Bulletin

wall bulletin
MadagascarMain producing and exporting countries

Authors: Tahiana,nanja | Edit: lirui


This bulletin reports the analysis of the crop conditions from July to October, 2024. It’s a dry saison in Madagascar (April to October). Most land is left fallow during the dry winter months. Maize and rice planting will start in November.

The accumulated rainfall was 107mm, which was 32% below the 15A. According the rainfall profiles graph, it was very low from July to early August and near average between mid-August and mid-September compared to the 15YA. The temperature was 20.5 ºC. It was 0.3ºC higher than the 15YA. RADPAR was above the 15YA by 3%. The BIOMSS discreased by 9% compared to the 15YA. 

The CALF declined to 1% ompared with the five-years average (5YA), while the maximum VCI and CPI were 0.83 and 0.92 respectively. For the CPI graph, the value of 2024 is higher than last year and slightly below 5YA value. 


In summary, the agroclimatic conditions were close to normal, but no crops were grown.


REGIONS

Madagascar has 6 provinces including: the Mahajanga, Toamasina, Toliary, Antananarivo, Antsiranana and Fianarantsoa. Among them, only the Mahajanga, Toamasina, Toliary and Antananarivo provinces are related to main produciton areas for rice and maize. 

Compare to the other five provinces, the rainfall departure of Mahajanga was most serious and lower than the 15YA by 43%. Due to the significant precipitation deficit, the biomass decreased by 9%. The agroclimatic conditions were unfavorable.

Toamasina is an important region for planting rice. Temperature and radiation were above average by 0.4°C and 5%. Potential biomass was below average by 12% mainly due to the lower rainfall (ΔRAIN -28%). VCIx value were 0.91, indicating of normal or slightly unfavorable vegetation conditions.

Toliary is a major rice production province. The temperature was below on the average. Potential biomass was below the average by 2% due to the lower rainfall (ΔRAIN -12%). The VCIx was 0.74, indicating of unfavorable vegetaion growth for this region. 

For the province Antananarivo, which has a significant agricultural production, the RAIN was 70 mm, 42% lower than the 15YA, while the TEMP was 16.3°C, 0.2°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 4% higher than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 12% lower than the 15YA. CALF was 16% lower than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.76.  The sigificant rainfall deficit was unfavorable for the vegetaion growth for this region.

 





(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI departure profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles(g) Temperature profiles

(h) National CPI time series graph



Table 3.1 Madagascar's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024

Region

RAIN

TEMP

RADPAR

BIOMSS

Current
(mm)

Departure
(%)

Current
(°C)

Departure
(°C)

Current
(MJ/m2)

Departure
(%)

Current
(gDM/m2)

Departure
(%)

Antananarivo

70

-42

16.3

0.2

1246

4

436

-13

Antsiranana

165

-36

21.5

1.0

1121

2

659

-12

Fianarantsoa

168

-20

18.3

0.5

1139

3

608

-8

Mahajanga

44

-43

22.5

0.0

1274

4

497

-9

Toamasina

204

-29

17.6

0.4

1027

5

672

-12

Toliary

47

-12

22.1

-0.0

1216

0

462

-2

Table 3.2 Madagascar's  agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024

Region

CALF

CI

Maximum VCI

CPI

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current(%)

Departure from 5YA(%)

Current

Current

Antananarivo

29

-16

104

2.36

0.76

1.00

Antsiranana

98

-0

109

-0.37

0.85

0.89

Fianarantsoa

90

1

106

2.91

0.87

1.01

Mahajanga

78

-4

112

3.70

0.76

0.83

Toamasina

99

0

125

11.01

0.91

0.91

Toliary

50

-3

104

0.78

0.75

1.02