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Authors: ZHENG_Zhaoju | Edit: lirui
This monitoring period from July to October 2024 covers the growing and harvesting stage of maize, as well as the harvest stage (July and August) and the sowing stage (September and October) of wheat. Summer precipitation is minimal, as rain falls mostly during winter. 30% of the cropland in Uzbekistan are irrigated. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, rainfall (RAIN) was far above average (ΔRAIN +89%), while temperature (TEMP) and radiation (RADPAR) were slightly below average (ΔTEMP -0.1°C and ΔRADPAR -3%) compared to the 15-year average (15YA). The precipitation was significantly above the 15YA in September and October. The temperature was generally close to the 15YA, but was slightly higher than average in late July, early August and early October. The biomass accumulation (BIOMSS) increased by 7% compared to the 15YA. At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicates that besides late October, when it was above the five-year maximum, the crop conditions were close to the five-year average.
The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.83. The areas with low VCIx values were mainly in the southwest of the Eastern hilly cereals zone and the northwest of the Aral Sea cotton zone. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF, 65%) increased by 6% compared to its 5YA. The cropping intensity was 113%, which had slightly increased by 1%. As shown in the NDVI cluster graph and profiles, 44.7% of arable land (blue and orange) had above-average crop conditions during the whole monitoring period, mainly in the central and east areas of the Eastern hilly cereals. 37.7% of arable land (red and green), distributed discretely in the Eastern hilly cereals and the Aral Sea cotton zones, had unfavorable conditions during the whole monitoring period. The other 17.7% of arable land (light green) had unfavorable conditions during July to August, but turned to better crop conditions than average in September and October. The crop production index (CPI) was 1.03, which was close to the five-year average CPI (1.04). Prospects for crop production in Uzbekistan are estimated to be normal.
Regional analysis
Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZ) can be distinguished for Uzbekistan: Central region with sparse crops (210), Eastern hilly cereals zone (211), and Aral Sea cotton zone (212).
In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, TEMP and RADPAR were slightly below average (ΔTEMP -0.1°C andΔRADPAR -3%), while RAIN was far above average (ΔRAIN +93%). The CALF was 64%, which increased by 8% compared to the 5YA. The average VCIx index was 0.84. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were close to the 5YA in July and August, while it turned to slightly above the 5YA in early September, and over the five-year maximum in late October. The BIOMSS increased by 9% compared to the 15YA. The cropping intensity was 115%, slightly increased by 2% compared to the 5YA. The crop production index (CPI) was 1.03. The prospects for crop production were average.
In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN and RADPAR were below average (ΔRAIN -40% andΔRADPAR -3%), while TEMP was equal to the 15YA. These agroclimatic conditions resulted in a slight decrease in BIOMSS (-6%) in this AEZ. The CALF (65%) increased by 2% compared to the 5YA. The cropping intensity was 102%, which increased by 1% compared to the 5YA. The NDVI-based crop condition development graph shows that the crop conditions were close to the 5YA in this monitoring period, except in early July, which was below the 5YA. The maximum VCI index was 0.81 and the crop production index (CPI) was 1.02. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were close to normal.
Figure 3.5 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, July - October 2024
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles
(g) Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI of Eastern hilly cereals region (left) and Aral Sea cotton region (right)
(i) CPI time series graph
Table 3.2 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, July - October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current (mm) | Departure (%) | Current (°C) | Departure (°C) | Current (MJ/m2) | Departure (%) | Current (gDM/m2) | Departure (%) | |
Central region with sparse crops | 22 | 63 | 23.8 | 0.0 | 1296 | -3 | 467 | 1 |
Eastern hilly cereals zone | 77 | 93 | 21.7 | -0.1 | 1332 | -3 | 532 | 9 |
Aral Sea cotton zone | 8 | -40 | 23.3 | 0.0 | 1254 | -3 | 420 | -6 |
Table 3.3 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2024
Region | Cropped arable land fraction | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current (%) | Departure (%) | Current(%) | Departure (%) | Current | Current | |
Central region with sparse crops | 80 | 4 | 104 | 4 | 0.89 | 0.82 |
Eastern hilly cereals zone | 64 | 8 | 115 | 2 | 0.84 | 1.03 |
Aral Sea cotton zone | 65 | 2 | 102 | 1 | 0.81 | 1.02 |