This report covers the period from July to October 2024, encompassing the flowering, grain filling, and maturation stages of corn, rice, and soybeans in the United States, as well as the harvest period for spring wheat. Overall, the crop growth condition is slightly below average.

Agricultural conditions vary across the country: In the two important wheat-producing areas, the Northwest and the Northern Plains, insufficient rainfall and high temperatures have led to yields below average. In the Lower Mississippi River and the Southeast region, the agricultural weather conditions were normal, and the overall crop condition was generally good. In the Corn Belt, rainfall was normal until mid-August, providing good soil moisture conditions for the flowering and grain filling of corn and soybeans, which is conducive to yield formation. After mid-August, rainfall was below average, creating good conditions for harvest. The Southern Plains experienced persistent lack of rainfall and high temperatures starting in early August, leading to delayed planting and slow development of winter wheat.

According to CropWatch agro-climatic indicators, rainfall (ΔRAIN -11%) was below average, while temperature and radiation (ΔTEMP +0.9°C, ΔRADPAR +3%) were above average, resulting in potential cumulative biomass (ΔBIOMASS -12%) being below average. The rainfall time series shows that the weather was relatively dry in the monitoring period, with insufficient rainfall in mid-August to early September and in October, adversely affecting the growth of some crops.  The NDVI departure profiles indicate that throughout the monitoring period, the crop’s NDVI was below the five-year average. Although there was a slight improvement in NDVI following the restoration of rainfall levels before mid-August, the NDVI in September still showed that the crop condition remained below average. Overall, the CALF reached 86%, which is slightly below the average level (ΔCALF -1%), the Cropping intensity reached 113, and the VCIx was 0.84.

Despite the uneven crop growth conditions across different regions of the country, the CPI is 0.97, indicating that the national crop condition during this period is close to the average level.

Figure 3.42 United States crop condition, July to October 2024

Figure.{a} Phenology of United States from July to October 2024

Figure.{b} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{c} Time series rainfall profile

Figure.{d} Time series temperature profile

Figure.{e} Maximum VCI

Figure.{f} Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Figure.{g} Cropping intensity (2023)

Figure.{h} CPI time series chart for United States

Regional analysis

Summer crops are mainly planted in the Corn Belt (202), Northern Plains (204), Lower Mississippi (203), Southern Plains (207), Southeast (208) and Northwest (206). Due to differences in agro-climate, agronomic condition and irrigation infrastructure among regions, the growth conditions are highly heterogeneous.

(1) Corn Belt

The Corn Belt is the main corn and soybean producing region in the United States, including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. During this period, the Corn Belt region was drier than usual, with rainfall (ΔRAIN -22%) below the average level, and temperature and radiation higher than average (ΔTEMP +1.1°C, ΔRADPAR +6%). Although the Corn Belt was generally moist during the previous monitoring period (April to July), and until mid-August, the lack of rainfall led to a significant 12% decrease in the potential cumulative biomass for this monitoring period compared to the 15-year average. From late August to late September, several consecutive weeks of warm and dry weather accelerated crop maturity, leading to an early harvest. Throughout the monitoring period, CALF was 100%, the Cropping intensity reached 109, VCIx reached 0.94, and the CPI was 1.00, confirming that the overall crop growth condition was normal. CropWatch assesses that the crop yield in the Corn Belt reached the average level.

Figure.{i} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{j} Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.{k} Time series temperature pofile

Figure.{l}  CPI time series chart for Corn Belt

(2) Northern Plains

This region is a major production area for spring wheat and an important region for corn. It includes parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska. During the observation period, the region was mainly affected by hot and dry weather conditions. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that rainfall was below average (ΔRAIN: -65%), while temperature and radiation (ΔTEMP +2.3°C, ΔRADPAR +4%) were above average, resulting in a significant decrease in potential cumulative biomass (ΔBIOMASS -29%). The persistent high temperatures and drought that began in late May from the last monitoring period led to a slowdown in crop growth in the region, which was reflected in the NDVI analysis, showing crop conditions below average. The CALF was 80%, below the average (ΔCALF: -3%). The Cropping intensity was 102, which is 1% lower than the five-year average.  VCIx was only 0.80, close to the average. Overall, CropWatch estimates that the crop yield in the region was slightly below average.

Figure.{m} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{n} Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.{o} Time series temperature pofile

Figure.{p} CPI time series chart for Northern Plains

(3) Lower Mississippi

The Lower Mississippi River AEZ is the largest rice-producing area in the United States and an important soybean-producing region. It mainly includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. During the reporting period, rainfall (ΔRAIN -6%) was below average, and temperature and radiation were above average (ΔTEMP +0.3°C, ΔRADPAR +1%), resulting in potential cumulative biomass (ΔBIOMASS -9%) being below average. NDVI showed that insufficient rainfall and high temperatures in August severely affected the growth of crops, causing a significant decline in crop growth conditions in the region. Subsequent agricultural weather conditions improved, and crop conditions recovered to near average levels. The VCIx was 0.88, the Cropping intensity reached 118, CALF was 100%, and CPI was 0.97, indicating that the crop production situation was close to average. Overall, CropWatch estimates that the crop yield in the region was close to average.

Figure.{q} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{r} Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.{s} Time series temperature pofile

Figure.{t} CPI time series chart for Lower Mississippi

(4) Southern Plains

The Southern Plains is a major production area for winter wheat, sorghum, and cotton. It includes Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and the eastern part of Colorado. During the monitoring period, rainfall was below average (ΔRAIN -23%), and temperature and radiation were above average (ΔTEMP +1.1°C, ΔRADPAR +4%), leading to potential cumulative biomass being below average (ΔBIOMASS -15%). The NDVI curve was below the five-year average, indicating suboptimal crop conditions. August is a critical period for cotton yield formation, and the significant reduction in rainfall and temperatures reaching a 15-year high led to a gradual deterioration in crop growth conditions. Additionally, the cultivated land planting proportion for the region was 80%, 3% below the five-year average. The Cropping intensity reached 113, which is 2% higher than the five-year average. VCIx was only 0.76, and the CPI was also low at 0.88, indicating poor crop production conditions. In summary, CropWatch estimates below average yields for the Southern Plains.

Figure.{u} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{v} Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.{w} Time series temperature pofile

Figure.{x} CPI time series chart for Southern Plains

(5) Southeast

The Southeast Region is an important area for cotton and corn production. It includes Georgia, Alabama, and North Carolina. The agro-climatic conditions were good, with rainfall and temperature (ΔRAIN +24%, ΔTEMP +0.4°C) above average, while radiation and potential cumulative biomass (ΔRADPAR -1%, ΔBIOMASS +1%) were at average levels. During the observation period, the NDVI curve was close to the five-year average. The CALF reached 100% , the Cropping intensity reached 124, VCIx was 0.87, and CPI was 0.97. Overall, CropWatch considers that the crop yield in the region reached the average level.

Figure.{y} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{z} Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.{aa} Time series temperature pofile

Figure.{ab} CPI time series chart for Southeast

(6) Northwest

This region is the second-largest winter wheat producing area in the United States and is also an important area for spring wheat production. During the monitoring period, wheat reached maturity, with most harvested before August. The below average crop conditions in the region continued from the previous monitoring period, with NDVI consistently below average, primarily due to insufficient moisture. Rainfall was 35% below average, while temperature and radiation were 1.0°C and 1% above average, respectively, leading to a significant 14% reduction in potential cumulative biomass. The NDVI curve showed that NDVI was below average before August, indicating poor growth conditions for wheat. Subsequent lack of soil moisture delayed the germination and establishment of winter wheat, with NDVI failing to reach average levels. Compared to the 5YA, CALF (68%) was 4% below average, the Cropping intensity (119) was 5% higher than the average level, VCIx was 0.73, and CPI was 0.87, indicating poor crop growth conditions for the period. In summary, CropWatch estimates that the crop yields in the region were below average.

Figure.{ac} Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.{ad} Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.{ae} Time series temperature pofile

Figure.{af}. CPI time series chart for Northwest

Table 3.75.United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July to October 2024

Table 3.76. United States’agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, July to October 2024