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Authors: Miao,USchulthess,Wangyixuan | Edit: lirui
5.1 CropWatch food production estimates
Methodological introduction
CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models, CropWatch global agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, and meteorological data from over 20,000 meteorological weather stations around the world. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 48 major producing and exporting countries are estimated and forecast for 2024. The is assessments for the estimates included remote sensing monitoring and verification of yield for the above indicated major staple crops that were either in their growing period or close to harvest.
Global Crop Production Index
Figure 5.1 Global CPI Time Series Graph for the Fourth Quarter
The global CPI for the fourth quarter of 2024 (July-October) is 0.99, slightly higher than the past two years and reaching the 5-year average level, indicating an overall improvement in crop growth this year, with conditions generally normal. However, there are still some unfavorable factors, mainly due to high temperatures and rainfall deficits in regions such as the Black Sea coast of Europe and Argentina in South America.
Production estimates
CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing data, agro-climatic data, and ground-based measurements. Supported by CropWatch's cloud platform and remote sensing monitoring models and technologies, the major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production dynamics of 48 major producing and exporting countries were comprehensively estimated and forecast for 2024.
From July to October 2024, global land surface temperatures reached record highs. Intensified global warming has led to more frequent extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and floods. The spatial distribution of the Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) revealed delayed rainy seasons and insufficient precipitation in southern Africa during the monitoring period, affecting the sowing and establishment of the rainy season crops. Severe rainfall deficits also occurred in the countries bordering the Black Sea coast of Europe, resulting in significantly below-average crop conditions. Similarly, parts of the Pampas in Argentina, Central Brazil, and the upper U.S. Midwest were impacted by rainfall deficits, leading to suboptimal crop conditions. Conversely, favorable meteorological conditions prevailed in Central Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Central Asia, where summer crops performed better than the five-year average. Notably, crop conditions in Kazakhstan and parts of the neighboring Wolga region in Russia reached the best crop conditions in five years. Overall, the impact of extreme weather events on staple crop and oilseed production during July–October 2024 was less severe than in 2023.
Global food production in 2024 is expected to remain stable, with increases in rice, wheat, and soybean yields, while maize saw a slight decline. Total production of staple crops and oilseeds is projected at 2.901 billion tonnes, an increase of 26.85 million tonnes, approximately 0.9% up from 2023.
Table 5.1 2024 cereal crops and soybean production estimates in million tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2024 production when compared with corresponding 2023 values.
Country | Maize | Rice | Wheat | Soybean | ||||
2024 | Δ(%) | 2024 | Δ(%) | 2024 | Δ(%) | 2024 | Δ(%) | |
Afghanistan | 2.88 | -6.7 | ||||||
Angola | 2.75 | 0.8 | 0.05 | 4.8 | ||||
Argentina | 55.59 | 11.9 | 2.20 | 22.6 | 15.01 | 10.2 | 50.49 | 20.2 |
Australia | 27.12 | 14.1 | ||||||
Bangladesh | 3.67 | 4.3 | 46.27 | -2.0 | ||||
Belarus | 3.14 | 9.8 | ||||||
Brazil | 100.74 | 0.1 | 11.40 | 2.4 | 7.86 | -4.5 | 102.86 | -3.5 |
Cambodia | 10.88 | 5.5 | ||||||
Canada | 10.17 | -8.4 | 29.17 | 4.4 | 7.45 | -1.3 | ||
China | 229.71 | -1.3 | 194.44 | -0.7 | 137.15 | 1.8 | 18.65 | 8.6 |
Egypt | 5.83 | -2.8 | 6.70 | -2.3 | 11.30 | -0.3 | ||
Ethiopia | 6.36 | 8.4 | 3.30 | 1.7 | ||||
France | 13.04 | 0.2 | 29.40 | -12.0 | ||||
Germany | 4.76 | 6.9 | 24.94 | 4.3 | ||||
Hungary | 5.51 | 1.5 | 4.26 | -5.6 | ||||
India | 16.71 | -1.7 | 186.44 | 6.7 | 100.16 | 2.6 | 13.56 | 4.1 |
Indonesia | 18.59 | 0.6 | 64.92 | 1.3 | ||||
Iran | 3.43 | 26.8 | 13.32 | 10.7 | ||||
Italy | 5.57 | 1.7 | 7.82 | -0.2 | ||||
Kazakhstan | 17.08 | 45.6 | ||||||
Kenya | 2.50 | 7.8 | 0.28 | 0.7 | ||||
Kyrgyzstan | 0.71 | 15.4 | ||||||
Madagascar | ||||||||
Mexico | 27.79 | 14.7 | 3.73 | 6.6 | ||||
Mongolia | 0.31 | 1.8 | ||||||
Morocco | 4.72 | -32.0 | ||||||
Mozambique | 2.15 | -4.4 | 0.39 | -2.3 | ||||
Myanmar | 1.86 | -0.1 | 22.84 | -2.3 | ||||
Nigeria | 10.20 | -0.5 | 4.64 | 1.1 | ||||
Pakistan | 6.60 | 16.1 | 13.53 | 17.9 | 25.35 | 1.0 | ||
Philippines | 7.86 | -0.3 | 21.06 | -0.4 | ||||
Poland | 9.52 | -5.1 | ||||||
Romania | 10.97 | -6.4 | 7.20 | -1.8 | ||||
Russia | 15.02 | 5.9 | 82.80 | -0.2 | 3.90 | 2.7 | ||
South Africa | 10.67 | -12.6 | 1.73 | 5.8 | ||||
Sri Lanka | 2.42 | -0.6 | ||||||
Thailand | 3.96 | 0.8 | 38.39 | 0.6 | ||||
Turkey | 6.00 | -9.2 | 17.96 | -4.3 | ||||
Ukraine | 22.73 | -12.8 | 18.93 | -16.3 | ||||
United Kingdom | 12.32 | -1.0 | ||||||
USA | 371.51 | -1.3 | 10.91 | -3.4 | 58.66 | 5.4 | 99.98 | -0.5 |
Uzbekistan | 7.53 | 14.8 | ||||||
Vietnam | 4.93 | -1.1 | 45.10 | -1.7 | ||||
Zambia | 3.37 | -7.7 | 0.23 | -9.8 | ||||
Syria | 3.73 | 18.6 | ||||||
Algeria | 2.02 | 19.7 | ||||||
Laos | 3.82 | -0.9 | ||||||
Lebanon | 0.16 | 5.9 | ||||||
Sub-total | 987.14 | -0.3 | 694.51 | 1.8 | 691.81 | 1.8 | 296.88 | 2.1 |
Others | 81.99 | 3.2 | 72.74 | 1.8 | 51.23 | -3.4 | 24.82 | -9.8 |
Global | 1069.13 | -0.1 | 767.25 | 1.8 | 743.04 | 1.4 | 321.70 | 1.1 |
Maize
In 2024, global production is estimated at 1.069 billion tonnes, a slight decrease of 0.75 million tonnes or 0.1%. Both the United States and China, the world's largest Maize producers, reduced their planting areas, contributing to this decline. In the United States, as the world's largest maize producer, the planted area decreased slightly by 1.0%. Persistent rainy weather during the early growth stage in major producing regions adversely affected crop conditions. Although conditions improved later, yields still declined by 0.3%. As a result, the total production is expected to reach 371.51 million tonnes, a decrease of 4.87 million tonnes or 1.3%. In China, the reduction in planting area is expected to result in a total production of 229.71 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.04 million tonnes or 1.3%.
In Canada, reduced planting area caused an 8.4% decline in maize production, while in India, production decreased slightly by 1.7%. In Europe, favorable weather conditions in major producing countries such as Russia, France, and Germany contributed to increased maize production. However, hot and drought in Eastern European countries like Romania reduced yields, leading to a production decline of 6.4%. Hungary also suffered from extreme hot weather which resulted in lower yield but with the increased planted area, maize production slightly increased. Turkey and Ukraine also experienced reductions in both planting area and yield, causing their maize production decreased to 6 million tonnes and 22.73 million tonnes, with declines of 9.2% and 12.8%, respectively.
In Kenya, improved weather conditions significantly alleviated previous droughts. Compared to previous years, crop growth improved markedly, with both planting area and yields increasing. Maize production showed an increase of 7.8%. Similarly, in Ethiopia, favorable growing conditions resulted in an 8.4% increase in production. In Mexico, both planted area and yields grew, raising production to 27.79 million tonnes, an increase of 3.57 million tonnes or 14.7%. Pakistan achieved the largest growth rate among major producing countries, with production rising to 6.6 million tonnes, an increase of 16.1%.
Maize production in major southern hemisphere countries showed significant variation during the 2023/24 growing season. In Argentina, abundant rainfall and suitable temperatures during the growing season allowed crops to recover from prolonged drought. Planting area increased by 4.5%, and despite pest outbreaks in key regions during the late-season growth, their overall impact on national production was limited. Average yields increased by 7.0%, bringing total production to 55.59 million tonnes, a rise of 11.9%. In Brazil, rainfall showed significant north-south differentiation: while southern regions experienced abundant rainfall, central and northern areas faced drought. Drought further reduced first-crop production in central and southern Brazil by 1.2% from the already decreased conditions of the 2022-2023 season, decreasing to just 21.9 million tonnes. Although the planting area in second-crop planting season was initially affected by drought, increased rainfall after February boosted yields, bringing total production to an estimated 100.74 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.1%.
From October 2023 to April 2024, southern Africa experienced severe and prolonged drought due to El Niño. Rainfall during the monitoring period was 30-40% below the historical average, delaying planting in countries like South Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique. The persistent drought throughout the growing season severely affected crop conditions, with maize conditions in northern part of South Africa main producing regions significantly below the 5-year average.
The drought caused substantial yield declines in southern Africa and Zambia, leading to production decreases of 12.6% and 7.7%, respectively, and exacerbating food shortages in these regions. In contrast, Angola, also located in southern Africa, experienced relatively normal agroclimatic conditions. Slight increases in both planting area and yield resulted in an increase of 0.8% in maize production.
Rice
Global rice production in 2024 reached 767 million tonnes, an increase of 13.84 million tonnes or 1.8%. Southeast Asia and South Asia, key global rice producing and exporting regions, saw slight production declines in most major producing countries. The cyclones since August negatively affected semi-late and late rice yield in China, resulting in 0.7% total production decrease compared to 2023. Production increased in India, the top producer. Rice production in Pakistan and Indonesia increased as well. Most rice producing countries in Southern Hemisphere also presented increased production.
Due to the El Niño, the 2024 dry-season rice crop in Southeast Asia was dominated by hot and dry weather, leading to generally poor production. Countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Laos faced rainfall shortages, which reduced rice yields and caused production to decline by 2.0%, 2.3%, and 0.9%, respectively. In the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, reductions in planted area led to production decreases of 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.7%, respectively.
In India, both planted area and yields increased, raising total rice production to 186.44 million tonnes, with an increase of 11.67 million tonnes or 4.6%. This increase offset the production losses in other countries. In Cambodia, production increased by 5.5%. Indonesia also saw a production increase of 1.3% due to higher yields, while Thailand achieved a modest increase of 0.6%. In Pakistan, a significant expansion in planted area drove a rice production increase of 17.9%. Iran experienced increases in both planted area and yields, leading to a remarkable production growth of 26.8%. Meanwhile, rice production in Egypt declined by 2.3%. In the Southern Hemisphere, favorable agroclimatic conditions in Argentina and Brazil improved rice yields by 21.0% and 2.8%, respectively, raising production to 2.2 million tonnes and 11.4 million tonnes, with increases of 22.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Nigeria and Madagascar also recorded increases in rice production.
Wheat
Global wheat production in 2024 is estimated at 743 million tonnes, an increase of 10.2 million tonnes or 1.4%. The overall outlook for global wheat production is favorable, easing tight supply pressures. However, productions vary significantly across regions.
In Asia, most major wheat producing countries experienced favorable agroclimatic conditions during the 2023–2024 growing season. No widespread agricultural disasters occurred from the overwintering to grain-filling stages, except in Afghanistan, where drought caused a production decline of 6.7%. Other Asian countries saw increases in wheat production. China, the world's largest wheat producer, saw a production increase of 1.8%, reaching 137.15 million tonnes, driven by simultaneous growth in both planted area and yield. In South Asia, wheat acreage in India and Pakistan increased by 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively. However, higher temperatures during the grain-filling period shortened this critical stage, reducing yields by 1.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Despite this, wheat production in India and Pakistan increased by 2.6% and 1.0%, reaching 100.16 million tonnes and 25.35 million tonnes, respectively. The increase in both wheat planting area and yield in Central Asian countries led to production increase of 45.6%, 14.8%, and 15.4% in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, respectively.
In Europe, wheat production was uneven. Due to high irregular rains, the majority of major wheat-producing countries in Europe experienced varying degrees of yield decline, with wheat production decreasing by 5.1%, 5.6%, 1.8%, 0.3%, 1.0%, and 0.2% in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Italy, the UK, and Russia, respectively. In France, yields improved slightly, but a 12.4% decrease in planted area led to a sharp 12.0% drop in production to 29.4 million tonnes, the lowest in five years. In Germany, higher yields drove a production increase of 4.3%. Meanwhile, in the Ukraine, the ongoing war severely impacted wheat production, with planted area shrinking by 13.7% and yields declining by 3.1%. Total production fell to 18.93 million tonnes, a decrease of 16.3%, which may affect global wheat supply.
In North America, favorable water and temperature conditions improved soil moisture levels in the major wheat-growing regions of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. All three countries saw increased yields, while U.S. wheat acreage rose by 1.0%, leading to a production increase of 5.4%. Wheat production in Canada and Mexico grew by 4.4% and 5.4%, respectively.
In the Middle East, wheat production in Iran and Syria increased by 10.7% and 18.4%, reaching 13.32 million tonnes and 3.73 million tonnes, respectively. Turkey experienced a decline in wheat production of 4.3%. In Egypt, where wheat relies entirely on irrigation, production remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.3%. In North Africa, severe drought caused wheat production in Morocco to plummet by 32%, dropping to 4.72 million tonnes, the lowest in a decade. Algeria also experienced drought but to a slighter than in 2023, resulting in a production increase of 19.7%.
In the Southern Hemisphere, Argentina and Australia benefited from favorable agroclimatic conditions, which boosted yields. Combined with increased planted area, wheat production increased by 10.2% and 14.1%, respectively. In South Africa, despite widespread drought, the major wheat growing regions in the southwestern Mediterranean climate zone experienced favorable conditions, leading to a production increase of 5.8%. Conversely, Brazil’s main wheat regions faced severe flooding and intermittent drought, reducing yields and causing a production decrease of 4.5%. Zambia suffered from severe drought, which disrupted planting and yield formation, leading to a production decline of 9.8%.
Soybean
Global soybean production in 2024 is projected at 322 million tonnes, an increase of 3.56 million tonnes or 1.1%. The two agricultural powerhouses in South America, Brazil and Argentina, are expected to a combined soybean production to 153 million tonnes, marking an increase of 4.72 million tonnes or 3.2%. Despite being neighboring countries, Brazil and Argentina experienced markedly different agroclimatic conditions and production outcomes. In Brazil, delayed onset of the rainy season and persistent rainfall deficits during the growing season negatively impacted soybean production. The 2023–2024 planting season was delayed, leading to a 2.0% decrease in planted area and a 1.6% decline in yield. Total production is expected to reach 102.85 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.76 million tonnes or 3.5%. Conversely, Argentina benefited from favorable water and temperature conditions during the soybean growing season. Compared to the severe drought of 2022–2023, soybean yields increased by 4.4%, and remote sensing data indicated an 11.4% expansion in planted area. As a result, soybean production in Argentina is projected at 50.49 million tonnes, increased by 8.48 million tonnes or 20.2%. This growth positions Argentina to expand its share of global soybean exports. In the United States, a slight decline in soybean yields contributed to a 0.5% drop in total production. Brazil, the United States, and Argentina, the three largest soybean producers, are expected to produce 253.32 million tonnes, an increase of 4.22 million tonnes, ensuring favorable global soybean supply. The soybean yield in India, and Russia increased, resulting in production increases of 4.1%, and 2.7%, respectively. In contrast, a slight decline in soybean yield in Canada led to a production decrease of 1.3%. In China, soybean acreage expanded significantly by 7.6%, driving production to 18.65 million tonnes, an 8.6% increase. This growth is expected to reduce the soybean imports.
Food use balance in 2024
Implications of the 2024 crop production estimates on food use demand for selected crops and countries - Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Mozambique, is given in Table 1. For most of the countries, domestic wheat production does not satisfy food use needs, calculated as the per-capita food use multiplied by the population estimates. Results indicate that, food use requirement for wheat in Afghanistan is above the estimated production while for Sri Lanka food use requirement for rice is above domestic production. These results indicate the need for imports, whether commercial or food aid, to fill the gap. Similarly, maize production in Ethiopia and rice production in Mozambique fall short of the food use requirement in 2024.
Table 5.2 Trend in food use balance for selected crops in some food deficit countries in million tonnes (106t)
Crop production in 2024 | Food use requirement in 2024 | Balance in 2024 | Balance in 2023 | |||||||||
Maize | Rice | Wheat | Maize | Rice | Wheat | Maize | Rice | Wheat | Maize | Rice | Wheat | |
Afghanistan | 2.88 | 7.47 | -4.59 | -4.17 | ||||||||
Ethiopia | 6.36 | 3.3 | 7.18 | 6.19 | -0.82 | -2.89 | -1.13 | -2.79 | ||||
Kenya | 2.50 | 0.28 | 3.86 | 2.48 | -1.36 | -2.20 | -1.46 | -2.15 | ||||
Lebanon | 0.16 | 0.82 | -0.66 | -0.66 | ||||||||
Mozambique | 2.15 | 0.39 | 1.97 | 1.59 | 0.18 | -1.2 | 0.34 | -1.14 | ||||
Sri Lanka | 2.42 | 4.7 | -2.28 | -2.24 |
*Food use = estimated per capital food use(FAO) for each crop multiplied by estimated population, country-level population in 2024 were estimated from United Nations Population Division