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Authors: tianfuyou | Edit: lirui
After a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1), Chapter 4 presents an updated estimate of major cereals and soybean production as well as of summer crop production and total annual outputs at provincial and national levels (4.2). It also describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of China: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.3). Section 4.4 describes the trade prospects of major cereals and soybean. Additional information on the agro-climatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces is listed in table A.11 in Annex A.
4.1 Overview
During the reporting time, fields were predominantly occupied with summer crops including semi-late rice, maize, and soybean. Concurrently, this period encompassed the harvesting phase for early rice and spring wheat. Additionally, the planting phase for late rice concluded in the month of July.
During the recent monitoring period, agricultural climatic conditions in China have shown some positive changes. The rainfall reached 799 mm, which is 5 mm above the 15-year average (15YA), indicating a slightly wetter growing season. The average temperature was 21.0°C, 1.2°C higher than the 15YA, which may help to accelerate crop growth cycles. Solar radiation (RADPAR) was at 1063 MJ/m², 2% above the 15YA, providing ample energy for photosynthesis for the crops. The potential biomass (BIOMSS) was at 1020 gDM/m², a rather high value, indicating a strong potential for crop growth.
The cropped arable land fraction remained stable at 98%, with no departure from the 5-year average (5YA), suggesting a steady proportion of land available for planting. Cropping intensity was at 128%, 1% above the 5YA, reflecting an increase in planting activities or intensified crop rotations. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was at 0.94, very close to 1, indicating very good vegetation health, which is usually associated with high yields. The country-level crop production index was at 1.00, indicating that the overall crop production was at a normal level, equivalent to the long-term average.
There has been a general trend of increased rainfall compared to the average. The Huang Huaihai region and Inner Mongolia experienced significant increases of 58 % and 53%, respectively. The Loess region and North East China also saw modest increases in precipitation. These variations in rainfall positively impact agricultural productivity, provided that the water is effectively managed.
Based on the VCIx imagery, it is observed that the central part of Gansu, Ningxia, and the northern part of Shaanxi, as well as the central region of Shanxi, are experiencing poor crop growth conditions. This could be attributed to a variety of factors such as insufficient rainfall, pest infestations, or unfavorable temperatures which may be impacting the vegetation health in these areas. Conversely, in the western part of Liaoning province, the VCIx values indicate that crops are exhibiting better growth vigor. This suggests that the conditions in this region, including climate, soil moisture, and management practices, are currently more conducive to healthy crop development.
In summary, the agricultural production conditions in China during the latest monitoring period have shown favorable trends conducive to crop growth and yield enhancement. The moderate increase in rainfall and temperature, along with the stable proportion of arable land and increased cropping intensity, are positive factors for promoting crop health and production.
Table 4.1 CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, July to Oct 2024, departure from 15YA and 5YA
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | CALF | Cropping Intensity | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||||||
Current(mm) | Departure from 15YA(%) | Current(°C) | Departure from 15YA(°C) | Current(MJ/m2) | Departure from 15YA(%) | Current(gDM/m2) | Departure from 15YA(%) | Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current | Current | |
Gansu-Xinjiang | 319 | 49 | 15.9 | 0.1 | 1099 | -5 | 635 | 14 | 88 | 1 | 102 | 1 | 0.90 | 1.02 |
Hainan | 1427 | 8 | 26.2 | 0.4 | 1197 | -1 | 1522 | 2 | 100 | 0 | 126 | 7 | 0.91 | 0.96 |
Huang Huaihai | 692 | 58 | 23.2 | 1.1 | 1064 | -1 | 1069 | 17 | 99 | 0 | 165 | 13 | 0.92 | 1.00 |
Inner Mongolia | 388 | 53 | 16.9 | 0.9 | 1025 | -6 | 807 | 18 | 97 | 1 | 100 | -1 | 0.95 | 1.02 |
Loess region | 434 | 14 | 18.4 | 1.6 | 1079 | 0 | 893 | 9 | 97 | 0 | 114 | 7 | 0.89 | 0.99 |
Lower Yangtze rtegion | 846 | 1 | 24.4 | 1.2 | 1096 | 3 | 1263 | 3 | 99 | 0 | 138 | 3 | 0.93 | 0.99 |
North East China | 497 | 30 | 16.4 | 0.8 | 966 | -3 | 849 | 5 | 100 | 0 | 101 | -1 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
Qinghai-Tibet | 754 | -34 | 13.3 | 1.8 | 1067 | 8 | 751 | 1 | 98 | 1 | 121 | 4 | 0.90 | 1.02 |
Southern China | 1292 | 4 | 23.5 | 0.8 | 1100 | 1 | 1411 | 2 | 98 | 0 | 158 | 10 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
Figure 4.1 China crop calendar
Figure 4.2 China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, July to Oct 2024
Figure 4.3 China spatial distribution of temperature profiles
Figure 4.4 China cropped and uncropped arable land, by pixel, July to Oct 2024
Figure 4.5 China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, July to Oct 2024
Figure 4.6 China biomass departure map from 15YA, by pixel, July to Oct 2024
Figure 4.7 China minimum Vegetation Health Index (VHIn), by pixel, July to Oct 2024
Figure 4.8 China Cropping Intensity (CI), by pixel, July to Oct 2024