Maize and winter wheat are two major crops CropWatch monitored in Ukraine. During this monitoring periods (July to October, 2024), maize was harvested in September and October while winter wheat was harvested in July and started to sow during September and October.

Attribute to the combination of lower rainfall (138 mm, -29%) and higher temperature (19.4℃, +2.6℃) Ukraine experienced a severe rainfall deficit in July and August. It occured during the important silking stage of maize and had a negative effect on grain set. However, the drier than usual conditions in July and August benefitted the harvest of wheat. Sowing and establishment of the new winter wheat crop was aided by close to normal rainfall in September and October. 

CropWatch predicted a reduction of 11% in potential crop biomass (547 g DM/m^²), as compared to the 15 YA. Agronomic conditions were also poorer than the 5 YA. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 90%, -6%) and crop intensity (114%, -8%) were slight below the 5 YA. Maximum vegetation condition (VCIx) and crop production index (CPI) only reached 0.78 and 0.86 (the lowest value in since 2019), which confirmed a crop production situation below the 5YA. In line with agronomic conditions, the remote sensing based crop development conditions were not positive either. Average NDVI was lower than the 5 YA throughout the whole monitoring period, only 12.8 % cropped area (mainly concentrated in Odessa Oblast) recovered to above normal in the end of this season. VCIx distribution suggested crop condition was unfavorable (VCIx lower than 0.5) in southern Ukraine such as Zaporizhia, Kherson and Crimea. In summary, most indicators suggested the crop condition during this period was not favorable, especially at the frontline area of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (195) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Eastern Carpathian hills (196) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts; Northern wheat area (197) with Rivne and Southern wheat and maize area (198) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

All four AEZs experienced varying extents of drought in this period. Compared with 15 YA, AEZs had a rainfall deficit from 10 % in the Eastern Carpathian hills to 46 % in the Central wheat area, temperatures were warmer ranging from +1.9 ℃ (Eastern Carpathian hills) to +3.1 ℃ (Central wheat area), only sunshine was normal. Less rainfall led a reduction of 4 % (Eastern Carpathian hills) to 19 % (Central wheat area) in potential biomass. These areas also had below-average NDVI based crop conditions during the whole period. In agronomic aspects, the Southern wheat and maize area suffered the most from the drought and war, CALF (77 %) dropped 16 %, crop intensity (112 %) decreased by 9 %, area had low VCIx (0.65) as well as CPI (0.73) indicating low cropped area and crop prospects in Ukraine. Other three AEZs had high CALF (99 to 100 %), similar crop intensity (114 to 120 %), good VCIx (0.82 to 0.9) and near average CPI (0.92 to 0.98), indicating a near or slightly below-average prospects.

Figure 3.46 Ukraine's crop condition, July - October 2024

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI departure profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

(l) Time series CPI profile

Table 3.83 Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  July - October 2024

Table 3.84 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2024