Using multi-source remote sensing data from satellites such as the Fengyun Meteorological Satellite, ESA's Sentinel-1/2, and NASA's Landsat 8/9, along with agricultural meteorological information and crop yield monitoring models, a review of the yield and production of major grain and oil crops in China was conducted as of October 31. The results show that in 2024, the country has achieved a bumper harvest, with the total grain production increasing by 1.01 million tons compared to the previous year. Among this, the domestic implementation of the soybean and oilseed production capacity enhancement program has yielded significant results. The expansion of soybean planting area has boosted the production to 18.65 million tons, a growth rate of 8.6%.

(1) Minor decrease in summer crops, but overall grain harvest remains bumper

The total grain production for 2024 (including summer crops, winter crops, and early rice) is 653.8 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons compared to 2023, with a growth rate of 0.2% (Table 4.1), resulting in a bumper harvest for the year. Among this, the total production of summer crops (including maize, medium rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybeans, miscellaneous grains, and tuber crops) is 481.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.54 million tons compared to 2023, with a reduction of 0.3%.

During the growing season of summer crops, the Northeast region was repeatedly affected by strong rainfall, leading to local flooding disasters. The continuous overcast and rainy weather resulted in below average solar radiation, negatively affecting the growth and yield of summer crops in parts of the Liaohe Plain and Sanjiang Plain. By the end of August, the meteorological conditions in the Northeast generally returned to normal. However, multiple typhoons, including Typhoon "Gemi," caused lodging of summer crops in parts of the southeastern coastal areas and the middle and lower Yangtze River region. In some areas, flooding occurred, which had a certain adverse effect on summer crop production in these regions.

In 2024, the total production of winter crops is 145.0 million tons  an increase of 2.56 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 1.8%. The agricultural meteorological conditions in the main summer crop production areas were generally favorable, with the average yield per unit area increasing by 1.0% compared to last year. The area planted with winter crops increased by 0.7%, with the Huang-Huai-Hai region and Xinjiang showing the most significant increase in area.

The production of early rice in the amount of  27.387 million tons is accounted for separately, i.e., it is not included in the summer and winter crops.

Table 4.1 Forecasts and Year-on-Year Changes in Autumn Grain and Annual Grain Production in China's Main Grain-Producing Provinces, 2024

(2) Maize planting area decreases by 784 thousand ha, yield decreases by 3.04 million tons

The total maize production in 2024 is estimated to be 229.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.04 million tons compared to the previous year, with a reduction of 1.3% (Table 4.2). Remote sensing monitoring shows that the maize planting area in China for 2024 is 41.312 million ha, a decrease of 784 thousand ha compared to last year, with a reduction of 1.9%. Among the regions, Heilongjiang’s maize planting area shrank by 465.3 thousand ha, although it remains higher than in 2022. The significant reduction in area makes Heilongjiang the province with the largest decrease in maize production. The maize planting areas in Jilin and Inner Mongolia decreased by 66.67 thousand ha and 168 thousand ha, while Xinjiang’s maize planting area increased by 30 thousand ha compared to last year.

During the growing season of maize, several major production areas were affected by adverse agricultural meteorological conditions, including high temperatures, drought, extreme rainfall, and localized flooding disasters. However, the development of high-standard farmland has provided strong support for disaster prevention and reduction. The national average maize yield is expected to be 5.5605 t/ha, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. In mid-to-late June, the Huang-Huai-Hai region experienced sustained high temperatures and low rainfall, leading to delayed maize establishment. The use of irrigation effectively helped alleviate the drought conditions during the planting period, and the agricultural conditions later returned to normal, with yields recovering to expected levels. From late July to mid-August, the Northeast region experienced an extreme heavy rainfall event, resulting in flooding disasters in Liaoning. The maize yield in the province decreased by 0.8% compared to last year. However, agricultural conditions returned to normal by the end of August, and the maize yield in the Northeast provinces increased from the forecasted yield in August. Xinjiang had the largest increase in maize production, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, mainly due to the dual contributions of an expanded planting area and higher yields.

Table 4.2 Production Forecasts and Year-on-Year Changes in Main Grain-Producing Provinces, 2024

(3) Multiple rounds of typhoons since august lead to a slight decrease in average rice yield by 0.4%, resulting in a reduction of 1.37 million tons in rice production

The total rice production in China is 194.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.37 million tons compared to the previous year, with a reduction of 0.7%.

The early rice production is 27.38 million tons, slightly down by 50 thousand tons compared to last year. The medium rice/first-season rice production is 133.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.6%, while the late rice production is 33.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% (Table 4.3). From mid-July to mid-August, the northern first-season rice production areas were affected by continuous heavy rainfall, which hindered rice pollination and yield formation. However, the increase in planting area led to a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and 0.8% in Heilongjiang and Jilin, respectively. In Liaoning, flooding disasters in rice-producing areas resulted in a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% in rice production. Similarly, the main rice-producing areas in the Yangtze River Basin were also impacted by heavy rainfall, leading to localized flooding disasters. In Jiangxi, Hunan, and Hubei, rice production slightly decreased compared to last year.

Since August, multiple typhoons, including "Gemi," have affected parts of the southeastern coast and the middle and lower Yangtze River, leading to regional lodging of medium and late rice and other summer crops. In Anhui, medium and late rice production decreased by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively. In Jiangsu, damage to the medium rice yield resulted in a 1.6% decrease in the province's rice production. In contrast, the agricultural conditions in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and other regions were favorable, with increased rice planting areas, leading to a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and 12.6% in rice production in these provinces.

Table 4.3 Early, Mid, and Late Rice Production and Year-on-Year Changes in China's Main Rice-Producing Provinces, 2024

(4) Soybean planting area Increases by 697.3 million ha, yield increases by 1.48 million tons

In 2024, the total soybean production in China reached 18.6 million tons, an increase of 14.8 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 8.6%. Based on monitoring with high-resolution remote sensing data throughout the growing season, the national soybean planting area is estimated at 9.93 million ha, an increase of 697.3 thousand ha compared to 2023, with a growth rate of 7.6%. This is the largest planting area since the implementation of the soybean revitalization plan. The national average soybean yield is 1.878 t/ha, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%.

The increase in soybean planting area in 2024 is mainly related to the annual corn-soybean rotation in the northwest of Heilongjiang, a major soybean production area, and the increase in soybean planting subsidies. The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang is 5.024 million ha, an increase of 382.7 thousand ha compared to last year, with a growth rate of 8.2%. The significant increase in planted area prompted the province to increase soybean production by 0.58 million tons year-on-year to 6.9 million tons; In Inner Mongolia, the soybean planting area further increased to 1.606 million ha, a year-on-year increase of 86 thousand ha, with a growth rate of 5.7%. Coupled with a year-on-year increase in yield, the soybean production in the autonomous region rose by 9.2%. Soybean production in provinces such as Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong also increased year-on-year, while soybean production in Anhui and Shanxi slightly decreased.

(5) Slight increase in wheat planting area, yield boosts national wheat production by 2.43 million tons

In 2024, the total wheat production in China is 137.2 million tons, an increase of 2.43 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 1.8%. Among this, winter wheat production is 131.29 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons, while spring wheat production is 5.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 95 thousand tons.

The national wheat planting area is 25.049 million ha, an increase of 58.7 thousand ha compared to 2023, a slight increase of 0.2%. Among this, the winter wheat planting area is 23.775 million ha, an increase of 60 thousand ha, while the spring wheat planting area is 1.32 million ha, a decrease of 1.33 thousand ha compared to last year.

Agricultural meteorological conditions in the main wheat production areas were generally favorable, with fewer agricultural disasters. The national average wheat yield is expected to be 5.466 t/ha, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The average yield of winter wheat is 5.523 t/ha, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, while the average yield of spring wheat is 4.44 t/ha, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.