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South AfricaMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: air_panqc | Edit: lirui

During this monitoring period, wheat remains the main crop in South Africa. It is grown mainly in the Mediterranean zone. For the other regions, this was predominantly a fallow period, until sowing of maize and soybean started in October.

Nationally, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that South Africa experienced drier and warmer weather than usual. The RAIN was below average by 14%, TEMP was slightly higher by +0.2°C, and RADPAR was slightly above average by +3%. These indicators led to a 5% reduction in potential BIOMASS.

The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was only 0.57, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 9% compared to the 5-year average level. The CPI was 1, indicating normal agricultural production conditions. The NDVI development graph indicates that crop conditions were below the 5-year average throughout this monitoring period, primarily due to prolonged warm and dry conditions.

According to the VCIx, conditions in the semiarid steppe region were comparatively poor against the other three regions. Most areas in its central region were below 0.5. As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, it shows that about 70% of the cropland was below the average level throughout the monitoring period, mainly concentrated in the North West Province, Free State, and Mpumalanga; only 6.7% of the areas were consistently above the average level throughout the monitoring period, primarily located in the coastal areas of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape Provinces. Crop conditions in the important wheat production region of the Mediterranean zone were generally favorable. Good rains in late October will help with the establishment of the summer crops in the other regions.


Regional analysis

In the Arid and desert zones (221) , compared to the 15-year average, the RAIN was significantly below average (-22%), and TEMP was slightly lower by -0.2°C, with RADPAR marginally up by +3%. The decrease in RAIN led to a 7% reduction in BIOMSS. The CALF significantly increased by 39%, and the Cropping intensity was close to the average (115%, down 2%), indicating normal land use efficiency. The VCIx was 0.86. The CPI was relatively low at 0.79. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, it shows that crop condition was lower in July and August, mainly influenced by the hot and dry conditions during these months, but returned to the 5-year average in September and October. Overall, crop conditions were average.

 

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains (222), compared to the 15-year average, the TEMP was slightly higher (+0.5°C) and RADPAR was also above average by +5%. However, the RAIN decreased by 26%. Under these conditions, BIOMSS was 12% below the average. The CALF was 86%, and the Cropping intensity was close to the average (108%, up 2%), indicating normal land use efficiency. The VCIx was 0.84. The CPI stands at 1, indicating moderate crop production conditions. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that crop condition was below the the 5-year average in August, but better in other months.

 

In the Mediterranean zone (223), compared to the 15-year average, the TEMP dropped by 1°C, and RADPAR increased by 1%, while the RAIN was significantly above average (+80%). This led to a 21% increase in BIOMASS. Compared to the 5-year average, the CALF was high (91%, +5%), and the Cropping intensity was at the average level (104%, down 2%), indicating normal land use efficiency. The VCIx was 0.91. The CPI was 1.03, indicating good production conditions. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that crop condition was below the 5-year average in July and August but exceeded the average in September and October. Crop conditions were generally normal.


In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas (224), compared to the 15-year average, the TEMP was slightly up (+0.4°C) and RADPAR was also marginally higher (+3%), but the RAIN significantly decreased (−30%). Under these conditions, BIOMASS was 8% below the average. The CALF was 12%, significantly decreased by 34%, and the Cropping intensity was close to average (102%, 0%). The VCIx was only 0.46. The CPI was very low at 0.54. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that NDVI was generally below the 5-year average throughout the monitoring period, indicating generally poor crop conditions.


South Africa's crop condition, July - October 2024
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c) Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles(g) Temperature profiles
(h) National CPI time series graph
(i)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas,right:Mediterranean zone)
(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Humid Cape Fold mountains,right:Arid and desert zones)



Table 3.1 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

Arid and desert zones

61

-22

13.1

-0.2

1140

3

338

-7

Humid Cape Fold mountains

145

-26

15.7

0.5

1012

5

515

-12

Mediterranean zone

383

80

11.4

-1.0

968

1

684

21

Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas

58

-30

14.7

0.4

1210

3

359

-8

Table 3.2 South Africa's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

Cropping Intensity

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current

Arid and desert zones

36

39

115

-2

0.86

0.79

Humid Cape Fold mountains

85

6

108

2

0.84

1.00

Mediterranean zone

91

5

104

-2

0.91

1.03

Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas

12

-34

102

0

0.46

0.65