period in July and the sowing of the next wheat season, which started in October. Rice and maize, which were sown in May, also reached maturity in September.  In Türkiye, the proportion of irrigated farmland is 19.8%, and agricultural meteorological conditions play an important role in crop growth. During this period, Türkiye's cumulative rainfall was 179 mm, which is 34% above the 15-year average. However, distribution was not regular. Precipitation was below average in late July and early August, as well as in October. The radiation (RADPAR) was 1272 MJ/m², slightly lower than the 15-year average, showing a 1% decrease. The average temperature was 19.9°C, which is 0.9°C higher than the 15-year average. The potential cumulative biomass was 647 gDM/m², 16% higher than the 15-year average, indicating higher biomass accumulation, which supports good crop yield potential. The crop area (CALF) was 47%, 7% lower than the 15-year average. The vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.67, reflecting average vegetation conditions. The cropping index (CI) was 112%, which is 0.88% lower than the 15-year average.

The NDVI growth curve indicates that crop development across the country was below average, and the vegetation condition index (VCI) distribution map also shows widespread poor crop growth. The primary reason for this is the uneven distribution of rainfall. Some areas had severe soil moisture deficits. This situation is more severe in the Black Sea region, Central Anatolia, and the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions. However, in Eastern Anatolia, the situation was relatively better, with the VCIx value above 1.0, indicating good crop growth. All in all, the below average trend of the NDVI curve indicates slightly below average production and the establishment of the new winter wheat crop has also been negatively impacted by the rainfall deficit in October.

 

Regional Analysis

Türkiye includes four agricultural ecological zones: the Black Sea region (191), Central Anatolia (192), Eastern Anatolia (193), and the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions (194).

In the Black Sea region (191), the cumulative rainfall (RAIN) during the monitoring period was 417 mm, which is 45% higher than the 15-year average. The average temperature (TEMP) was 15.4°C, rising by 0.3°C compared to the long-term average. The radiation (RADPAR) was 1114 MJ/m², unchanged from the 15-year average. The potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 827 gDM/m², 20% higher than the 15-year average, indicating strong crop growth potential. The crop area (CALF) was 94%, in line with the five-year average, indicating stable agricultural activity. The vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.79, and the crop production index (CPI) was 0.83, suggesting good crop growth and stable production conditions in the region.

In the Central Anatolia region (192), the cumulative rainfall (RAIN) during the monitoring period was 176 mm, which is 71% higher than the 15-year average. The average temperature (TEMP) was 18.8°C, 0.9°C higher than the long-term average. The radiation (RADPAR) was 1254 MJ/m², slightly below the 15-year average, down by 2%. The potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 654 gDM/m², 28% higher than the 15-year average, showing strong crop growth potential. The crop area (CALF) was 31%, 18% lower than the five-year average, indicating a decrease in agricultural activity in the region. The vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.57, a low value reflecting limited vegetation growth. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.67, slightly below the expected level, indicating some production challenges in the region.

In the Eastern Anatolia region (193), the cumulative rainfall (RAIN) during the monitoring period was 149 mm, 8% higher than the 15-year average. The average temperature (TEMP) was 18.5°C, 0.9°C higher than the long-term average. The radiation (RADPAR) was 1324 MJ/m², unchanged from the 15-year average. The potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 567 gDM/m², 6% higher than the 15-year average, indicating favorable crop growth potential. The crop area (CALF) was 54%, 20% higher than the five-year average, indicating increased agricultural activity. The vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.82, and the crop production index (CPI) was 1.15, both indicating good crop growth conditions and strong agricultural production potential in the region.

In the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions (194), the cumulative rainfall (RAIN) during the monitoring period was 131 mm, 16% higher than the 15-year average. The average temperature (TEMP) was 23.0°C, 1.2°C higher than the long-term average. The radiation (RADPAR) was 1309 MJ/m², slightly below the 15-year average, down by 1%. The potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 640 gDM/m², 10% higher than the 15-year average, indicating good crop growth potential. The crop area (CALF) was 49%, 15% lower than the five-year average, indicating a decrease in agricultural activity. The vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.64, and the crop production index (CPI) was 0.66, reflecting some challenges in crop growth, despite favorable temperatures and radiation. The production conditions in this region are below average.



Turkey's crop condition, July - October 2024
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles(g) Temperature profiles
(h) National CPI time series graph
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland region,right:Eastern Anatolia region)
Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Central Anatolia region,right:Black Sea region)



Table 3.1 Turkey's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

Black Sea region

417

45

15.4

0.3

1114

0

827

20

Central Anatolia region

176

71

18.8

0.9

1254

-2

654

28

Eastern Anatolia region

149

8

18.5

0.9

1324

-0

567

6

Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland region

131

16

23.0

1.2

1309

-1

640

10

Table 3.2 Turkey's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

CI

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current

Black Sea region

94

-0

130

0.62

0.79

0.83

Central Anatolia region

31

-18

108

-2.00

0.57

0.67

Eastern Anatolia region

54

20

105

2.14

0.82

1.15

Marmara Agean Mediterranean lowland region

49

-15

115

-1.37

0.64

0.66